2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 Update: Obama Is Taking off Like a Rocket
And Romney is taking off like a North Korean rocket
Electoral Vote:
Obama 303.2
Romney: 234.8
Odds of Winning:
Obama: 80.8%
Romney: 19.2%
Popular Vote: +2.1
Obama 50.5%
Romney: 48.4%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
ShadowLiberal
(2,237 posts)Great to see more good news from 538.
Romney's only hope right now is basically that the polls are all wildly off, and polling averages (which 538 is heavily based off of) have only called 5 states wrong in presidential elections since 2000
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)We need to fight like we're twenty points behind.
Jack Sprat
(2,500 posts)That's good news, Doc. Never hesitate to post news like this.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Excuse me for a moment
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)what he is predicting!
zwyziec
(173 posts)Nate's overview of Nevada, as a state with a lot of Mormons, devastated economy, housing market crash, a state where Romney and Ryan should be twenty points up. Yet President Obama is well ahead. Says a lot about the Romney/Ryan ticket!
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)Obama is taking back nearly everything that was lost during that first debate.
Politicub
(12,165 posts)We can't rest. Just a few days to go!!! Plenty of time to make calls to the swing states to GOTV. I so want to see nc turn blue again! It's a long shot, but you have to think big sometimes.
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)I'm taking Monday and Tuesday off work to canvass and GOTV. Got Sunday afternoon penciled in as well. We've got to win NC!!!!
Politicub
(12,165 posts)AAO
(3,300 posts)zwyziec
(173 posts)Today's MA poll shows President Obama up 32 POINTS!!!
That poll shows what the people of MA think about Governor Romney and what he's done for the state.
Romney's toast!
http://www.latinospost.com/articles/6227/20121030/latest-massachusetts-presidential-election-poll-2012-obama.htm
demosincebirth
(12,543 posts)BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)And fix that horrid mistake that was made on Jan. 19, 2010.
madaboutharry
(40,220 posts)NCLefty
(3,678 posts)Response to Doctor Jack (Original post)
Ztolkins This message was self-deleted by its author.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Ohio: Obama 80.3%
Virginia: Obama 65.9%
Florida: Obama 44.8%
Wisconsin: Obama 91.2%
Colorado: Obama 64.5%
Iowa: Obama 78.6%
New Hampshire: Obama 77.5%
budkin
(6,714 posts)Thank God there was so much time left.
demosincebirth
(12,543 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)cheers!
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)lovemydog
(11,833 posts)Welcome here & have fun!
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)We're gonna have a hell of a party come Nov. 7th.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)This means he is only 6.3 points off of his all time high in the 538 Presidential forecast model!
He is peaking at exactly the right time.
The first debate edge has been erased.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Damn you!
aletier_v
(1,773 posts)Yes, it took a lot of hard work by Romney
but he finally managed to erase it.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Obama is only 6 points off his all time high in the odds of winning? He maxed out at 87% on the day after the first debate. He is within striking distance of that number again.
geckosfeet
(9,644 posts)Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)The consensus among online betting sites in the UK is 4:1 Obama.
CBHagman
(16,987 posts)My head is fairly spinning from all the figures being flung around here, but it really all does come down to electoral votes in the end.
barnabas63
(1,214 posts)oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)maybe we can sweep some congress critters in......
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)The worst of the worst right there
bluemarkers
(536 posts)don't forget Ryan!
WinstonSmith4740
(3,056 posts)He may be vulnerable, too.
sheshe2
(83,898 posts)I am from MA. but I so want that guy to go down in flames!
[url=http://postimage.org/image/ydxz5eei5/][img][/img][/url]
Widdle Eric....Palin impersonator!
ProudProgressiveNow
(6,129 posts)the joy would be overwhelming....
Sophiegirl
(2,338 posts)It ain't over yet. GOTV!!!!!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)nc4bo
(17,651 posts)Dang.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)He has it up 8 points
That is why I went after Gravis.
If NC is lost to Romney, Romney has no chance.
If Romney has no chance he wouldn't have gotten a big bump in contributions a couple of weeks ago.
If NC was a toss up or a Democratic win the election is over Romney has no path to 270.
We have something like 700,000 more Democrats in NC than Republicans its just about GOTV, no one can say we don't have a chance in NC.
NC is the lid on the Romney/Ryan coffin.
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)BS pollster extraordinaire weighing things down.
Makes sense this thing called logic.
Thanks!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)mnhtnbb
(31,402 posts)cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)The reason 538 has NC so strong for Romney is that Obama hasn't led in a poll there for a month, and that 538 level of certainly is odds of victory by any margin, not margin of victory.
Without Gravis Romney's lead would be smaller. That's all.
We would have to throw out all the pollsters we don't like. I genuinely don't like Rasmussen or Survey USA, and if we throw out those two plus Gravis then we are left with PPP saying it's a tie.
But that is the same as saying, "I think PPP is right and all other polls are wrong." And that is a perfectly reasonable opinion to hold, but we can't sensibly denigrate a poll aggregator for failing to throw out every poll except the one we like.
FreeState
(10,580 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)And the last 8 polls show 3 with Obama ahead (+3,+3,+1), 2 ties and 2 polls that show Romney ahead by 1 point and Survey USA (+5).
For some reason Nate gives the pro Obama polls only 1 or 2 bars and gives Gravis 4 bars.
There is no convincing polling data that gives NC a lock for Romney. An 80% lock for winning is just without any emperical evidence.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Obama just might pull it off, who knows, but I don't suspect he will. It'll be narrow, of course, but there is a reason Obama isn't focusing on the state in the final days of the campaign.
Duval
(4,280 posts)Manifestor_of_Light
(21,046 posts)Over 3.5 million of us Texans voted for Obama in 2008, but it didn't make our state go Democratic.
tevolit
(76 posts)The more votes for Obama, the better. So, ya, it counts.
JB126
(165 posts)If he wins the electoral vote, but not the popular vote, the repubs will claim he's not legitimate. So every vote counts, even in the red states!
wisteria
(19,581 posts)We can do this, but we have to all do our part.
Yul A
(94 posts)Republicans don't believe in it, of course. They perfer Magic, like a Big Invisible Man in the Sky.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060
Electoral votes +9.1 since Oct. 25, popular vote +0.3.
When Florida finally goes into Nate's tally, that will be a nice jump!
dsharp88
(487 posts)And CO >64%!
FL still for Romney, but down to just 55.1%. Almost a complete tossup there.
NV and OH >80% and IA and NH almost to 80% as well!
demokatgurrl
(3,931 posts)I can't bear to get my hopes up. So little faith in my fellow voters. Fucking sad, I know.
Walk away
(9,494 posts)sellitman
(11,607 posts)Every right wingnut I know is thoroughly convinced it will be a RobMe landslide of epic proportions.
Seriously.
They are going to be so much fun to confront when they learn the truth. I'm so looking forward to it.