2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTomorrows Unemployment Numbers May End Romney For Good
Gallup tonight announced 7.0% unemployment.
Why does this matter? Because the Department of Labor Statistics numbers are usually very close to Gallups numbers anywhere from .1-.3% behind them. Here are the recent months comparison:
Oct 12 Gallup: 7% DoLS: ?
Sep 12 Gallup: 7.9% DoLS: 7.8%
Aug 12 Gallup: 8.1% DoLS: 8.1%
July 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.3%
June 12 Gallup: 7.8% DoLS: 8.2%
May 12 Gallup: 8% DoLS: 8.2%
So in essence, anything over 7.5% tomorrow would be a major annomoly and outta character for the two surveys comparison.
If it drops to 7.5% or less I just don't see how Romney can come back from that.
elleng
(131,107 posts)still_one
(92,394 posts)JiminyJominy
(340 posts)as in expect unemployment to go up tomorrow? or expect them to come down closer to Gallups numbers?
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)While it may not be the 7.2% that people are saying he needs, it will be damn close enough.
imanamerican63
(13,813 posts)But burned Romney in the same pan!!!!!!
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I don't see it.
Even or slightly down would be great.
JiminyJominy
(340 posts)while it would be odd to see the number so outta line with Gallups, i can't see it getting to 7.5 either.
like i posted earlier the chances are:
40%: same (7.8)
25% 7.7
20% 7.9
10% 7.6
5% 7.5
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)For a good part of Reagan's first term, the unemployment rate was at 10% or higher. And Reagan didn't inherit anything remotely close to the economic mess Obama did.
Obama inherited an economic crisis almost equal to the great depression. And on election day he will likely have an unemployment rate close to or equal to what Reagan had in 1984.
Oh... I almost forgot, Obama also had 2 ridiculous wars to end that Reagan didn't have to worry about.
History is going to be very kind to Obama. He is going do go down as a great President.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Just because we never know what it will be. I think anything about 110,000 and it is a wash. Everything above 150,000 and Romney is totally fucked. As long as it isn't below 100,000 then Romney will get nothing out of this. And I don't think anyone expects that.
Tutonic
(2,522 posts)reflect the late submittal of the September California numbers. If California had submitted their numbers on time, the rate would have been 7.9 or 8.0 percent. When the California numbers get "smoothed" in over three or four months the rate very well could be 7.9 or 8.0 percent for October--a slight uptick. If Rachel, Ed, Lawrence and the other "readers" on MSNBC did their own research they would know this.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)FreeState
(10,580 posts)This time of year business hire temporary help - so that may help the numbers some.
That being said - last month, without looking, I was offered 4 jobs. Two for 10k more than I make, one for 20k more and one for double what I was making. I know I was incredibly lucky but I imagine Im not the only one.
Faith9326
(304 posts)If the report is even a little negative, the right wingers will drive that story until election day.
If it's positive, there will be full out panic on the right.