2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBad News for those hoping the Democratic party is hopelessly SHATTERED!!
[link:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll.html?_r=0|
But never the less the party is LESS divided than it was in 2008.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll.html?_r=0
Still, the Democratic resistance is less widespread than it was in the 2008 primary. While 72 percent of Mr. Sanderss supporters say they would vote for Mrs. Clinton this fall, a Times/CBS News survey taken in early May 2008 found that only 60 percent of Mrs. Clintons supporters said they would vote for Barack Obama in the general election.
And I will say again that the only reason Sanders is doing better against Trump in the polls is that there has not been a single attack on him by the media or the right wing.... or Hillary for that matter. If anyone can link to an attack (and I don't mean some obscure radio talk show or end times website, I will take my statement back)
merrily
(45,251 posts)Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)nc4bo
(17,651 posts)All at the same time!
The lies these folks tell are down right killing me merrily.
Jeebus Christo
polio2
(98 posts)by much wider margins than hillary did, so the pumas were always a bluff. On the other hand, hillary's terrible polling, and her consistent losses vs. kasich shows that many bernie supporters really do not like hillary.
Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)JCMach1
(27,566 posts)and you will find a shit show waiting for Trump whoever our nominee is...
He is doing a great deal worse than McCain when you break down the demographics.
polio2
(98 posts)as trump does among women, hillary is almost as polarizing.
merrily
(45,251 posts)As for who will win, who knows?
Hillary started 2008 with a 30 point lead and tons of advantages over Obama. She lost. She started 2016 with a 65 point lead and even more advantages against Sanders. Despite any number of primary and caucus irregularities, she hasn't nailed the nom and we're well into May. She's starting with a 3 to 10 point lead over Trump, and he has barely started on Bill, let alone her.
JCMach1
(27,566 posts)Trump is in deep trouble there.
I say again... whoever, the nominee is.
As for the lead, both individual polls and RCP averages will change over time. The last two weeks Trump has been consolidating the Repug party and has been constantly in the media (no shock there) in slightly more positive ways.
Whoever wins the nomination of the Dem side will get a boost one that consolidation period happens. Both parties will probably get another boost with their conventions. That's just how it goes. From August, we'll see what happens.
merrily
(45,251 posts)see.
I will cite factors, but I try to stay away from predicting. Hell, eve Silver befouled himself a few times this year. I'm not so arrogant that I think I will make better predictions than he did.
JCMach1
(27,566 posts)Reliability and Validity have been compromised.
merrily
(45,251 posts)typical message board skills.
JCMach1
(27,566 posts)I was like, Meh!
IT was a waste of money anyways as they have been so far off as to be laughable at times.
merrily
(45,251 posts)I don't even always know why I do things.
Exit polls are supposedly more accurate than any other polls, so who knows why they cancelled them?
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)mmonk
(52,589 posts)Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)geez people..... prove what you are saying why is that so difficult?
merrily
(45,251 posts)No one has to obey you or prove anything to you in order to post, either. Get over yourself.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Bernie is being relentlessly criticized for not strongly condemning the non-existent riot in NV.
Florencenj2point0
(435 posts)show me what is not true in my post and do it with proof. I am willing to admit that poll is wrong and that I am wrong if you can prove it.
lapfog_1
(29,218 posts)and I currently don't think it is...
It has little to do with either Hillary or Bernie...
and everything to do with Trump.
Response to Florencenj2point0 (Original post)
merrily This message was self-deleted by its author.
Response to Florencenj2point0 (Original post)
BernieforPres2016 This message was self-deleted by its author.
merrily
(45,251 posts)the meme o' the day.
Meanwhile, back in reality:
The Hillary Campaign's Project "Discredit him, disqualify him and unify the Party later."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/06/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-democrats-unity/
And then there's the Hillary campaign's Project "#Bernie Lost Me," which finally explains to me a phenomenon on this board I've been mocking for months because poseurs on this board were not sufficiently skillful to pull it off. Bernie's supporters have taken the and used it for their own purposes, ending their #BernieLostMe tweets with #HillaryLostMe.
Sadly, I can't use it because I never pretended to be a Hillary supporter in the first place.
Response to merrily (Reply #20)
BernieforPres2016 This message was self-deleted by its author.
merrily
(45,251 posts)matt819
(10,749 posts)Atmosphere and attitudes are another. One faction may very well vote for the other candidate, so maybe we're not hopelessly shattered. But we're still fractured.