ALL POLLS ARE WORTHLESS THIS FAR OUT. ASK PRESIDENT ROMNEY

[RealAmericanDem]

Romney was ahead in every poll against Obama at this same point.

Anyone basing an argument on this early polling = garbage in - garbage out.

[JoePhilly]

1. In 2008, President McCain was ahead of Obama right after the GOP ...

... convention.

[Sky Masterson]

2. Romney and Obama's numbers were about as close to each others as Hillary and Trumps are

at this moment.
I think Romney's and Obama's likeability was probably 10-20 points higher than both Hillary and Trumps are now.
This is going to be the lamest horse race in history.
Two three legged horses hopping toward a finish line with nobody watching.

[RealAmericanDem]

5. Where is it written in stone that "likeability" counts for anything.

I have voted in every election since McGovern and the vast majority of the time I voted for what I saw as the lessor of evils.

[Exilednight]

8. likeability often decides elections.

If you want the most accurate question ever asked during polling that routinely picks who will the presidential election, just look at one question: who would you rather have a beer with?

[Sky Masterson]

9. People vote for who they like.

They just do.

[rock]

13. The Media continuously stresses this point

So it is prima facie wrong. A careful examination of it's track record at predictability will confirm this. But it does make for an exciting horse race, and this is why the Press loves it. To repeat: it has NO predictive power.

[pinebox]

14. See the "Beer poll" during W vs Gore

One reason why W won? People liked the guy and said they would rather have a beer with him over Gore.

[nc4bo]

3. Mr. 47% wasn't under investigation either.

HRC better hope her reputation comes out clean else it's gonna be a tough sell.

[RealAmericanDem]

6. She has been attacked by repubs for 30 years.

She is the most qualified to be the next president regardless of the repub talking hit pieces that have stuck.

[pinebox]

15. How can you be most qualified when you voted for the biggest blunder in history

which lead to millions dead?

No, sorry. Bad judgement is a disqualifier.

[onenote]

7. Mike Dukakis wasn't under investigation

And he went from a big lead in the polls in May 1988 to a massive loss.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1988

Jimmy Carter wasn't under investigation in 1980 and he went from a 6-8 point lead in the polls in May 1984 to a massive loss.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_1980

You think you can predict the future. But you can't.

[GreydeeThos]

4. What is the old saying?

Elections do not start until after Labor Day

The only people participating right now are political junkies. The real voters, the majority of voters who decide elections, don't wake up until a month or so before November. Summer handicapping is fun, but it is October when our adversary is conquered.

[Barack_America]

11. Yeah, most voters right now don't even know who Hillary is...

...her negatives or how they feel about her.

Once voters learn the name, "Hillary Clinton" after Labor Day, I'm sure all these negative poll numbers will change.

[GreydeeThos]

16. Time will reveal Hillary to be superior to any Republican

When October gets here, it will be the Republicans struggling uphill. Not only will they be looking at embarrassment in the popular vote, and a complete trouncing in the Electoral College, but the down ballot races are where they will have a crushing defeat. The conservatives will be in complete disarray next January.

[speaktruthtopower]

10. True..

and this election is much less predictable than any other in modern history

[RealAmericanDem]

12. The poll question that has been proven to be the MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR in history

Has been "who do you think will most likely be the next president".

Even the majority of republican answer Hillary.