The Hillary Camp is incorrect to insist that *72% of Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary*

[JimDandy]

To be fair, they were relying on a statement made in a CBS News article that played fast and loose with a statistic culled from their own polling survey. The CBS News/New York Times survey in question was taken between May 13th and 17th. In the survey made available to the public, some of the questions viewable are too imprecise to draw accurate conclusions from. In addition, some of the survey questions were withheld from the public. Also, the results of survey questions that were withheld, while reported on in the article, weren't clearly presented. And the totals of respondents who were supporters of each candidate weren't made available to the public. All of this added to the confusion and may have contributed to the misleading 72% figure making the rounds lately.

That 72% figure is misleading for several reasons. Firstly, the CBS News article that reported the results of that survey made it clear that, when not restricted to a choice of voting ONLY for Clinton or Trump, 8 out of 10 of ALL Sanders supporters surveyed who were registered voters (not just those who were allowed to/participated in the Democratic Primary) wanted to be able to choose another option (write-in, not vote, or vote 3rd party/Independent candidate)! Surprisingly, a majority of both Democrats and Independents also did not want to be limited to voting only for either Clinton or Trump!

(3rd paragraph)
Still, most voters are not content with the options of Clinton and Trump: while 46 percent of registered voters would be satisfied with that match-up, 52 percent want more choices. Most Republicans (55 percent) are satisfied, while most Democrats (52 percent) and independents (60 percent) are not. Eight in 10 Sanders supporters would like other choices.

(survey at bottom of article)
Q28 If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two parties' candidates for the presidency in November, would you be satisfied choosing between them or would you like other choices?

** REGISTERED VOTERS **

---------------------Total Rep Dem Inp
------------------------%---%---%---%
Satisfied-------------- 46---55---47---38
Other choices--------- 52---43---52---60
Don't know/No answer---1----2----1----1

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/

Secondly, since the actual questions were withheld from the published survey, it wasn't immediately obvious to whom that 72% figure referred. Here is the wording from the CBS News' article:

Contentious primary contests on both sides haven't turned off many primary voters from voting for their party's candidate in a likely November match-up between Trump and Clinton, even if these candidates are not their preferred primary choice. Seventy-one percent of Republican voters who did not support Trump in the primaries would still vote for him against Clinton. On the Democratic side, 72 percent of Sanders supporters would vote for Clinton against Donald Trump. (survey showing that this question actually was withheld is at bottom of this article)

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/

So, based on the presentation of the Republican response that appears just before it, the reference to Sanders supporters on the "Democratic side" probably pertains only to his supporters who voted in the Democratic Primary. Left out of that 72% figure, then, are the Sanders supporters who either weren't allowed to vote in closed primaries or who simply didn't vote in the primaries. They would be enumerated in the survey category labeled "Registered Voter-Independents" (calculated total=359*). We know that during this campaign season, that has been a significant amount of his supporters who are registered to vote, and their frustrations over that may partially influence what they choose to do with their vote in the GE.

A New York Times article I found is more clear about from whom the responses to that question were gathered:

However, Mrs. Clinton is still contending with resistance to her candidacy from supporters of Mr. Sanders as their contest carries on and grows more contentious. Twenty-eight percent of Mr. Sanders’s primary voters say they will not support her if she is the nominee, a figure that reflects the continuing anger many Sanders supporters feel toward both Mrs. Clinton and a process they believe is unfair.

“I don’t support her mostly because I don’t trust her,” said Will Lambert, 32, an engineer in Denver who supports Mr. Sanders. “If she became the nominee, I might vote for a third-party candidate, like the Green Party, or I might do a write-in for Bernie. I’m still not 100 percent decided, because I don’t necessarily want to see Trump elected, either. It’s a slim possibility that I might vote for Hillary, but then, I’m at a point in my life where I just don’t want to vote for the lesser of two evils.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/us/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll.html?nlid=56810426&_r=0

Thirdly, the number of respondents broken down by which candidate they supported was withheld from the survey presented to the public. So, the total number of Sanders supporters, as well as the number of Sanders supporters broken down by party (Democratic, Independent, Republican) is unclear. It makes a difference whether the poll is referring to 72% of 200 Sanders supporters or 72% of just 10 Sanders supporters.

*

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL
Party Unity and the November Election
May 13-17, 2016

------------------------------UNWEIGHTED----WEIGHTED
Total Respondents--------------------1,300
Total Registered Voters---------------1,109---------1,031

Registered Voters -Republicans---------345-----------300
Registered Voters-Democrats---------- 362-----------362
Registered Voters- Independents-------402-----------368

Republican Primary Voters--------------379-----------315
Democratic Primary Voters-------------371-----------357

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-national-poll-hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows/

Lastly, that 72% of his supporters who voted in the Democratic primaries and indicated that they would vote for Hillary, if the only choice they were allowed was to either vote for her or for Trump, has probably decreased significantly in this last week. The survey for this poll began May 13th, the day before the contentious Nevada State Democratic Convention, and ended May 17th, while the Hillary campaign was falsely maligning Sanders supporters with allegation of violence at the convention, but before the those allegations were debunked as lies. Negative impressions of the Democratic party by Sanders supporters have soared since then and previous intentions by some of his supporters to resignedly vote for the Democratic nominee have undoubtedly hardened into resolve to not only NOT EVER vote for Hillary, but to now leave the Democratic party.

[rjsquirrel]

1. And who actually has won more "open" primaries so far?

Just asking.

[JimDandy]

3. Please start your own thread to ask that. Thanks.

[JimDandy]

7. Again, *who won open primaries* has no bearing on this thread

And please do hang out and analyze my conclusions. That's why I posted them.

Have to catch some shut eye, so will check back here later this morning.

[JimDandy]

24. Dude, show me where I asked you to leave this thread.

Other than that statement, your hot mess of a post is incoherent.

[JimDandy]

27. That ISN"T asking you to leave. As I matter of fact, I said I'd welcome your analysis

of my post. But not now. Buh bye!

[anigbrowl]

59. Bullshit it's not

What sort of idiots do you take your fellow DUer's for?

[Ohioblue22]

34. Good question who has won more open Primaries

[mythology]

36. Clinton by a wide margin

[rjsquirrel]

37. Ding!!!!

And down goes another sanders talking point.

[PowerToThePeople]

2. Hillary v Trump = none of the above.

eom

[JimDandy]

10. That's surely going to be the pick on a lot of Sanders' supporters' ballots,

whether it is in the form of simply not voting in the presidential race, writing in a candidate or voting 3rd party, as the supporter from Denver pointed out.

[Duckhunter935]

13. So true

[HooptieWagon]

50. Green Party is on ballot in all 50 states.

I don't follow the Libertarians, but if they're not on all 50 ballots they're pretty close. So, while the M$M is going to play up Hillary vs. Trump, there are in fact other options for voters disgusted with those two.
In 2012 Jill Stein got .5% of the popular vote. I think in Nov it will greatly exceed that since both Clinton and Trump are so disliked. I think the Green vote will even exceed the previous high-water mark of 2.5% received by Nader in 2000. I think somewhat similar will happen with conservatives and the Libertarian Party.

[merrily]

5. If she's the nominee, we'll see soon enough. Meanwhile, she should be VERY grateful Trump is such a

poor candidate.

[SamKnause]

6. I received a robocall last week about the elections.

I answered all the questions until I was asked, if the election

were held tomorrow would you vote for Hillary or Trump ?

I didn't answer.

The question was repeated.

I didn't answer.

The call ended.

Hillary or Trump are not the only options.

[Sancho]

8. Who cares about polls months away from the election?? Hillary is the Democratic nominee.

Either people vote for her or they don't. You choose what you want to do.

Personally, I'll be voting for the Democrat. I have since Jimmy Carter and I will continue to do so.

[djean111]

14. Hillary's initial campaign roll-out was based entirely on polls - well over a year and a

half ago - with a smattering of "first woman president" and a lot of links to "stuff Hillary said". And demands that we pledge to vote for her. It was pointed out, back then, that the polls were pretty much just name recognition, but that was denied. This was well before anyone thought Bernie might run - a lot of us were hoping Warren would run.

Either people vote for her or they don't. You choose what you want to do.

Of course, people will choose what they want to do. Personally, Hillary Clinton does not represent what I consider Democratic values. She is a Third Way neo-con, neo-liberal candidate. If that is what today's Democratic Party stands for, then a great many of us will not be standing with the Democratic Party. That's all we are saying.

[JimDandy]

15. Apparently lots of your team mates care. They have posted this many times on DU this week.

I'm just trying to get the correct facts out there. I've been a Dem all my adult life-more than 30 years. This is the first election that my stomach just churns over the thought of voting for the person who most likely will be our nominee.

[Sancho]

40. So...I've been a Democrat longer than that...

and I've voted for winners and losers. Some surprised me by turning out much better or worse than I expected!!

I still won't vote for the repub...and Hillary has won. Get on with it.

[JaneyVee]

9. Yeah, that number is actually higher...

Once the reality of Trump sets in, they will be flocking to Hillary.

[JimDandy]

18. It's actually lower, according to a thorough analysis of this survey.

But we all have an opinion, yours is just not reflected in this survey.

[gordyfl]

11. On Meet the Press Chuck Todd put this NBC poll on the screen:

General Election

Trump - 33%

Clinton - 28%

Neither - 36%

and

Trump - 25%

Sanders - 59%

Neither - 12%

Here's the discussion on those numbers:

ROBERT DRAPER: I think that to me, what's so striking about that, the poll you mentioned before, was the unfavorability numbers between her and Trump. And that we've seen that she's at 54 and that Trump is at 58, I think these are record highs.

CHUCK TODD: Record highs. Yeah They're record highs. And we've actually done something even more fun. And you'll love this, Alex, and Helene, there's 19 percent of our survey that is unfavorable to both candidates. So there's your swing vote, right? So who are these people? Here's what's amazing. I'm going to show you this. Right now, if you look at it, you ask these people, "Who do you favor, Trump versus Clinton?" they're narrowly for Trump, 33-28. 36 percent say neither.

ROBERT DRAPER: Yeah.

CHUCK TODD: Or a third candidate.

ROBERT DRAPER: Right.

CHUCK TODD: Now you match up Trump and Sanders, it's 59 percent of these people are for Sanders. Helene, these are Sanders voters.

HELENE COOPER: They are. And part of what you're seeing is that so many of the Sanders voters are younger people who are very passionate about Bernie Sanders. The Hillary voters are people who want a Democratic president one way or the other. They're not sitting around thinking that we want Bernie--

CHUCK TODD: They're not pro-Clinton, they're pro-Democrat.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-may-22-2016-n578291

[YouDig]

16. It will be higher than that once emotions cool.

[pdsimdars]

17. All this speculative nonsense is a waste of time, as Bernie says, people are starving in

the richest country on earth. . . and you have time for mind games. Seems like more time should be spent on the issues and how to solve them than on the horse race.

Honestly, I don't think Hillary will be the nominee.

[JimDandy]

23. You are so right about the issues!

I voted for Bernie and my state went 72% for Bernie, so I would love it if Bernie were the nominee.

[BainsBane]

19. You're saying Bernie supporters will support Trump then?

or otherwise support him?

Okay, if you say so. I guess it makes sense that people who resent electoral democracy and can't come to terms with the fact that people besides themselves have a say in voting for elected officials would want to stay in the Democratic Party. I still don't think that applies to most Sanders supporters--at least not the ones who identify as Democrats.


As a matter of methodology, you dispute polls because they survey all voters and not just primary voters and caucus attendees, but then say:

Lastly, that 72% of his supporters who voted in the Democratic primaries and indicated that they would vote for Hillary, if the only choice they had was her or Trump, has probably decreased significantly in this last week. The survey for this poll began May 13th, the day before the contentious Nevada State Democratic Convention, and ended May 17th, while the Hillary campaign was falsely maligning Sanders supporters with allegation of violence at the convention, but before the those allegations were debunked as lies. Negative impressions of the Democratic party by Sanders supporters have soared since then and previous intentions by some of his supporters to resignedly vote for the Democratic nominee have undoubtedly hardened into resolve to not only NOT EVER vote for Hillary, but to now leave the Democratic party.

I wasn't at the convention so I can't say exactly what happened, but I do know a lot of people see the situation differently. I've also heard with my own ears the threats of violence and misogynistic insults left on the voice mail of the NV Party Chair, and I do know that fact checkers have ruled that Sanders and his supporters claims about being cheated at the convention are false. I've also observed that some Sanders supporters see any point of disagreement as a "lie" and claim all kinds of things are "debunked" when the "debunking" amounts to no more than someone telling them what they want to hear, without evidence.

But leaving all that aside, your assumption that the majority of Sanders supporters share your particular view of that event and decide that their version of it is more important than the next four years of the country, and that nullifies any polls, is not an empirically sound. Your rage over the exposure/discussion/interpretation of events at that convention do not suffice as evidence to refute polling data.

You have, however, certainly expressed your own intent clearly enough. You plan to not vote for Democrats in the future and instead help Trump win the presidency. Bully for you.

I might suppose those who follow such a course may get some sort of satisfaction from punishing the majority of voters who refused to vote as commanded, and that they look forward to seeing voting rights, reproductive rights, LGBT rights, social security benefits, etc... stripped away through a Trump presidency. None of that surprises me because it's become increasingly clear that the only consistent goal in that movement you feel so attached to is subjugating the majority to rule by a self entitled few. The rage that all Americans are able to vote and that they exercise that franchise according to their own interests is something the Bernie or Bust types seem to resent more than anything else. They seem to be having a great deal of difficulty adjusting to the changing demographics of the US, at least when it comes to how those demographics choose to exercise their votes.

[vaberella]

22. The videos are on youtube you know.

You can see for yourself.

[JimDandy]

26. Good grief, that isn't at all what my post said, so I stopped reading any more of yours

past its title. Maybe it's too early in the morning for you...

[vaberella]

20. I have to say...

in my case she's dead wrong. If she's the candidate, this will be the first time I'll have to write In my vote. Note I'm a black latina woman (Haitian); just in case she & others think she has it In the bag for the black & latina vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. No group is a monolith.

Please see Linda Chavez and Alan West.

Thank you in advance.

[SmittynMo]

32. I have to say,,,

I'm with you. I not black, latina or a woman, and I will write in my vote too, for the FIRST time ever. I'm nothing but an old fart(baby boomer), but most old farts that I know are either not going to show up for HRC or pencil in Bernie.

HRC is going to be in for quite a shock, since she refuses to listen to anyone when it comes to supporting the strongest candidate against Trump and WIN for the Dems. And to think that a year ago, no one thought she'd lose, or even have any competition from the other side. My oh my. It is going to be painful to watch. The sad part is WE ALL LOSE is Bernie drops out.

[JoePhilly]

30. Keep your figures crossed!!!!

[SmittynMo]

31. CBS just stepped up to the

plate to match FAUX in "lies". 72%? Who are they kidding? It's NOT going to happen. Reverse the numbers(27%), and then I might believe you.

[JimDandy]

60. Yes, that ridiculously high percent sounded really off. Parsing and analyzing the details

of the survey showed it was. People are so quick to jump on anything that supports their candidate they simply don't check the facts.

That is true about any candidate's supporters sometimes, but lately it has been a big failure of Clinton camp supporters: unknowingly posting dated, old articles; regurgitating Jon Ralston's false claims about violence at the NV convention without verifying their accuracy by simply viewing the dozens of internet accessible videos of the convention; not noticing that all the main media outlets they are touting as believable regarding the NV convention all used the same, single source-Ralston; not checking further info at links; not carefully reading an article or post (at least 3 Clinton supporters did that right here in my thread!), not analyzing data to see if it supports conclusions, etc.

It is difficult as it is to communicate in this type of setting, and these failures just contribute to that difficulty.

[Ohioblue22]

33. Nice try

[Tarc]

35. The overwhelming majority of Sanders voters will vote for Hillary in the fall

DU's bernie-or-bust crew is not representative of the whole.

[SFnomad]

41. The bitter BoB'ers of 2016 are the same as the bitter PUMAs of 2008

The PUMAs warned us that we needed their vote. That Obama was going to lose without them. That Obama was the "weaker" candidate. That Obama was going to bring out the racists of the Republican party in droves. In the end, the PUMAs were a small, fringe group of bitter losers that were immaterial when it came to the 2008 elections.

The BoB'ers are going to find out the hard way in 2016 that they will be no different.

[still_one]

54. I agree with your assessment. When it comes down between the Democratic nominee or trump

Clinton and Sanders' supporters will come home

[B Calm]

38. She thinks she can win with Republican voters not happy with Trump. Sad. .

[VulgarPoet]

43. The union is being supplanted with scabs. nt

[TwilightZone]

45. That's how you win elections in this country.

Democrats are 36% of the electorate. A candidate needs roughly 50% to win in a two-person race - Obama received 51%. You can't win without some independent and GOP votes.

This is really just basic math.

Independents will split, contrary to the assertions of many, because they always split. Recent polls show them going anywhere from roughly 40/40 (20% undecided) to CBS' recent poll showing them at 51/33 Clinton.

Roughly 20% of GOP voters have indicated they'll stay home or vote for Hillary.

Her assertion is therefore accurate - she'll need crossover votes to win, because everyone needs crossover votes to win. Even from Republicans.

[B Calm]

47. So for a Democratic candidate to win they have to court Republican voters.

Got it!

[TwilightZone]

48. They're running for President of the United States, not president of the Democrats and Independents

By the way, that's a pretty funny assertion coming from a supporter of a candidate whose supporters constantly talk about his crossover appeal and how his message is intended for everyone.

So, it's ok if it's Sanders, but not if it's Clinton.

Got it.

It's simple math. If you think anyone can win a national election without crossover votes, you're being intentionally obtuse.

[B Calm]

49. Like I said got it, I just don't agree with the third way I guess.

[gollygee]

39. I remember tons of Hillary supporters saying they'd never vote for Obama

Here and elsewhere.

But in the long run, they did.

I voted for Bernie in my state's primary, but I will vote for Hillary. I am very concerned about the SCOTUS and I will do whatever it takes to get a more liberal court. Every person Trump has named as a potential nominee is wildly anti-choice. I can't risk that.

[rock]

42. I believe you are right about the incorrectness of 72%

I believe Bernie's camp to consist of a higher percentage of adults. I estimate it at 95%. I don not believe the radical, over-enthusiastic, loud-mouthed, and probably some GOP infiltrators in the Bernie group are representative of his supporters. But I especially don't believe in polls about the GE when we're still in the primary season!

[randome]

44. No one does. Besides, how often have we heard polls mocked when they don't support Sanders?

This sudden reliance on the least accurate type of poll is (not) surprising.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]

[pinebox]

46. 72% isn't voting for this

and Hillary can spin it anyhow she wishes. The truth is, she will garner little Bernie support. Why? Because millions of Bernie supporters are independents!

[JimDandy]

58. They are a BIG portion of his supporters and it's telling that the 2

media giants who commissioned the survey (and are clearly for Clinton, the conservative Democratic candidate) won't release the breakdown of respondents by which candidate they support.

[apcalc]

51. Let us hope we can all join together

To vote against the common enemy, Trump.

It would be a disaster if he wins.

[tonyt53]

52. 72% of Bernie's supporters wouldn't show up to vote for him in November.

Many could have registered to vote before now, but never did, or if they registered, never voted. The trend would have continued through November. Not enough 18-25 year old white males to make much of a difference anyway.

[randr]

53. A client of mine informed me that he was leanin to Trump

He had been an early supporter of Bernie and just will not vote for Hillary. He thinks Trump will change the way Washington works.
He may be right, it will change, but no arguing will convince him it will not be for the better.

[JimDandy]

55. Progressive supporters of Bernie who won't vote for Hillary, would also never vote Trump.

They'd choose another option.

[randr]

61. He may be to "old" for some definitions of "progressive"

He spent most of his life in SF before moving to Colorado to open a large organic winery and distillery.
He is a hard core capitalist and sees the continuation of Washington business a usual as disastrous for his future.
I do not think he is unusual.

[Dem2]

56. Well isn't that just Jim Dandy?

[liberal_at_heart]

57. There will be a lot of Bernie write ins, votes for Jill Stein, and blank

ballots.

[EndElectoral]

63. I'm considering Stein. The Green Party's platform is way more progressive than HRC's.

Will vote for many Dem's under the top if HRC's the nominee.

Appears I can still vote for a progressive and a woman.

[liberal_at_heart]

64. yes it is nice to have a woman worth voting for.

[JimDandy]

65. Without a doubt. It's clear they want to send a message that neither Clinton or Trump

are acceptable. They should probably pick one method, though, so the message is received loud and clear.

[amborin]

62. That's for sure!