2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSam Wang Will Eat a Really Big Bug...
....if Romney wins Ohio. LOL - I love Sam Wang. He is under-rated, IMO, while Nate is a little over-rated.
http://election.princeton.edu/how-likely-is-PV-EV-mismatch-3nov2012.php
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A few days ago, the word was that Team Romney was buying ads in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he wins either of those states I will eat a bug. Ohio...a really big bug. And yes, I will post a photo.
Today I'll address a common concern among the commentariat: will President Obama lose the popular vote? Steve Lombardo is on the case with some Excel curve fitting of a quality that cannot even identify the Debate #1 bounce. Hmmm, someone take his keys away.
Anyway, the short answer: I estimate Romney's chance of winning the popular vote at 6%, odds of 16-1 against.
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BlueState
(642 posts)I have become a huge fan. I still like Nate, slightly disagree about him being overrated.
Did you see that Sam is saying Obama wins Florida and Virginia. That would be nice
Charlotte Little
(658 posts)...I dig Nate. But Sam deserves to be elevated. I'm hoping he is as accurate as he was in 2008. If so, it should propel him to stardom. And, I'm praying for FL & VA to come through. I want a landslide for Obama, personally. Although, I'll be perfectly happy with a 271.
BlueState
(642 posts)...I'll agree 100%!
It might be too much to hope for, but Tues. 9 will be whole lot more stressful if NH, VA and FL get called for Obama early.
I think NH is a sure thing but the other two, well if all goes well....
demosincebirth
(12,543 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Obama lost some ground after the first debate but then has made up half of that ground since. Mittmentum was stopped around the VP debate.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)1) Even at his lowest point in the campaign, Obama still led in the race to 270.
2) Obama won debates 2-3 by almost the same margin that Romney won debate 1. But the MSM as usual missed the story.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)In 2008 he was MORE ACCURATE than Nate Silver.
I don't know why he doesn't get more fame. And unlike Nate Silver, he has never waivered at all with regard with who was going to win. His model was always strong. He uses data only and doesn't let outside influences effect him at all.
Charlotte Little
(658 posts)Richard D
(8,763 posts). . . his website needs updating.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I dont see how Robme can make up those EVs elsewhere.
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)Bar charts, probability curves, regression analyses...
Cicada
(4,533 posts)I find his stuff very educational
http://votamatic.org/
trusty elf
(7,401 posts)[IMG][/IMG]
drm604
(16,230 posts)amuse bouche
(3,657 posts)then changed it to CNN1. Did anyone see it?
Confusious
(8,317 posts)The length of the beetle is the width of a brick.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)Weird Willard is nearly 10 points down here in the last poll I saw.
Efilroft Sul
(3,581 posts)I am reading way too much political coverage.
LostinRed
(840 posts)And Romney used to be a clear lead now that jackass has him barely winning.
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)*throws up a little in his mouth*