2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders; Clinton’s winning b/c more Democrats want her to
Simple and clear for all to and understand.
May 26, 2016 at 1:36 PM
The System Isnt Rigged Against Sanders
Clintons winning because more Democrats want her to be the nominee.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-system-isnt-rigged-against-sanders/
By Harry Enten and Nate Silver
Nick Ut / AP
A week ago, New York Daily News columnist and Bernie Sanders supporter Shaun King tweeted the following about the Democratic caucuses in Washington, which took place in late March:
Whether King intended it or not, he implied that caucuses which often require hours of participation and mean lower turnout are representative of what would happen if a larger electorate had its say. Well, a funny thing happened in Washington on Tuesday: The state held a mail-in, beauty-contest primary so voting was easy, but no delegates were at stake. (The Associated Press has declared Hillary Clinton the winner.) The results are still being finalized, but Clinton leads by about 6 percentage points with more than 700,000 votes counted. Sanders won the Washington caucuses, which had 230,000 participants, by 46 percentage points.
So, turnout was much higher in the Washington primary than in the caucuses, and Clinton did much better. Something similar happened in Nebraska, where Clinton lost the early March caucuses by 14 percentage points and won the early May primary, in which no delegates were awarded, by 7 points.
Nebraska and Washington are part of a pattern. As Sanders fans claim that the Democratic primary system is rigged against their candidate and that Sanders wins when turnout is higher, they fail to point out that Sanders has benefited tremendously from low-turnout caucuses. Indeed, if all the caucuses were primaries, Clinton would be winning the Democratic nomination by an even wider margin than she is now.
Lets start out with the real-world numbers. Here are the delegate and vote totals by contest, including caucuses and primaries, so far:...............................
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Not the way to respond to a question Sanders!!
TWEET
Jon Saker
@Jonathan_Saker
You are asking me questions about Latin America... but right now Im running for president of the U.S."
Come on.
brush
(53,794 posts)RazBerryBeret
(3,075 posts)that alone won't win the election.
according to Gallup 1/16:
American Voters: 42% identify as independents, 29% as Democrats, 26% as Republicans
So even if EVERY Democrat "wanted" her (which we know isn't the case) she couldn't win with only the Democrat votes.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)The majority "want her" only because they're duped into thinking she's the one to beat Trump.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)over here to see if it had been posted. Sure enough!
Riversedge on the job, as usual.
riversedge
(70,253 posts)And I just learned this today.
Candice-a Hillraiser
@artist4ever
Attaching minimum wage increases to congressional pay raises, yes, that was Hillary! #ImWithHer #ShesWithUs #HillYes
Candice-a Hillraiser
@artist4ever
Attaching minimum wage increases to congressional pay raises, yes, that was Hillary! #ImWithHer #ShesWithUs #HillYes
rock
(13,218 posts)Too bad for the BSers that being loud and obnoxious doesn't get you extra points in the election.