Sanders Closes in on Clinton Ahead of California Primary

[imagine2015]

Election 2016
Sanders Closes in on Clinton Ahead of California Primary
What once looked like a knockout for the Clinton camp is now a statistical tie.
By Elizabeth Preza
May 27, 2016


Just two weeks before California voters cast their ballots for the Democratic primary, a Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Hillary Clinton’s once-formidable lead against rival Bernie Sanders has eroded to a statistical dead heat.

Clinton leads Sanders 46 to 44 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error of four percentage points. Back in March, Clinton led Sanders by seven precent. One element to Sanders’ surge is an uptick in independent voters, who can cast ballots in California’s open Democratic primary on June 7.

While Clinton will likely clinch the nomination with or without California’s massive 475 pledged delegates (she’s favored to win New Jersey’s primary, also on June 7), a defeat by Sanders would be a huge upset as her campaign attempts to shift gears and focus on defeating Donald Trump in November.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Clinton, who is losing ground in hypothetical match-ups against the presumed Republican nominee. A Real Clear Politics general election poll from May 24 shows Clinton eking out a win against Trump 43.2 to 42.8. The same poll has Sanders beating Trump by over 10 points.

Which is precisely the case Sanders is attempting to make to Democratic voters. The LA Times explains, “A Sanders win on June 7 would revive at least in part his long-shot argument that party superdelegates should flip to him to increase the odds of a Democratic victory over Trump.”

Clinton’s dwindling poll numbers in California may be at least partially related to the former Secretary of State’s refusal to debate Sanders yet again, in a Fox News/San Francisco Chronicle debate, despite a promise both campaigns made in February.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/sanders-closes-clinton-ahead-california-primary

[Adrahil]

1. So say Sanders wins by 5-10 points. Then what?

He will STILL lose the nomination. The idea of supers flipping to Sanders is ludicrous, not to mention anti-democratic, since Sanders will be BEHIND in pledged delegates, probably by a lot.

[srobert]

5. Every Vote for Sanders Reinforces the Message

Probably, but that won't and shouldn't dissuade Sanders voters from voting for him in the primary. Mathematically, it is still possible, though improbable, that Sanders could win. But even if that weren't true, it is still important for those who disagree with the direction the Democratic party has taken for the last several decades, to communicate their feelings to the leaders. Voting in this primary has provided them with the only effective way to communicate that for a long time. Even if Sanders doesn't win the nomination, he's impacting the conversation about policies. It is important that he get as many votes as possible.

[BlueStateLib]

22. The talk in California is that a lot of voters registered as NPP are

Trump supporters who can't vote in the republican primary or now that he has won will be voting for Bernie just to weaken Hillary

[Ned_Devine]

31. Whereis this "talk" taking place?

Are you implying that Sanders supporters aren't real and plentiful? That's how it sounds, so I'm curious.

[cali]

16. Agree with everything you wrote but you omitted

that such a win would demonstrate what a weak general election candidate she is.

[Garrett78]

44. Did people say the same about Obama when he was losing more than winning down the stretch?

[cali]

46. Hillary is no Obama.

[Garrett78]

58. Let's stick to the criteria you chose as an indicator of weakness.

You said Clinton losing CA would demonstrate that she's a weak GE candidate. Obama lost a majority of primaries (to Clinton, no less) down the stretch in 2008. So, if one is a weak GE candidate, then so was the other.

It's the Obama Coalition that is responsible for Clinton being well on her way to becoming the nominee, so obviously quite a few Obama supporters are just fine with Clinton. Which makes sense, because there's not much difference between the 2 policy-wise. A Clinton Admin can be expected to operate in more or less the same fashion as the Obama Admin has.

[Adrahil]

56. I don't agree, but say you're right...

What would be the point of deliberately doing that? She is GOING TO WIN THE NOMINATION. At what point does beating Trump become more important than trying to make a point.

[democrattotheend]

20. It depends

If this e-mail thing blows up to the point where she looks unelectable by the convention, they might. I am pretty sure the supers would not have let John Edwards be nominated in 2008 if he had won the primaries and then the scandal broke.

I don't think Hillary is at that point now, but I am concerned that the State Department report seems to contradict a lot of the things she said about her handling of e-mail. I don't think she will be indicted but I think it's possible that this controversy doesn't go away. It even occurred to me that perhaps Kerry or someone close to him tipped off Tad Devine (who was Kerry's 2004 campaign manager) and told him Bernie should stay in the race, because they knew this report would be more damning than expected.

If things go really far south with Hillary, I think many on both sides will be glad Bernie stayed in and gave us another option.

[KoKo]

32. ....!

[Adrahil]

57. He doesn't need to "stay in" in such a case.

He doesn't need to release delegates or anything like that. But i know some folks keep hoping for the indictment fairy.

[beachbum bob]

2. doesn't matter, she secures the required number of delegates both pledge and super delegates hours

before CA polls close based on her gains in New Jersey.


California doesn't even exist in the win for hillary of the nomination no matter how chatter their is....

[imagine2015]

4. That'swrong. Why do you think superdelegates are pledged and bound to vote for Hillary or Bernie?

They are not no matter how much you think they are.

Facts are facts. Ignore them if you wish, but you can't change the basic fact that:

Superdelegates are free agents who may vote for whomever they think can do best in the general election against Chicken Trump and is not scandal ridden.

Read the Democratic Party nomination rules!

Bernie didn't write them.

The nomination process was carefully designed to give the Democratic Party office holders and leaders (superdelegates) the power to determine who the nominee would be in the event a candidate doesn't receive enough elected (pledged) delegates to win the nomination.

And the fact is neither Clinton nor Bernie will have enough pledged delegates to win the nomination.

That's just the way it is no matter how much you protest the Democratic Party nomination procedure.

CASE CLOSED

[Gomez163]

3. Survey USA has Clinton up by 18 in California.

I can cherry pick polls too.

[imagine2015]

6. A very limited poll done for 4 TV stations. Talk about cherry picking!

The SurveyUSA poll only involved 804 registered Democrats and was conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Well, SurveyUSA probably cost those TV stations a lot less money than other credible polls.

[Gomez163]

8. The PPIC poll has 552 likely voters and a MOE of 5.7

Survey USA has 803 LV and a MOE of 3.4. So you were saying??

[SFnomad]

11. That poster is using #BernieMath to say their poll is more accurate than yours n/t

[imagine2015]

26. Read the RCP average of all polls. That's the most accurate one on Clinton vs. Trump

Superdelegates and voters in California are going to be looking at that closely before casting their votes.

California voters haven't even weighed in yet on Clinton's e-mail scandal revelations. Do you think after that her numbers will go up against Bernie or Chicken Trump?



RCP Poll Average 5/13 - 5/24

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

43.8 Clinton (D)+1.0

42.8 Trump (R)


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[Meteor Man]

12. The trend is in Bernie's favor

And the horse race narrative is all Bernie.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/us/politics/clinton-sanders-california-poll.html

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-california-polls-clinton-sanders-democratic-primary-htmlstory.html

[TwilightZone]

19. You should probably look at your links.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary.desktop.svg

The trend is clearly with Clinton, not Sanders.

The other two are related to the same PPI poll in the OP. It has some serious math errors and is being treated as an outlier.

[Meteor Man]

25. Right

The trend line that shows Bernie climbing favors Clinton? Got it.

[Meteor Man]

27. March and April polls favor Hillary

For some odd reason I'm ok with that.

[Jitter65]

7. Well, after all that has been thrown at her the past two weeks by Bernie, Trump, the media, and IG

report, the fact that she is still leading tells me how tough and supported she is.

[Gomez163]

9. The poll was taken before that.

[Garrett78]

10. Some wonder why folks keep starting threads about Clinton's inevitable nomination.

They like to think it's because Clinton supporters are nervous, which is pretty silly. I think those threads keep popping up, because posters keep starting thread after thread like this one.

Anyway, another 30 points (74-26) in California and Sanders might have a shot at just barely winning a majority of pledged delegates. If that doesn't tell you how unlikely he is to reach 2026, I don't know what will.

[andym]

13. The negative media stories, especially the Inspector General's report

are hurting her. Not much she can do to stop the bleeding. If the FBI finds no violations of law, then that will help a bit, but not in time for the CA primary.

[pdsimdars]

49. There are clearly violations of law so the question is if the FBI has the gumption to

recommend indictments.

[SFnomad]

14. Unless BS wins CA by at least 40 to 50 points ... it won't make a difference

A win by BS by 10 points is still a nomination loser.

[imagine2015]

28. It will make a huge difference if Bernie wins by 1 point or Hillary wins by less than 5 points.

Remember, California was suppose to be an in the bag landslide for Hillary just a few weeks ago.

[SFnomad]

30. Once Secretary Clinton has secured the majority of pledged delegates, nothing else will matter

Nobody is going to care in 5 months how much Secretary Clinton wins or loses CA by. Unless BS wins CA by at least 40 to 50 points, he will not be stopping Secretary Clinton from crossing the goal line.

[Metric System]

15. That one poll sure is getting a lot of ink.

[TwilightZone]

17. The PPI poll has some obvious math errors. 538 is treating it as an outlier.

290 White, 134 Latino, 125 Other, 549 Total

Whites: 47/41 Hillary +6
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary +9

"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, at least 60/40 or higher. The poll doesn't provide a breakdown, but there's no way Sanders is beating Clinton 60/40 with African Americans and Asians, who make up most of California's non-white/non-Latino 20%.

The crosstabs also don't match up. Household income, for example, matches, but the totals for college/noncollege show Hillary +5. Errors like this exist in many of the totals. They vary from the +2 indicated in the total to +7 or higher.

538 is basically treating it as an outlier, giving it less than 20% the weighting of the SurveyUSA poll from the same timeframe, which shows Hillary up 57/39.

Link to poll data: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

[Betty Karlson]

18. Please surprise us, California, and go for Sanders 70 - 30!

[oberliner]

24. That's the kind of margin he needs

A close win is as good as a loss in terms of the actual pledged delegates.

[Garrett78]

45. Even 70 might not cut it.

He needs to make up for what will undoubtedly happen in NJ and DC.

[Betty Karlson]

47. New Jersey: show us you can be sane too! Feel the Bern - fire the establishment!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

21. Did anyone look at the RCP site? It usually has all the polls and you can look at the trend that way

You look at each poll and compare the numbers for each individual poll.

[oberliner]

23. Hillary can lose California by 10 points and still be ahead in pledged delegates

Bernie needs to win by at least a 20 point margin to really have a shot (plus he needs to pull an upset win in New Jersey).

[B Calm]

52. Most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don’t have any. –Alice Walker

[oberliner]

53. Bernie knows the power he has

And is wielding it as effectively as he can.

[Babel_17]

29. Nearly by definition, these voters are paying attention

That means they're very likely to be aware of the implications of the report from the Office of the Inspector General at the State Department. They should also be aware of who looks best to beat Trump. Etc.

I feel pretty, pretty, pretty, good about how Californians will vote. It is a progressive state, overall.

P.S. http://www.factcheck.org/2016/05/ig-report-on-clintons-emails/

[jwirr]

33. Hillary a private email system is different from a private

server. She was not using a secure system.

[Meteor Man]

34. New California Registration Numbers

Voter registration has seen a boost of 218 percent among Democrats, with more than 1.1 million Democrat and Independent voters now eligible to vote in the presidential primary. The increase is largely due to drastic increases among voters under the age of 30 and Latinos, both core demographics of Sanders’ supporter base.

https://berniesanders.com/press-release/california-voter-registration-surges-sanders-candidacy/

[Babel_17]

35. One can almost argue that this is good for the party

[Meteor Man]

36. And it's all Bernie's fault

Where does he come off helping the Democratic Party? Has the man lost his senses?

[Babel_17]

38. What next, forthrightly raise money for progressives, and not take most of it?

Oh, my poor inbox!

[George II]

37. Wishful thinking. Actually, here is how the polls have progressed over the last five weeks:

April 23 - Clinton 50.3, Sanders 40.3
May 1 - Clinton 51.1, Sanders 40.5
May 22 - Clinton 52.8, Sanders 41.0

Clinton has gained each week since mid-April, from +10.0% to +10.6% to +11.8%, and this even includes that highly questionably PPIC poll.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary

[Meteor Man]

40. April and March polls?

I guess because events are moving so slow on the ground this is great news for Hillary! The Sunday Bobblehead shows should be very interesting.

[George II]

41. What are you talking about? The last FIVE polls used in those calculations were released...

...over the last five weeks. You should click on the link and read the poll dates/results.

[Babel_17]

39. LA Times now covering this development

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-essential-politics-california-polls-clinton-sanders-democratic-primary-htmlstory.html

I see such reporting as a great boost to an already energized group of supporters. So amazing for their efforts to assist in this amazing coming up from behind.

California voters matter. How great it is to see that, and say that.

[George II]

42. That's funny. They only talk about that highly flawed poll (which over polled white males and....

...under polled Hispanics) which was released on the very same day as the SurveyUSA poll (May 22) showing Clinton has WIDENED the gap from 14% to 18%.

Project538 rates the weight of the PPIC at .34 and the SurveyUSA at 1.48, more than FOUR TIMES as relevant.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/#polls-only

Why have they (and others) selectively used only that somewhat bogus poll and ignored the much more accurate SurveyUSA poll?

[Babel_17]

43. I could only guess

Some combination of it being attention getting news and them putting stock in the particular poll. Each of us is free to wonder at the relative percentage.

They are a very prominent paper in California, so what they decide to run with can have an impact on the voters. Clinton may very well be ahead by a statistically significant number, but we lack an unprecedentedly accurate poll to provide an inarguable measurement of where things stand today, this Saturday. But the takeaway for California voters, and Sanders supporters, from the LA Times article is that their votes, and efforts, matter.

Expectations matter. Clinton supporters will show up regardless of the numbers, there's little incentive not to. Though maybe "it's in the bag" can be a talking point with some downside, if a supporter was busy what will one vote among millions in a state that's "in the bag" matter.

But for Sanders supporters and voters living under the dark cloud of "go home, it's over" this is energizing news. I do see it as a movement, so normal political calculation for turnout among them have less weight.

[B Calm]

48. If polls are showing it that close, Bernie will win California!

[pdsimdars]

50. let's have another 70% 30% victory. . . come on CA! you can do it.

[LaydeeBug]

51. Math is math. He has no chance. nt

[oberliner]

54. A tie is a win for Hillary

Bernie needs to win California by 15-20 points for it to make a difference in the math.

[Tarc]

55. What do FL, MI, CA, NY, OH, PA have in common?

Those are states lost by Obama in 2008.

What does this show? That "Candidate X wins Y" is secondary to the actual delegate math.

Perhaps Bernie can win CA, but it won't be enough to get the nomination. It's time for some to come to grips with that reality.

#math not #berniemath

[Amorka]

59. Kicked

For embarrassment purposes on June 7th.

[brooklynite]

62. Golden State Poll (this week): Clinton 51-Sanders 38