2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBenchmark Politics model for California: Clinton 56% - Sanders 44%
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol 20m
Tal Vez
(660 posts)Uben
(7,719 posts)....BUT, if you just count some of the numbers, you can derive at a different solution. People don't realize that if only Sanders' votes are counted, he wins! BIGTIME!
Yeah, I know, you have to count all the numbers for it to be legit. Who made this rule, Clinton? Suppose California is counting ballots and suddenly experiences an earthquake and all ballots are destroyed (or, could be a meteor strike). As it happens, Sanders was ahead at the time of the occurrence, so he wins all delegates. (No proof Clinton received any votes). Bernie wins by default?
Then we have a whole new ballgame!
/sarcasm
LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)Don't know if this will be the result attempted to determine each district based on demographics. Will see how it turns out.
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,950 posts)For those that don't know. Delegates are allocated proportionately based on district election results for each congressional district and then the PLEO and at-large use the state-wide election results.
One of the quirks is that the fewer delegates to assigned the more likely they will split evenly if is an even number of delegates. 26 districts have even number of delegates and I only have 3 that were tied. More could end up tied. 5 seemed to favor Sanders and 18 seemed to favor Clinton.
The other 27 districts will not end up tied because they have odd number delegates.
LuvLoogie
(7,014 posts)That gets her past 2026. Everything else is fireworks and ice cream.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)which are impossible here, they took voting patterns that have nothing to do with voter intent and everything to do with geography and age and built that into this narrative of surprise 'It might not be Bernie country after all'. That material was used with the laughable OPB poll as some sort of pitiful script people tried to push. Some DUer kept posting that the 'older counties' were voting more than the 'younger counties' and such. Nonsense, Mad Hatter type stuff.
That was the first I had seen out of Benchmark and it was hilariously disconnected from reality, as the election results demonstrated rather clearly.
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)From Monday, May 16:
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/732334241158037504
reddread
(6,896 posts)good enough?
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)reddread
(6,896 posts)I just want the votes counted. People who pay people to poll are not interested in improving my lot in life.
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)reddread
(6,896 posts)and lying cheating bullshit criminalized.
thats my camp, right there.
thats where you can find me anytime you need.