2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhere's the Obama coalition?
Dem. Disaster: 115,000+ black and millennial voters from 2008 primary skipped voting in 2016
Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. Democrats liked Obama and came to out to vote for him. The Obama coalition of Generation-Y and African Americans is especially disenfranchised nearly 46,000 millennials and 70,000 blacks that voted in 2008, stayed at home in the first four primary states.
Turnout in the 2016 Democratic primary has been abysmal compared to 2008 when Democrats came out in droves for President Obamas message of Hope and Change. Even though just four states have voted so far, turnout is down by about 330,000 or about 26 percent compared to 2008.
Millennials and African Americans have been fueling this trend of not turning out to vote for Sanders or Clinton the way they did for Obama.
Gen-Y Democrats participation dropped significantly from the last primary. When you compare exit polls and turnout numbers, about 22,000 Millennials in Iowa, 4,000 in New Hampshire, 800 in Nevada, and 19,000 in South Carolina took a pass on voting in 2016 even though they participated in 2008.
http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/02/29/dem-disaster-115000-black-millennial-voters-2008-primary-skipped-voting-2016/
It appears the Obama coalition is failing to vote and is killing the narrative that Obama voters are flocking to Hillary in mass. The truth is less are voting and those that are voting are splitting with younger voters going to Bernie and older voters to Hillary.
Will they turn out for the GE?
Probably not, especially considering that they haven't turned out for any election since 2008 when Obama was not on the ballot.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Everyday....
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Growing among Hispanics and women concerning trump...setting unprecedented levels and those kind of numbers translates into votes....Obama coalition just as strong if not stronger among blacks, women and Hispanics in voting...and supporting Hillary....the so called millennial voters have never made huge impact in voting as they just don't vote and represents the smallest base of actual voters....people over 45 vote...people over 55 vote...
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I can't stand Trump or Hillary.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Several recent polls conducted verify trumps high..In the 70%+ unfavorables with Hispanic and women voters....record highs
icecreamfan
(115 posts)[img][/img]
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Most likely a low turnout election.
icecreamfan
(115 posts)I'd guess VAP turnout in the low 50s
Response to beachbumbob (Reply #5)
nadinbrzezinski This message was self-deleted by its author.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)phone
icecreamfan
(115 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)I guess he should have tried to get us to come out for him. But we are confederates.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)There is a secondary problem, many states have closed primaries and end party registration months ahead of elections.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Probably why Hillary is winning.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)the candidates who've ran this election cycle. If turnout is low Trump wins.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)We decide with our votes. If peope dont vote against him they can blame themselves.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Also, Clinton pissed off a lot of Latino(a)s because of her meddling in Honduras.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)asuhornets
(2,405 posts)Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)A huge reason why she's winning. You just wish they'd go away. Well, DUers did, sort of. They're mostly staying the heck away from the bernista riots on most of DU, but you should not mistake that for a major national power groop simply going poof and disappearing altogether. They're around and will be there in November.
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And it makes sense, because there's little that separates them policy-wise.
"In Voter Support, Clinton Is The New Obama"
"Clinton Voters Like Obama More Than Sanders Supporters Do"
And in 2008, many Clinton supporters weren't going to support Obama...until they did.
Lastly, "Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election."
So many silly memes afloat. It's a full time job drowning them.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Turnout in the 2016 Democratic primary has been abysmal compared to 2008 when Democrats came out in droves for President Obamas message of Hope and Change. Even though just four states have voted so far, turnout is down by about 330,000 or about 26 percent compared to 2008.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Washington. Hawaii. The list goes on. There is nothing to your premise at all. Thin air.
asuhornets
(2,405 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)WH staff began working for which ever one they preferred. I think the same thing has happened to supporters. We voted for President Obama twice but now we have two very different choices. The coalition is here just not a coalition anymore.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and Nevada was the crack heard around the country.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-26/clinton-fans-in-california-torch-sanders-as-egotistical-and-destructive
I think things will come together just fine.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Having the right and ability to vote and deciding to not vote is nowhere near the same as having your right to vote delayed or blocked completely.
If it's your first time using a word, look it up first maybe.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)You know other people can read your comments, right? I have my facts straight. You can't even keep track of what you said and when.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)JFC, you're bad at this.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)So the numbers aren't even close to accurate.
Also, primary voting patterns do not predict GE voting patterns. This is fact and has been proven many times.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)coming up but this is a universal and collective failure in this cycle. Bernie has motivated some new voters but not as many as I'd hoped and the entire primary has not delivered that benefit like it did in 08. Hillary has not been a draw either.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)More garbage on DU from the Bernie wing.
http://redalertpolitics.com/staff/
One of the writers writes for anti-abortion web sites.
Nice.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Don't lie.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)Then post garbage like this--from Feb! which you also didn't address, and demands people refute garbage. No. Either post something reliable, aka, not fascist, or prepare for heavy criticism for catapulting the Republican agenda.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Saw over a 60 point drop of 2008 Obama supporters.