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auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:17 AM May 2016

Oh my goodness, Bernie supporters, PLEASE READ

There is so much confusion about delegates and superdelegates and clinching and math and June 7. I'm finding it very frustrating!

Hopefully I can clarify a little.

There are TWO "magic numbers" you could, if you chose, use to determine whether a candidate has clinched the nomination.

1. With superdelegates: 2383 (or 2384 depending on which source you look at)
2. Without superdelegates: you have to subtract the number of superdelegates (719) from the total, which gives you 1664.

Historically, all news media and people in general have used the superdelegate total when declaring the nominee because, well, that's reality. The superdelegates DO count, and a candidate DOES need to reach 2383 to clinch.

So if you count WITH superdelegates, then you also need to include superdelegates who have declared for one candidate in their total. Any other way of doing it is dishonest. You can't use the number 2383 and then also say that Hillary has to reach that number without her declared SDs. That makes no sense. They didn't do that for Obama or any other presidential candidate after the SDs were introduced.

The other argument is that SDs can change their minds, which is true. But that argument had a LOT more weight in, say, February. It's just dishonest, when Bernie needs something like 70% of ALL remaining delegates to beat her pledged delegate lead, to say that SDs are going to switch.

The final argument is disaster happening. If you are a person who thinks that Hillary is definitely going to be indicted, this post is probably not for you.

(By the way, if you count WITHOUT SDs, Hillary has already reached the magic number. But again, no one counts like that.)

So when I see posts saying things like "Hillary needs 79% of the remaining delegates from the contests that are left in order to clinch" (that is a real example of a post I read just today on this very website) it is really frustrating, because they are both counting SDs in the total she needs and eliminating committed SDs from her total. That is simply dishonest. If you want to make the argument that SDs are uncommitted until the convention and so they shouldn't count toward a candidate's total, then you also have to remove them from the magic number.

As a side note: I see totally fallacious arguments on DU saying things like "Trump has already clinched and Hillary can't close the deal which shows she's a weak candidate", which makes NO SENSE because Democrats have proportional allocation in ALL their contests while the Repubs have winner takes all for a lot of theirs.

Please also have a look at Gothmog's post about how candidates have historically clinched when SDs are involved: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512091073

And here is 538's explanation of why Hillary will clinch on June 7:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/

The truth is, barring a disaster, Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7. And that's a fact.

59 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Oh my goodness, Bernie supporters, PLEASE READ (Original Post) auntpurl May 2016 OP
I believe we can confidently expect a disaster Voice for Peace May 2016 #1
You're welcome. auntpurl May 2016 #9
OK I will appoint you Supreme Commander of the Universe, but maybe only on one condition... Voice for Peace May 2016 #21
I'm going to hang that virtual vow on my wall! auntpurl May 2016 #25
ok but it doesn't work unless Bernie wins. But don't despair, because don't forget that facts don't exist as future entities.. Voice for Peace May 2016 #44
Super Delegates should NOT be counted in the total until the convention when they vote. bkkyosemite May 2016 #52
The number without SDs is 2026 lagomorph777 May 2016 #41
"The whole system ... is convoluted." Yeah it is. (nt) apnu May 2016 #16
Bernie!Bernie!Bernie! coco77 May 2016 #2
women candidates only get credit for 78% of the delegates that men get credit for nt geek tragedy May 2016 #3
Hmmm, that might help explain the berniebrain Hortensis May 2016 #5
there's no evidence that what Bernie is doing is about ego. that's called you projecting your Exilednight May 2016 #45
That's not my belief, Exilednight, nor what Hortensis May 2016 #56
Huh, you left out the only actually important number, which is 2026 Recursion May 2016 #4
Yes, thank you for that addition. auntpurl May 2016 #7
she only has 1769.....she needs enough California delegates to push her over that line. virtualobserver May 2016 #8
I agree. When she has the majority of pledged delegates, that's when she has the sole and exclusive geek tragedy May 2016 #13
VI and PR in the meantime too though. auntpurl May 2016 #17
Thank you. riversedge May 2016 #43
I understand your points Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #6
No, clinching will be in 7 days when the major media, Hortensis May 2016 #10
Nope. morningfog May 2016 #36
Clinching means the same when a woman does it as it did when men did it geek tragedy May 2016 #11
Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #38
No need for replacement or machinations - simply nominate the safer candidate: lagomorph777 May 2016 #42
Unless she wins 2383 delegates before the convention, she has not clinched. Now, whoever wins MillennialDem May 2016 #48
Incorrect. That is not the standard that has been applied to men so it will geek tragedy May 2016 #50
Ummm, it's math. Effectively over and clinching are not the same thing. I don't care that it was MillennialDem May 2016 #53
Same standard applies to Clinton as applied to Obama. geek tragedy May 2016 #54
What the fuck. It's math. Clinch means guaranteed victory. That is impossible unless 2383 delegates MillennialDem May 2016 #55
She is almost certain to reach a majority of pledged delegates by June 7 auntpurl May 2016 #12
Yes I think we agree on all counts Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #19
"I would however still press her to adopt policies and priorities that were important to me, and to auntpurl May 2016 #20
And that, of course, aside from actually determining who is our nominee, is why all votes count Tom Rinaldo May 2016 #26
You're right. auntpurl May 2016 #27
Hillary clinching the nomination could be the disaster. Vinca May 2016 #14
so what you're really saying is that she can't clinch the nomination until after the SDs vote at the Exilednight May 2016 #15
You can think that if you choose. auntpurl May 2016 #18
Bernie has a right to try to steal the nomination after losing the vote, just as everyone else has geek tragedy May 2016 #22
Exactly. bvf May 2016 #37
I question why they believe that they can spam the boards with this tripe Exilednight May 2016 #46
The management seems to be OK with it. bvf May 2016 #57
I've been watching the process since I was a child, the 'super delegates' are not historicaly Bluenorthwest May 2016 #23
Superdelegates (or unpledged, if you prefer) didn't come into being until 1984. auntpurl May 2016 #24
Your OP is very condescending and presumptive, it's full of inaccurate and semi accurate rhetoric Bluenorthwest May 2016 #33
Wow. Ok then. auntpurl May 2016 #34
It's not semantics. It's also not an opinion, the terms are in our Party's regulations which you Bluenorthwest May 2016 #39
Ok nt auntpurl May 2016 #40
You were not paying as close attention GulfCoast66 May 2016 #29
Yeah, I know that. I did not say otherwise. Bluenorthwest May 2016 #35
The entire process the year was supposed to be a coronation for Mrs Clinton Doctor_J May 2016 #59
Why are you arguing truth, math, facts, and logic with BSers? rock May 2016 #28
Being snide as usual, nothing better to do? Logical May 2016 #30
Yeah, it's boring rock May 2016 #31
You guys are so clueless, but not a shock. Her name gets votes. Nt Logical May 2016 #32
The MAJORITY of pledged delegates is 2026, not 1664.... What this means is that if you MillennialDem May 2016 #47
"Barring a disaster"? I think you mean, despite it. lumberjack_jeff May 2016 #49
. Dem2 May 2016 #51
In every contested primary since adoption of super delegates, the winner is announced including SDs Gothmog May 2016 #58
 

Voice for Peace

(13,141 posts)
1. I believe we can confidently expect a disaster
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:21 AM
May 2016

in the form of an FBI recommendation. But thank you for the effort to clarify. The whole system imo is convoluted.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
9. You're welcome.
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:41 AM
May 2016

I agree that is incredibly convoluted. If I had my way, everyone would vote on a mail-in ballot on the same day, with machine counting and hand verification for a certain percentage of the votes. The whole thing would be shortened by about 6 months and we'd all have a nominee much sooner and with WAY less money and contention!

Sadly, no one has appointed me Supreme Commander of the Universe yet, but I live in hope.

 

Voice for Peace

(13,141 posts)
21. OK I will appoint you Supreme Commander of the Universe, but maybe only on one condition...
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:14 AM
May 2016

Bernie's in the White House, AND he gives me the job to appoint Supreme Commanders of the Universe.

Caveat:
In case there are more than one supreme commander to be appointed, I'll be very busy appointing them.
However I can guarantee you the below-described appointment, to be bestowed in plenty of time for his re-election:

• Most Honorable & Supreme Commander of the Universe, Voting Division •.

MISSION: You shall bring forth One (1) Uniformly Honest & Verifiable National Voting System.



You herewith have my fully anonymous, virtuous, and virtual vow which I have herewith and heretoforewhich signed in virtual blood and virtually sealed for posterity with virtual sealing wax, from the ceiling.

Should such a system be so hard to order into existence? I think not. Not with the right appointments.
And with hope? almost anything is possible.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
25. I'm going to hang that virtual vow on my wall!
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:23 AM
May 2016

Of course we disagree about our candidate, but I feel certain that we agree that our electoral system needs a MAJOR overhaul and needs to be clean, fair, and verifiable! Just because my candidate won this time around doesn't mean I don't think this is a TOP priority.

 

Voice for Peace

(13,141 posts)
44. ok but it doesn't work unless Bernie wins. But don't despair, because don't forget that facts don't exist as future entities..
Tue May 31, 2016, 09:24 AM
May 2016

They have to exist in real time in order to be actual facts.
Some do, but most, although cited, don't actually exist.
The ones that don't exist, aren't facts yet. They may never be.
Now, that IS a fact in current time.

bkkyosemite

(5,792 posts)
52. Super Delegates should NOT be counted in the total until the convention when they vote.
Tue May 31, 2016, 10:39 AM
May 2016

She will not clinch the nomination in pledged delegates. And the SD is a way to get their way by choosing lobbyists and cronies to help her over the top. Enough! We have had a enough. If Bernie gets more pledged delegates

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
41. The number without SDs is 2026
Tue May 31, 2016, 09:06 AM
May 2016

which is the closest whole number greater than 4051/2.

Not sure where the idea of taking half of all delegates and subtracting all the SDs came from. Mathematically it makes no sense.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
5. Hmmm, that might help explain the berniebrain
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:33 AM
May 2016

delusion that Sanders will somehow still win, and for some why he should.

Exilednight

(9,359 posts)
45. there's no evidence that what Bernie is doing is about ego. that's called you projecting your
Tue May 31, 2016, 10:09 AM
May 2016

belief. Just because you believe something doesn't mean it's true.

People believe in God, but there's no proof it exists.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
4. Huh, you left out the only actually important number, which is 2026
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:31 AM
May 2016

2026 is a majority of the pledged delegates. Whoever obtains 2026 pledged delegates will essentially be guaranteed the support of the superdelegates.

Clinton should probably cross that line when NJ closes.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
7. Yes, thank you for that addition.
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:35 AM
May 2016

I was mostly trying to address the fallacious argument that Hillary is somehow required to get to 2383 without allocating her committed SDs to her total, but of course you are right. In reality, the majority of pledged delegates (which again, barring disaster, Hillary will also reach on June 7) is what will send her over the top with SDs.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
8. she only has 1769.....she needs enough California delegates to push her over that line.
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:38 AM
May 2016

NJ won't do it.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
13. I agree. When she has the majority of pledged delegates, that's when she has the sole and exclusive
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:46 AM
May 2016

moral claim on the nomination.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
6. I understand your points
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:34 AM
May 2016

And certainly all should be consistent in how they count.

You wrote: "The truth is, barring a disaster, Hillary will clinch the nomination on June 7. And that's a fact." But in your own terminology, if June 7th comes without a disaster she will then clinch. But if a disaster then happened on June 20th she will unclinch?

That calls into question the definition of clinch in the first place. Obviously if your definition of disaster is to be abducted by Martians, it all is neat and clean, but the real world has shades of grey. What if the disaster was something like an FBI Report issued on June 30th that did not recommend criminal charges, thus technically clearing Hillary at least, but which was very strongly critical of her while saying her actions just did not quite reach the level needed for criminal prosecution? What if her approval ratings then sank to 26% and Trump opened up an 12 point lead in the polls over her? Would that qualify as a political disaster? Would that unclinch it for her?

Super Delegates are not pledged. Were Hillary to have won an absolute majority of pledged delegates by June 7th, no that kind of political disaster could not possibly unclinch the nomination for her unless she voluntarily withdrew. That is what "clinching " really means.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
10. No, clinching will be in 7 days when the major media,
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:43 AM
May 2016

as 538 calls them, declare Hillary our nominee. Shouldn't be that way, of course, but it's the way it happens.

It is expected that she will in fact very likely clinch the nomination in New Jersey that day, before the polls close out west in California. In any case, it is appropriate for the nation to swivel to the GE at that point because the GOP is already armed and engaging us in battle. And we can't wish them away any more than you can wish Sanders into the Oval Office.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
11. Clinching means the same when a woman does it as it did when men did it
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:44 AM
May 2016
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved

Same rules apply to Clinton that applied to Obama, Dukakis, Kerry, Gore, etc.

When the voting is over and one candidate has absolute majorities of pledged delegates, super delegates, and total delegates, the winner is declared.

Sanders supporters need to understand they have nothing to gain from attacking Clinton after the voting is over. Nothing.

Response to geek tragedy (Reply #11)

 

MillennialDem

(2,367 posts)
48. Unless she wins 2383 delegates before the convention, she has not clinched. Now, whoever wins
Tue May 31, 2016, 10:17 AM
May 2016

2026 pledged delegates will almost certainly win the nomination and she will cross that number (barring her dropping out of the race).

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
50. Incorrect. That is not the standard that has been applied to men so it will
Tue May 31, 2016, 10:21 AM
May 2016

not be applied to Clinton. She will have a majority amongst all categories of delegates. The race is effectively over in one week and 13 hours.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512093138

 

MillennialDem

(2,367 posts)
53. Ummm, it's math. Effectively over and clinching are not the same thing. I don't care that it was
Tue May 31, 2016, 11:06 AM
May 2016

applied to a man before.

Clinch means guaranteed victory. 2383 is what is needed for that.

I'm a woman, BTW.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
54. Same standard applies to Clinton as applied to Obama.
Tue May 31, 2016, 11:08 AM
May 2016

Obama needed superdelegates. When he had enough, he clinched. Sanders will have lost on June 7.

 

MillennialDem

(2,367 posts)
55. What the fuck. It's math. Clinch means guaranteed victory. That is impossible unless 2383 delegates
Tue May 31, 2016, 11:09 AM
May 2016

are won.

How high did you go in math classes?

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
12. She is almost certain to reach a majority of pledged delegates by June 7
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:46 AM
May 2016

See Recursion's post above.

Again, you're using the word pledged. Pledged means minus SDs.

But that's semantics. I see your larger point. I don't think anything is going to happen with the emails. I think it is a hammer currently being used to bludgeon Hillary with, that is going to fizzle out because most people don't seem too worried about it. It's an administrative error, not an indictment of her character.

However, I don't want to argue about that because that is not what this post is about. We are in agreement that if a disaster occurs (and I agree, an FBI report that severely impugns her competency would fall into that category, as incredibly unlikely as I find that possibility) then SDs could switch. But we also agree that people should be honest in how they're throwing around these numbers. And that was my point in the OP.

Thanks for your reply.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
19. Yes I think we agree on all counts
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:00 AM
May 2016

I'm not hoping for political diameter to befall Hillary. More likely is some continued bruising. I only hope that if "disaster" were to strike (no need to debate just how unlikely that may be) that it happen before our convention. And it is not my intent to "attack" Hillary after voting ends (to speak to a point made above in another reply to me). Should her nomination then appear inevitable, I would however still press her to adopt policies and priorities that were important to me, and to make appointments to her Administration consistent with that. That form of expression is consistent with the rights and even obligation of all Democrats to weigh in on prior to our national convention.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
20. "I would however still press her to adopt policies and priorities that were important to me, and to
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:04 AM
May 2016

make appointments to her Administration consistent with that."

As all thinking people should do with ANY politician. Blind loyalty is not my style. I am a huge Hillary supporter, but I see nothing wrong with expressing ourselves as to what is important to us personally.

On the other hand, Hillary, and ostensibly her platform, have been chosen by the majority of Democratic voters. I wouldn't want to see her deviate too far from it in order to appease some very liberal voters who are upset on the left. I for one am pleased with her platform how it stands. I wouldn't mind some wiggle room, but I don't want her to take huge leaps away from what she ran on. Because the people who voted for her approved of those positions. And I don't think she will.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
26. And that, of course, aside from actually determining who is our nominee, is why all votes count
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:25 AM
May 2016

Because it makes a real difference when all of those decisions are processed, whether whoever came out on top did so with 52% of the delegates won in the Democratic primaries etc. or 68% of them.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
27. You're right.
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:28 AM
May 2016

That old word, "mandate", rears its ugly head.

I believe Hillary will win the primaries with a strong showing, and I believe she will SHELLACK Trump in the general. Then we can take our mandate (and hopefully a Democratically-controlled Congress along with it) and shove it up the Repub's asses!

Vinca

(50,279 posts)
14. Hillary clinching the nomination could be the disaster.
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:47 AM
May 2016

This morning she is up only 4 points on Trump and Bernie is up 15. Hillary people quickly add that if Bernie drops out her lead will increase dramatically. To that I say, if she dropped out, Bernie's lead would also go up dramatically.

Exilednight

(9,359 posts)
15. so what you're really saying is that she can't clinch the nomination until after the SDs vote at the
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:47 AM
May 2016

Convention which Bernie has a right to contest before the SDs actually vote.

Thanks for clearing that up.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
18. You can think that if you choose.
Tue May 31, 2016, 07:49 AM
May 2016

I'm afraid the mass media and everyone else including the owners of this website will have moved forward without you.

This is the way it's done, it has always (well, since SDs came into being) been done this way, it was the same for every single Democratic candidate in all that time, and it's the way it will happen this cycle too.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
22. Bernie has a right to try to steal the nomination after losing the vote, just as everyone else has
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:15 AM
May 2016

the right to criticize him for putting his ego above what's good for the country, should he do that.

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
37. Exactly.
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:58 AM
May 2016

I read these tiresome OPs as nothing more than people trying to convince themselves.

If they honestly believed what they're slapping up several times a day, they wouldn't be so obviously compelled to carry on so.

Exilednight

(9,359 posts)
46. I question why they believe that they can spam the boards with this tripe
Tue May 31, 2016, 10:11 AM
May 2016

And make people change their minds.

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
57. The management seems to be OK with it.
Tue May 31, 2016, 11:21 AM
May 2016

Hell, they positively encourage it, if the recent amnesty is any indication.

I'll save the rant, but there are lots of small minds here.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
23. I've been watching the process since I was a child, the 'super delegates' are not historicaly
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:16 AM
May 2016

touted prior to convention, that's new. Also new is calling them 'super' when what they are supposed to be is 'unpledged' and that's what we Democrats call them in the actual regulations. So that's a load of horse puckey, that those delegates have always been used as aggressive campaign elements. Incorrect. Very much so.
The unpledeged delegates simply have no mechanism legally to make that vote prior to the convention. The vote does not even exist until the convention is called to order.

It's also charming in a 'Reagan was a hero of AIDS' revisionist sort of way to claim that the conventions always go the same way, super smooth and predictable. Like 1968. Or 1980. No variations, it's all cut an dried and easy to call long,long in advance.....


When did you start paying attention to the process? 2010?

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
24. Superdelegates (or unpledged, if you prefer) didn't come into being until 1984.
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:22 AM
May 2016

So neither of your examples (1968 or 1980) makes any sense in the context of this OP.

I've been paying attention to the process since my first presidential election after I turned 18, which was 1992 when I proudly voted for Bill Clinton. I've voted Democratic in every presidential (and Congressional, and State, and Local) election since.

You are very rude and condescending in your post. Why?

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
33. Your OP is very condescending and presumptive, it's full of inaccurate and semi accurate rhetoric
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:47 AM
May 2016

Take for example, 'if you prefer'. It's not what I prefer, it's what the language of the Democratic Party calls them. The term 'super delegates' is a slang term, used by people who seek to pump up the standing of those delegates. The fact that the actual title is 'unpledged' or 'uncommitted' speaks volumes, if they have committed they are not carrying out their duty to be uncommitted. That's the actual fact.

Accuracy in terminology is an aspect of honesty and respect. Inaccuracy in terminology is about agenda. I am using the proper terms while being lectured in slang.
So the 'if that's what you prefer' is snark. You wish to use slang terms that sound stronger 'they are Super Democrats'. What they are is delegates who have no legal means of pledging their vote until they cast the vote. No legal means, and a position that is defined as being uncommitted, not pledged.

The rhetorical abuse of their position is one factor that has been causing so much distrust in the process. And it is not how it was intended to be. They will wind up without any such delegates because they were incapable of using them according to the rules and according to democratic ideals.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
34. Wow. Ok then.
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:51 AM
May 2016

You sure do have...strong opinions about semantics. I'll leave you to it.

As an aside, I genuinely have no opinion about whether the delegates in question are called "super" or "unpledged". I don't care either way. But the vehemence of your reply implies that I do have an opinion, and that I'm using the term as a weapon, instead of just using the same term all news media and online outlets uses for the sake of understanding. That implication is wrong.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
39. It's not semantics. It's also not an opinion, the terms are in our Party's regulations which you
Tue May 31, 2016, 09:01 AM
May 2016

rather obviously have never actually read. And that's my point. You are in fact preaching a sermon on a process without having even read the regulations of that process. Our Party's rules. It's not my opinion that they are not called 'super' in the Party language. That's a fact.
I have the strong opinion that those who preach on a subject should know it well. You have not read the rules and you think they are matters of opinion.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
29. You were not paying as close attention
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:39 AM
May 2016

As you think. The very 2 years you state were prior to Super Delegates. Look up 2008 as see how that worked.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
35. Yeah, I know that. I did not say otherwise.
Tue May 31, 2016, 08:52 AM
May 2016

Did you know that our Party regulations never use the term 'Super Delegate'? But you do, so does the OP. Why is that? Why rely on slang when discussing something like written rules and regulations?

Do you think 'unpledged' and 'super' mean the same things? I don't. Only one of those terms is actually part of our Party rules. Rules, laws, they are made of words and of words alone. So those who won't use the proper terms when speaking of rules and laws really put up the old red flag....

 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
59. The entire process the year was supposed to be a coronation for Mrs Clinton
Tue May 31, 2016, 12:27 PM
May 2016

That's why the sd declared beforehand, to try to preempt the campaign altogether.

 

MillennialDem

(2,367 posts)
47. The MAJORITY of pledged delegates is 2026, not 1664.... What this means is that if you
Tue May 31, 2016, 10:13 AM
May 2016

have 1664 delegates you can win the nomination (if all supers go with you). If you have less, you're completely eliminated.

If you have 2026 you need half the supers. This is almost guaranteed because if you won half the delegates you will likely get at least half of the supers.

Gothmog

(145,335 posts)
58. In every contested primary since adoption of super delegates, the winner is announced including SDs
Tue May 31, 2016, 11:52 AM
May 2016

Great article on how in every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved

?1464557557

After reading a number of impassioned defenses of why the Democratic presidential nomination should not be called next week on June 7th, I got curious. What’s the history here, since the superdelegates were added to the process? When a Democratic candidate hits the magic number of pledged delegates plus superdelegates, are they the nominee?

The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.

Here’s how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....

Summary

Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?

First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.

Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.

The major thing I’ve learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Hart’s 36 percent—even then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.

When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there aren’t a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say you’re the nominee.

Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.

The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the “presumptive nominee”) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had “clinched” the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, Michigan—I hope we’re still not fighting this?).

This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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