5/31/16: New #CAPrimary Poll: Hillary Beats Bernie By 13 Pts! #Hillafornia 51% Clinton 38% Sanders

[riversedge]

Last edited Tue May 31, 2016, 09:11 AM - Edit history (1)

Lnonblonde ‏@Lnonblonde 16m16 minutes ago

New #CAPrimary Poll: Hillary Beats Bernie By 13 Pts! #Hillafornia
51% Clinton
38% Sanders
https://news.stanford.edu/2016/05/31/new-poll-stanford-scholars-shows-age-divide-among-california-democrats-gop-unity-issues/ …



May 31, 2016
New poll by Stanford scholars shows age divide among California Democrats, GOP unity issues

A new poll of California voters by Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center and the Hoover Institution shows an age divide in the Democratic Party and GOP voters slow to embrace Donald Trump. There were mixed views on the superdelegate issue and the state’s open primary system.

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By Jennifer Mayfield

With California’s June 7 primary only a week away, a new Hoover Institution Golden State Poll finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump with large leads in their respective primaries but cautionary signs ahead, and good news for Democratic U.S. Senate hopefuls Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez.
hand putting a ballot in ballot box with California flag in background

A week before California’s June 7 primary, a new poll of state voters by the Hoover Institution and the Bill Lane Center shows an age divide among Democrats and GOP unity issues. (Image credit: Niyazz / Shutterstock)

Hoover’s Golden State Poll, administered by the survey research firm YouGov and designed in conjunction with Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, finds Clinton holding a 13-point lead over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (51 percent to 38 percent).

Trump receives 66 percent in the Republican contest. Why that lofty number is problematic: Mitt Romney, like Trump a nominee-in-waiting, received 79.5 percent of the vote in California’s 2012 GOP presidential primary..............................

[hollysmom]

1. then why is she making a special trip there, she said she had it won,so why bother?

seems like an lot of effort for an unnecessary issue.

[riversedge]

4. Hillary works for all votes, taking nothing for granted.

[George II]

9. Not a "special" trip, she just left about a day earlier.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. "Hillary works for all votes, taking nothing for granted."

[hollysmom]

17. how nice you all have the same meme in place

no individual thinking here.
see the poster above you ha ha ha ha
well, that is not what they are saying on the news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. She's a workhorse, not a showhorse.

[Dem2]

24. And there's the condescension

Since certain supporters seem to not realize that they are doing this all the time, I think I'll just point it out for now

[JCanete]

63. but come on, the exact same line. It may not be groupthink,but it's on message sound-byte marketing

[brooklynite]

20. So if Sanders wins he nomination, he won't be campaigning?

I mean, since he'll be ahead in the polls, there's no need to?

[Bluenorthwest]

39. You posted more than one OP predicting she'd win Oregon by the margin by which he actually

lost Oregon. It was a barrage of redundancy, intended to sell a point that was about as unsubstantiated and absurd as any point could be. As the outcome proved. Your touted polls were very far away from even being partly correct, they were entirely wrong.
I'm sure these polls are golden, it was the others that were defective but this time for sure!!!!!

[CrowCityDem]

29. Turn that around: Why isn't Bernie campaigning in NJ? Are they not good enough for him?

[imagine2015]

34. Hillary canceled her New Jersey engagement. Opted for California

[CrowCityDem]

35. Again: Why is Bernie insulting NJ by not being there?

[anotherproletariat]

57. Good point. The people of NJ are feeling shunned by Sanders. nt

[hollysmom]

61. and now shunned by Clinton. that is OK, most people have no respect for us anyway.

like most of the Clinton supporters here who keep claiming my vote does not matter. Not only here , but I have been told Clinton does not need my vote in the GE and I should leave the party because I do not support her before the convention.

[DLCWIdem]

58. perhaps she wants an even bigger win

She is already set for a blowout in NJ she is up by 28 pts. So why not spend 1 extra day and see if she can get a blowout in CA. I hat to tell you but every poll has her up by more than that 2 points that LOD keeps extolling. As to predictions, one of you Sandernistas predicted that he would gain 100 delegates in just 3 states KY, OR, and IN. How'd that go for you?

[SidDithers]

2. DU rec...

Sid

[karynnj]

3. New results but old polling - polled before the IG report nt

There is something to HRC cancelling a NJ event for a CA one.

[DCBob]

5. The IG report is already old news.

Most dont care about this issue unless she is actually indicted... which she wont be.

[karynnj]

15. Premature unless you have some polling or other proof that this is the case.

Certainly, this being a top story at this point is not helpful to her trustworthy and honest score. Some early voting preceded the release because it starts 2 weeks before the election, but some would be right when the story broke and for the days where it was a big story.

[DCBob]

23. There will be some impact but minimal.. imo.

[karynnj]

31. I hope you are right, because I do agree she will be the nominee and it goes without saying, I hope

she wins.

Part of this sad legacy might be that she will enter the White House with absolutely no honeymoon and high negatives. She is incredibly lucky that Trump won the Republican nomination - and he has even higher (well deserved) negatives. She is also lucky that the Senate seats up are those that were up in 2010. Even without a Presidential election, it was an odds on likelihood that we would win seats.

This means that it will be a tough 4 years - for her and us. I sincerely hope that this was a learning experience and she realizes that she now will have no benefit of the doubt if anything like this happens as she is President. At minimum, she will get some Supreme Court Justices confirmed.

[beachbum bob]

6. IG report doesn't effect hillary supporters....

none of that noise does

[karynnj]

11. It doesn't impact hard core HRC supporters, we don't know how it impacts those not firmly on either

side. There has, to my knowledge, been no polling results based on late last week.

You might be right, but you could also be wrong. Here, I wonder if the HRC change in schedule is due to her internal polling - maybe showing that CA is in play and NJ is not.

[beachbum bob]

12. at this point, really not many undecideds...the biggest issues is GOTV as hillary has already

secured the nomination

[geek tragedy]

28. CA is certainly closer than NJ, but that's because NJ will be a blowout

Sanders isn't making any campaign appearances there either, because it's a lost cause for him (similar demos to NY and PA, closed primary, no resources to expend there)

[seabeyond]

18. I believe unless looking for a gotcha or desperate, the IG report confirms a whole lot of nothing.

[riversedge]

30. IG is off the radar. time to move ahead-->Jerry Brown just endorsed Hillary.....

Jerry Brown Verified account
‏@JerryBrownGov

An Open Letter to California Democrats and Independents http://www.jerrybrown.org/an_open_letter_to_california_democrats_and_independents …


An Open Letter to California Democrats and Independents
Posted by Jerry Brown 26pc on May 31, 2016

On Tuesday, June 7, I have decided to cast my vote for Hillary Clinton because I believe this is the only path forward to win the presidency and stop the dangerous candidacy of Donald Trump.

I have closely watched the primaries and am deeply impressed with how well Bernie Sanders has done. He has driven home the message that the top one percent has unfairly captured way too much of America’s wealth, leaving the majority of people far behind. In 1992, I attempted a similar campaign.

For her part, Hillary Clinton has convincingly made the case that she knows how to get things done and has the tenacity and skill to advance the Democratic agenda. Voters have responded by giving her approximately 3 million more votes – and hundreds more delegates – than Sanders. If Clinton were to win only 10 percent of the remaining delegates – wildly improbable – she would still exceed the number needed for the nomination. In other words, Clinton’s lead is insurmountable and Democrats have shown – by millions of votes – that they want her as their nominee.

But there is more at stake than mere numbers. The Republican nominee, Donald Trump, has called climate change a “hoax” and said he will tear up the Paris Climate Agreement. He has promised to deport millions of immigrants and ominously suggested that other countries may need the nuclear bomb. He has also pledged to pack the Supreme Court with only those who please the extreme right.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Our country faces an existential threat from climate change and the spread of nuclear weapons. A new cold war is on the horizon. This is no time for Democrats to keep fighting each other. The general election has already begun. Hillary Clinton, with her long experience, especially as Secretary of State, has a firm grasp of the issues and will be prepared to lead our country on day one.

Next January, I want to be sure that it is Hillary Clinton who takes the oath of office, not Donald Trump.

With respect,

Jerry Brown

[CrowCityDem]

7. Funny that good polls for Hillary never get mentioned, but closer ones are all over the news.

[George II]

8. But they're wrong! There was a poll last week that showed Sanders down by only 2%, and that....

....is the ONLY poll that was released in California that really matters!

[obamanut2012]

10. I think it'll be by 8 points, not this much

It's not a 100% closed primary.

[auntpurl]

16. I agree, between 5 and 9.

Not double digits. Although I would take it!

[seabeyond]

22. I will take what we get but I think so too. Repugs are playing in this one too, no repug to vote for

[Dem2]

25. I wonder if we'll get an indication who they voted for

This would be independent Republicans voting in the dem primary

[Surya Gayatri]

13. Massive K & R. Thanks for posting. Good for Team Hillary.

[grossproffit]

21. The other poll was an outlier.

[geek tragedy]

26. But did they poll birds? nt

[ucrdem]

27. This is so over

[riversedge]

36. NBC's current Dem delegate math: Clinton is just 72 delegates shy of 2383

so so over. Yet Sanders himself, as Howard Dean says--keeps giving his fans false hope.


HinterlandG Retweeted
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 1h1 hour ago


NBC's current Dem delegate math: Clinton is just 72 delegates shy of 2383

[B Calm]

32. Same poll said she would win Indiana too.

[JudyM]

33. Another poll out today: she lost her lead against tRump in NH polling for the first time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html#polls

Keep celebrating her wins against Bernie, though, that matters so much more than her strength in the General.

[Bluenorthwest]

37. Poll: Despite Bernie Sanders' Crowds, Hillary Clinton Ahead In Oregon--48-33 (OP by you 5-11)

Of course that's not what actually happened at all. The opposite happened. Bernie by double digits. So using that as context, what do I make of this OP? More hot air....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511940218

[ucrdem]

38. Oregon is not California.

Perhaps you've noticed.

[Bluenorthwest]

41. My point is that the OP has touted some hugely absurd polling in the past with great certainty.

And that the outcomes proved how outlandish the predictions were. I was born and lived for decades in CA, still pay taxes both there and in my State of residence.

The OP and many others on DU are so clueless about both States that they bought into polling that Oregonians openly laughed at. The OP touts any polling that favors her narrative without putting any light on the validity of the polling. That's why the OP and other Hillary posters were eager to repeatedly tout that silly ass Oregon polling. It was very wrong. The OP believed it. You probably did too. And that says plenty about the intellectual rigor involved.

How wrong was the OP about Oregon? Entirely. Hugely. Fully. As wrong as it gets.

[frylock]

55. I have noticed, being a resident and all.

There is no support for her in CA. Her massive ad buys, bailing out of NJ, and scrambling to get Jerry Brown in front of the cameras to announce his endorsement show things aren't going as planned here in the Golden State.

[KingFlorez]

40. California isn't as white as Oregon

California is 46% non-white, which means the Democratic electorate is more than 50% non-white. That spells doom for Sanders.

[Bluenorthwest]

42. Here is you from the OP's bogus Oregon thread:

KingFlorez
11. Oregon is a closed primary

Those are prime territory for Clinton.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511940218


How'd that turn out for you? You've never been to Oregon, that's obvious. Have you been to CA?

[KingFlorez]

43. I LIVE IN CALIFORNIA, DAMN IT!!

THERE GOES YOUR LITTLE BERNIE DEFENSE!

With that said, I don't give a damn about what I said in Oregon, because demographically it was better for Sanders and enough independents change their registration to crossover in time. With California, it's really not a demographically friendly area for him. There was only one poll out of Oregon, but we have seen more than one out of California with Clinton leading.

AND I LIVE IS CALIFORNIA IN CASE YOU MISSED IT!

[Bluenorthwest]

45. Good for you. You claimed she'd win Oregon because it's a closed Primary but she lost.

Now you have other claims. The OP made the same claims about Oregon. OP now has other claims. The crap you and the OP came up with about Oregon was wrong and not at all thought through.

I'm a CA native, lived there far longer than I have resided in Oregon, still pay taxes to both States and have ties that will last beyond my own lifetime in CA. But you have never been to Oregon, it's glaringly obvious.

USA Quick Facts. It will give you the ability to do demographic comparisons of any States you wish.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00

[frylock]

56. SO DO I.

California is going to Bernie. RIGHT FUCKING NOW!

[Sheepshank]

44. And I clearly remember reading BS Supporter posting articles that Bernie wins 50 states

it was so freakingly absured that it got posted by an outside source referencing Du and this poster...who by the way seems to be on the low down lately...thank goodness, no more silliness.

[Bluenorthwest]

46. I see no link I posted no such thing. The OP here posted the bullshit I linked to not some random

supporter of Hillary. I have no idea what post you are ranting about. I have even less idea as to why you think that should apply to me in any way. Are you responsible for all things posted by other Hillary supporters?

So what's your drama here exactly? You have words but they don't make any sense. You say you saw something once posted by someone who is not me which means I should not point out to the OP that the OP has been consistently incorrect and agenda driven in the posting of polling on DU. I don't follow your logic.

[Sheepshank]

47. well bless your heart, of course you don't remember it.

go to your Bernie group, or even JPR and see if anyone has the balls to deny it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251650529

http://www.democraticunderground.com/128050045

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251956339

[Bluenorthwest]

48. Why should I care to research your claims? You said you saw it, I asked you what that had to do

with me. What does it have to do with me? Nothing. Which is why you double down on insults and evasions rather than answer a single thing I said.

Are your responsible for that which is posted by every Hillary supporter who said Bernie is a crusty old Jew who will drop out after Iowa? No you are not. So don't vomit your recalled posts at me unless I made them.

JPR stands for Jefferson Public Radio. They are NPR, local. What's that got to do with anything?

It's like reading the works of the Mad Hatter on one of his less lucid days.

[Sheepshank]

50. i posted those links on edit...go back and look

how embarassing

[Bluenorthwest]

49. How is that my business? I pointed out that the OP has posted bogus polling in the past.

So far the OP has not responded but you are spewing at me about posts I did not make. What is your problem?

You refuse to address what I say and toss at me the words of strangers you wish to smear me with? That's not right.

Here is a post by a Hillary supporter. If I own all Bernie people, here is what you have as associate:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1059701

[Sheepshank]

52. You pointed out how one person made a one State predictive mistake

I simply showed one of your own, making an even bigger blunder.

As for your link, about a subject matter that is completely unrelated to the topic at hand, that person was tombstoned and deservedly so....while this posts from one of your buddies, was left to stand by a stacked jury:

On second thought I take that big FUCK YOU back. I wouldn't fuck you even with someone else's dog's cock. You have proven yourself to be utterly and irretrievably morally repugnant. You have stooped to depths that are lower than whale shit in the fucking Marianas trench. There's a lot of pressure down there for anyone with a shred of fucking decency but once your balls are shriveled to the obvious pinhead size it affects the brain and there's little left than to attempt to smear the shit on the walls when it didn't stick whilst you were flinging it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/110730422#post39

[CrowCityDem]

53. Bernie also guaranteed he would win NY, PA, etc.

The Oregon was one poll in a state where only one was done.

The California poll is one of many done that all show Hillary with a solid lead, aside from the one poll everyone is citing (which has flawed methodology: +6 with Whites, +9 With Hispanics, yet only +2 for the state?). They're different scenarios.

[kstewart33]

51. Wow. It's looking good for Hillary.

Thanks for posting!

[frylock]

54. Hillafornia?

Oh hell fucking no.

[LAS14]

59. k & R

[workinclasszero]

60. Nice!

Go Hillary!

[Vinca]

62. I'm more concerned about whether she can beat Trump.

Those polls make my stomach hurt.