2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPolitcalwire 27 last minute swing state polls Obama leadsd 23 out of 27
http://politicalwire.com/Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (Zogby)
Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (YouGov)
Florida: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Iowa: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)
Michigan: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (Foster McCollum)
Michigan: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (YouGov)
Nevada: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 43% (YouGov)
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)
New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (New England College)
North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Columbus Dispatch)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Zogby)
Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Ohio: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Susquehanna)
Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Morning Call)
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (YouGov)
Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Zogby)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov
AaronMayorga
(128 posts)CthulhusEvilCousin
(209 posts)Obama will probably take Ohio, Virginia, and then all the other states I was never worried about. Florida is a nail biter, and probably Myth will take it. However, that doesn't seem like a huge deal. Colorado looks really close to me in the polls though. How important is CO?
grantcart
(53,061 posts)with IA, NV and WI no solid all the President needs is one of these; Florida, Ohio or Virginia.
If he wins NC then he could win without any of those three.
Romney has to run the table. Obama has to win a couple but he is leading in all but Florida, but FL is close.
Also he couls steal NC back as well which makes it impossible for Romney to win.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)and I would dearly love to break the 300 EV threshold.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)You'd think it would go Democratic in 2012 considering that in 2010 the Dems managed to win the Governorship & the Senate seat in what was a bad year.
And Romney lost the primary to Santorum by 5 points.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Cha
(297,818 posts)winning in Michigan?!
Secret_Society
(476 posts)Not that that means they're wrong but that number doesn't really indicate a negative shift or a shock.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Nate Silver:
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight