NC raw data ( final early vote tally )

[MyNameIsKhan]

Last edited Mon Nov 5, 2012, 07:28 PM - Edit history (4)

Some terms to understand before you read following data.
Total counties in NC: 100
Total Obama friendly counties: 35 ( Here Pres Obama won in 2008 finally vote tally )
Total R friendly counties: 65
===============================================
New Data starts here
Total registered voters in Nov 2012: 6631904
Total registered voters in Nov 2008: 6233330
Total number of votes in Nov 2008 election: 4233088
Voting population: 67.91%

As of Nov 2012
Total registered D's : 2861950 -> Net change from Nov 2008: 11971
Total registered R's : 2047916 -> Net change from Nov 2008: 53422
Total registered I's : 1702972 -> Net change from Nov 2008: 317485
Total new voters: 382878

O vs R in the Pool is 60/40 due to demographics and changes in Obama friendly 35 counties

Total Early Votes in 2012: 2,738,943
Obama Margin in Early Votes extrapolated from 2008 county wins and 2012 polling: 59/41 ( Refer to High Point Univ, PPP polls )
Obama Margin on Election day votes based on 2008 actual results: 39/61
Approx total Obama early Votes: 1615976

Approx total 2012 votes (6631904 x 67.91%): 4503726
Remiain votes on Nov 6th: 1764783
Approx Obama votes on election day (1764783 x 39%): 688265
Total Obama votes on election day: 2304241 ( 51.11 % or win by 52k votes)


You see margin or error is little but we have great ground game and plan is to hit 2% additional D voters...

We will NC by 25-75k votes tomorrow

===============================================

2012 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 2091583
2008 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 1994144

2008 total votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 3174651

2008 Obama Early voting advantage 64/36 ( extrapolated based on final win margins )
2008 Obama total voting advantage in 35 friendly counties 60/40 ( based on correct data )
2012 Obama early voting advantage 35 friendly counties 64.266/35.7 ( extrapolated based on 2008 final win margins )

----> Pres Obama running ahead of 2008 totals but this also means many R voters have voted early, Obama is winning on demographics 60/40, which means we are up additional 50k votes here.

2012 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636741
2008 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636625

---> Here no early votes change in 65 R friendly counties

2008 Total votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 1058437
Pres Obama finally tally in republican counties 39.5/60.5 ( this is based on final vote tally )

2000 Census population increase 21.4%
Population is divided into 15-25% and the ones where population decreased

Top Obama friendly 35 counties part of 15-25% increase = 18
Total 35 counties where population decreased = 0
Total R counties part of 15-25% increase = 14
Total R counties that lost population = 7


PRESIDENT OBAMA IS OUTPERFORMING 2008 NUMBERS AND WE WILL WIN NC ON TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT ULTIMATELY WE WILL BE ON TOP BY 25-75k VOTES


Here is the link to my sheet

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2TJUJ43Q0JKQ2xacVhFbG9idkE

[Robb]

1. And THAT is how you do an "inside baseball" political post.

Bravo! Nice work.

[grantcart]

2. Gravis says that the Republicans are up by 9. Silver says 80% Romney probability

can you add a link to your source?

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. As far as Nate is concerned, his data is based on polls and some state internals

I am sure NC will be VERRRRY VERRRY close, based on early votes we will win by 25-75k votes...

I do not see how Romney wins NC... unless Dems do not turn out on Tuesday.

Based on early votes this does not seem like the case.

[grantcart]

12. A predictive model that is accurate for Hawaii and Utah but cannot get it close in NC

isn't worth much.

You find the worth in the model in the closest elections.

[MyNameIsKhan]

14. I agree but in my view early voting as large as in NC

is even better than polling ( though it does give some projections ). Ofcourse NC is complex and it looks like many R voters are in the line than 2008 but we have 60/40 advantage in demographics which will be about 40k new voters. So if we can come near to 2008 votes or my wish ( Less R voters in top voting counties ); btw counties do not change voting blocks in 4 years. We will win.

Anyhow NC is very very close.

[grantcart]

24. I agree 100%

Early voting is usually better but in NC with one stop registering and voting the polls are seriously undermined.


Polling requires the pollster to qualilfy the respondent as non-registered, registered, or likely voter.



In NC there is only those who vote and those that don't during early voting there is no such thing as an unregistered voter.


I do not think that the pollsters took that into account.


I am not sure that you can in NC.

It looks to me that we are going to win by about 45,000 votes.

[David Zephyr]

61. North Carolina GOTV. I've never seen anything like this before.

Registering and delivering those new voters to voting. Wow!

[calimary]

49. Welcome to DU, MyNameIsKhan!

It might be really cool to have our own poll numbers cruncher here in DU! I would love to see you proven correct in your forecast for North Carolina! Glad you're here - we need you! There's an election to win!







Now get to work!

[Wednesdays]

36. Gravis says?

[MyNameIsKhan]

41. Gravis is cooking numbers like Meth

Then they snort it and post online.... I am amazed how these guys come mainline and Nate picks them up. There is no poll and cooking polth.

[VirginiaTarheel]

3. 100 Counties in NC

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. Hmm, I see 99 in my excel sheet...

let me check which one is missing.

[John2]

18. You

are missing one because Obama won 35 counties out of 100. So you are missing one of his counties.

[MyNameIsKhan]

21. thanks for pointing out.... I fixed it.

[TalkingDog]

15. yep

Alamance
Alexander
Alleghany
Anson
Ashe
Avery
Beaufort
Bertie
Bladen
Brunswick
Buncombe
Burke
Cabarrus
Caldwell
Camden
Cartere
Caswell
Catawba
Chatham
Cherokee
Chowan
Clay
Cleveland
Columbus
Craven
Cumberland
Currituck
Dare
Davidson
Davie
Duplin
Durham
Edgecombe
Forsyth
Franklin
Gaston
Gates
Graham
Granville
Greene
Guilford
Halifax
Harnett
Haywood
Henderson
Hertford
Hoke
Hyde
Iredell
Jackson
Johnston
Jones
Lee
Lenoir
Lincoln
Macon
Madison
Martin
McDowell
Mecklenburg
Mitchell
Montgomery
Moore
Nash
New Hanover
Northampton
Onslow
Orange
Pamlico
Pasquotank
Pender
Perquimans
Person
Pitt
Polk
Randolph
Richmond
Robeson
Rockingham
Rowan
Rutherford
Sampson
Scotland
Stanly
Stokes
Surry
Swain
Transylvania
Tyrrell
Union
Vance
Wake

[MyNameIsKhan]

19. Actually my excel sheet has 100 sorry for the error

I have update the post to 65 R friendly counties

[TalkingDog]

47. No worries. Just trying to help.

n/t

[grantcart]

25. this is what DU such a crazy place. Every thing gets checked and rechecked.

I learned a long time ago that if its an area you are not familiar with its better to shout up and take notes.

[MyNameIsKhan]

27. Yes I got to know today

I will keep that in mind now onwards... My excel sheet is good but to translate i Made an error... I will post my sheet shortly.

[ncgrits]

6. Great work, Khan!

We should make you NC Secretary of Explaining Stuff!

Great news. Great explanation of the numbers!

[MyNameIsKhan]

8. Thank you!

I am also working on GA numbers but we will not win this times but 2016 is going to change big time... as 2000 and 2010 census will kick in.

[amuse bouche]

7. Great info

thanks

[MyNameIsKhan]

40. Thgank you!

[flowomo]

9. nice work, much appreciated! But how did decreased pollution get in there....

just a typo, of course, but you might want to fix it.

"2000 Census population increase 21.4%
Population is divided into 15-25% and the ones where pollution decreased"

[MyNameIsKhan]

10. Thanks for the check!

One extra beer goes long way...

My Champagne is chilling for Tuesday....

[flowomo]

16. proof I read your whole analysis...

which it certainly deserves.

[DonRedwood]

11. We welcome you and your math skills to DU!

[MyNameIsKhan]

17. Thank you! I love this forum....

Thanks to all who spent time and effort creating this site.

[VirginiaTarheel]

13. Excellent work

[MyNameIsKhan]

42. Thank you!

We will VA as well tomorrow... I am running data for NC, VA, GA and OH

[Lex]

20. This is exactly why the Obama campaign sent Bill Clinton today & Michelle Obama tomorrow. nt

[MyNameIsKhan]

45. Yup!

Here is the thing, NC is strange in case of early voting. I think all dem votes are IN and if even if R voters plus demographics come on tuesday, we win, the caveat is we have 100 votes advantage and that will determine final outcome.

[CoffeeCat]

22. It's the same type of numbers in Iowa...

Our DEMOCRATIC early voting numbers, today in 2012, are surpassing our 2008 numbers.

Ok, that's huge. 2008 was a juggernaut. No one EVER expected that 2012 numbers would surpass 2008. But they are.

And so far, in early voting Registered Dems are ahead by 20 percent of Registered Republicans.

It's simply stunning. I'm in the swing state of Iowa.

No wonder Axelrod went on Fox News and gloated about Romney not being able to catch up in Ohio.

No wonder Obama is rocking out and dancing and singing on stage--at his campaigns.

They know they've got this.

The numbers are all falling Obama's way--like an avalanche of HELL YES!!!!

[VirginiaTarheel]

26. Wow, Iowa, FL, Nevada, and NC Dems have done awesome job of Early Voting. Come on Ohio, do us proud!

[MyNameIsKhan]

43. OH has done well, except the CUA county, thats our vote bank

What I hear from local reps is that CUA is going to vote big time on tuesday, how ever R elections guys is going to disenfranchise votes. We will win....

[russspeakeasy]

23. Damn nice job. Thanks.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

28. K&R nt

[MyNameIsKhan]

44. thx!

[Cane4Dems]

29. Wow! Amazing Analysis

Thanks for you work! - this made my day...Awesome analysis

[MyNameIsKhan]

39. Thank you....

[Avon Barksdale]

30. This data

Where are you getting it from?

[MyNameIsKhan]

31. From many sources

NC early vote data is on the web
Easy access is carolinatransparency.com

2000/2010 census
www.census.gov

[Avon Barksdale]

33. Alright

Cool.

[MyNameIsKhan]

52. Welcome to DU!

[ellisonz]

32. Welcome to DU!

[zwyziec]

34. Bravo, Hooray, Well Done, Kudos!!!!

To MyNameisKhan:

Very well done and thank you for this very encouraging analysis.

[MyNameIsKhan]

37. Thank you very much!

Hopefully NC is turning BLUE

VA is BLUE
OH is BLUE
NV is BLUE
NH is BLUE

We are running GA and it will turn BLUE in 2016....

[12AngryBorneoWildmen]

35. I've got swing state envy, BAD.

[MyNameIsKhan]

38. Well me too!

We will win OH, VA and NC

FL I am not sure, after Rick Scott is running his numbers....He is ACIDIC.

[12AngryBorneoWildmen]

46. You're giving ACID a bad name. nt

[MyNameIsKhan]

48. yes how about NITRIC ACID

he is so bad that we see RUST when he moves near any of us....

[SaveAmerica]

50. I think the EV Dem difference is because of Voter Reg and Early

Voting One Stop registration. And then GOTV to bring those guys out!! OFA is brilliant!!!

Thanks for putting the numbers together and bringing them here!! I love how surprised everyone is, we North Carolinians have been trying to tell everyone what's what here, I guess they thought we were just trying to fire everyone up!!

[MyNameIsKhan]

51. Thank you!

Always truth will prevail!

I see my Pres speaking in CO...

He is a fine MAN.

[Blackhatjack]

53. IIRC Obama won NC in 2008 by just 14,000 votes

As a member of the Obama voter protection team in 2008, I was at the last voting precinct to close on election night in NC due to a glitch earlier in the day --the Precinct Chairperson was driven to the polling place by her son with the blank voting ballots in the trunk. She got out forgetting about the ballots and he drove off to work. We stayed until blank ballots were delivered and every person who was in line to vote was able to vote.

We knew it was going to be close and every vote could be critical. As I recall the final count was Obama by 14,000 votes in a state with millions of cast votes.

This time voter protection people will have to be vigilant to ensure that all votes are properly cast and counted, as any variance could change the outcome given how close the voting is expected to be.

I will not be surprised if NC takes several days to determine the eventual winner. We have early voting, history of strong absentee voting (especially Repubs), home to several military bases which will produce votes to be counted days after election day, and lots of precincts that use electronic voting machines that scan paper ballots which have to be calibrated and checked to be sure the totals produced are accurate.

For these and other reasons NC is likely not to be a quick decision. Let's hope Obama does not need us to top 270 electoral votes needed to win. However, if NC becomes the linchpin for the winner, we could hold up declaration of a winner for several days --and those who worked so hard to put Obama over the top in NC will deserve tremendous credit.

[MyNameIsKhan]

59. Lets hope we can win this...

Hopefully we have Voter protection team in place as robust as 2008.

[NCarolinawoman]

60. Interesting post. Thanks. n/t

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

54. thanks, great analysis,we now have a visual template,this will booster our confidence n\t

[struggle4progress]

55. gotv!

[MyNameIsKhan]

56. New data added

Demographics and new registrations.

[ffr]

57. Now let's win this thing!

24 hours for 4 more years. That's not too much to ask.

GOTV!

[marions ghost]

58. Read your numbers

Now I'm going to light a candle for NC on my shrine....

good work Khan

[David Zephyr]

62. K&R. Great report! Go North Carolina!!!!!

[sufrommich]

63. Wow, thanks for all the work you

put into this.