2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat does presumptive nominee mean?
http://www.npr.org/2016/06/05/480861380/what-does-presumptive-nominee-meanELVING: It means a candidate has secured enough votes to win on a first ballot at the convention and be the party nominee. Now it is not the same thing as calling that candidate the official nominee. That only can happen at the convention. But late last month, Donald Trump had enough pledged delegates and enough public commitments from the unpledged delegates - and they have those in the Republican Party - to cross his threshold of 1,237 delegates. That's when the Associated Press and NPR and the other major news organizations started calling him the presumptive nominee.
See? Nobody is trying to trick you. This is just how we do things in the Democratic party.
MARTIN: So, Ron, help us understand. What is Bernie Sanders' argument here?
ELVING: He says that the superdelegates should not count toward a presumptive nomination because these people are not legally bound by any rule to actually vote for her. They just say they're going to. And he and his supporters point out that these people could still change their minds. They could still switch. And yes, they could. But so far, none of them has. And there are over 500 of them. And the only switch we're aware of in this campaign season was one from Sanders to Clinton. And yes, there were some in 2008, as we hear often. But there were really only about 30 who really switched from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama, nothing like the kind of numbers that Sanders would need.
So saying over and over that 'they could switch!!', really isn't helping your case one bit. There would have to be an unprescidented switch for anybody but Hillary to be the nominee. This means that the 'contested convention' idea that keeps getting tossed about is nonsense. You cannot contest the convention when the first ballot will give us our Official Nominee. I have no idea who created that fabrication that the convention would be contested in some way if people were really really really really really really really really mad that their side did not win at the ballot box.
I hope this helps folks who keep repeating the same thing over and over understand how this thing really works.
22 delegates to 2383.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)banging your head against the brick wall. I made the personal decision to stop having this silly argument weeks ago. It's equivalent to arguing with a child that keeps saying "I know you are but what am I?"
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I know that it will not be what people want to hear. But we must have a few sane articles from good sources just in case anybody wants to read a few facts here. We might have lurkers who only see The drama. Eventually stuff like this will just seem normal. Hopefully.
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)He's 74 and no one has paid much attention to him his entire career. I can see where he's having difficulty walking away and making up any reason to keep the party going.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I feel kinda sorry for all of them in a way
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)It will determine how influential he is past June.
Making statements like "I can't bring any votes" and "It isn't my job to campaign for the nominee to my supporters" puzzles me. He is essentially saying he has nothing to offer and you can choose to ignore me.
I would think at this point he would be looking at congressional races and senate races he could increase turnout for but at the end of the day, I don't think he thinks that way. His emphasis on believing he is leading a "revolution" makes it contradictory that he would attempt to influence policy by traditional means. You know, the ones that normally work.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)He is basically wasting what infkuence he could have by refusing to work with us. Sad to see
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)and his supporters
an angry old socialist turned sore loser, Can't accept he lost to a woman....
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)Some people view that as a positive. Politics is about making friends and doing favors to get what you want. From the outside some people are aghast at that but it is fundamental human behavior that has existed since we first started building permanent settlements.
He had 30+ years in politics to work within the democratic party to move it in the direction he felt it should go. He has mainly decided to snipe from the outside to remain pure in his own mind.
He only ran as a democrat because the media wouldn't cover a third party run.
Clinton has a floor and a ceiling of support in any primary contest nationally for the democratic nomination. I'd estimate her floor is around 45% and her ceiling is about 55%. Some states the Clintons are more popular some states less popular. There was going to be a long primary process with her as the front runner. He hasn't out organized Clinton. He out organized Martin O'Malley to be the alternative and he has failed to push her down to the 45% area.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Unless in addition to Bernie Math, there's 'Bernie Time.'