Another indicator of an Obama victory..even landslide..

[Vietnameravet]

Last night on ABC news ,they showed someone who has done research which indicates a higher correlation between the actual results of an election and who people think will win, than between the actual results and who people say they will vote for which is what traditional polls measure.

It's as if the electorate has some kind of insight into these things that pollsters cannot capture..

With that in mind, and if that is true..Obama is about to receive a landslide victory..Gallop has posted this on their website

A majority of Americans continue to believe that Democratic President Barack Obama will win re-election Tuesday over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, by 54% to 34%. These views are roughly similar to where they were in May and August, although slightly more Americans now do not have an opinion either way.


These results are based on interviews conducted from Oct. 27-28 as part of the Gallup Daily election tracking survey, conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast. It is unknown what effect the storm will have on Americans' voting preferences or the impact of the storm on Americans' perceptions of who is most likely to win the election.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158444/americans-give-obama-better-odds-win-election.aspx

[HERVEPA]

1. How about we leave the crazy science to the Rethuglicans. (nt)

[BlueStreak]

2. That actually makes some sense. It is a form of "crowd source"

If a pollster asks what you personally will be doing, that is representative of a single individual. And a lot of the polls may ask only 500 people in the ENTIRE COUNTRY in order to publish a "finding."

But if they ask you who you think will win, that is a representation of your entire family and circle of friends/colleagues, and that may be 500-1000 people.

In addition, that may be a more reliable indication of whether you will actually make the effort to vote. You may say you are going to vote, but if you believe the other guy will win anyway, you may not actually make that effort, regardless of whether you told the pollster you are definitely voting.

[Vietnameravet]

4. This is a good answer..makes sense..and if its true Obama is going to crush Romney..

Damn well better be..or I am moving to another universe..

[courseofhistory]

3. This is also

interesting from the link:

Americans Generally Have Been Accurate at Predicting the Winner

Americans have a good track record regarding their collective prediction of the outcome of presidential elections, correctly predicting the winner of the popular vote in final Gallup surveys taken in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Although Americans are not as optimistic on Obama's odds as various "prediction markets," such as Intrade.com, where the president has often been projected as having a probability of winning of more than 60%, the prediction markets and the American public in general find Obama the favorite against Romney. The 2012 presidential election outcome will help determine how accurate Americans are in their personal predictions.

[CENTER][IMG][/IMG][/CENTER]


Anyone want to discuss why you think this is (that more people think Obama will win)?

[BlueStreak]

5. Because 95% of them never listen to Faux, MSNBC or CNN

They are basing their feelings on things other than what the beltway dumnbasses are regurgitating every day. They are judging based on whether they think Obama did a good job, whether the country is getting on the right track, what they hear their coworkers saying, how their 401K is doing, what is happening to their home value, etc, etc.

Edit: this post is responding to the question "why do people think Obama will win?"

[TroyD]

6. Yes, I've read over the past week that this is historically

One of the best indicators of who will win.

[johnlucas]

7. Oh oh somebody said the L word! LANDSLIDE

Posted Wednesday October 10, 2012

ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

Oh my God! They even have my 15% to 20% margin in those results!
Obama 54% to Romney 34% is a 20% lead.

Just. Like. I. Said.
John Lucas

[reflection]

9. Welcome to DU

Thanks For Your Concern (TM)

[Charlotte Little]

10. I heard this on a show on NPR on Sunday...

I was driving and turned to 89.9 while the show was already in broadcast, so I don't know who it was discussing it, sorry, but he was saying that this is a very significant indicator of who will win. Reason being is that it is based on what voters will state with confidence. When you ask people who they may vote for, that can change all the way up to the time they step into the booth. But when you ask "who do you think will win?" - they answer based on what they are hearing from their families, friends, coworkers, church members, neighbors, etc. They rarely lie (or give a response that could change much) and they rarely say the candidate they are voting for just because they want their candidate to win. They tell the truth because it gives them a chance to contribute with confidence on an important topic. The man went on to state that given O has 54% & R only has 34%, we may in fact see O truly outperform on election day.

I call it "ear to the ground" and have felt that way all along. Nate Sliver, Sam Wang, Alan Lichtman, Charlie Cook - they have all had their ears to the ground this entire election. I won't exhale until after tomorrow, mind you, and I'm nervous too (it is my nature to be), but I feel very confident that O will win - and if he wins bigger than expected, all the better!