New ABC News electoral map

[BootinUp]

PoliticalPolls
‏@PpollingNumbers

#NEW ABC News electoral map*:

Clinton 262 Electorals
Trump 191
Toss-ups 85

*including both solid & leaning states.



https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/740667205914873856

[writes3000]

1. Thanks for sharing!

[Jack Bone]

2. Looks like President Trump to me

He can't go much lower than where he is now.....huge upside with that guy.

This is Hillary's peak too

Gonna be a long 4 yrs..

[joshcryer]

4. LOL, Trump has peaked.

[Jack Bone]

17. lol all ya want...I'm telling ya..

Y'all are getting played! Look at what's going on right friggin' now!! All the talking heads screaming about him being racist...we knew that late last year, beyond a shadow of a doubt. Everyone recuse his statement...blah blah blah..

Nobody's talking about his cheatin' ass University which will piss off is supporters, if they knew the truth...no, everyone's talking about what he called some judge, which sadly...most of his supporters prob'ly agree with. Now whenever a reporter asks about the Trump U...he's gonna slime away w/ this judge stuff and they'll eat it up.
Effectively neutralizing a very strong negative of his.

He's a master manipulator of the media...laught him off at your peril.

[Florencenj2point0]

29. poor you, I'll send you some smelling salts

for Hillary's inauguration day.

[leftynyc]

35. LOL - that you think this is the

only dirt there is on don the con is simply adorable. This isn't even an appetizer, this is an amuse bouche.

[MyNameGoesHere]

42. Switching to GE mode is hard for tRump

Democrats should find it easier to make the switch once they come to grips with reality and stop fighting the fair primaries. Let go,

[LanternWaste]

71. Not buying into your prophecies is hardly indicative of being played...

Not buying into your prophecies is hardly indicative of being played... simply more analytical and critical than may suit your narrative.

[TeacherB87]

83. They can't handle the Truth.

Part of this guy would be happy if Trump won just so he could say "I told you so." That viewpoint is beyond petty. No worries though, he will be proven wrong in a few months.

[Amishman]

70. i don't we can predict anything at this time

This is shaping up to be an election unlike any other

-Two candidates who are already viewed unfavorably and both excel at negative campaigning
-higher than normal scandal potential (Email issue / Trump U scam)
-anti-establishment feelings stronger than any time in recent memory
-potential for extreme levels of spending (clinton fundraising machine vs Kochs and Trump's person fortunes)

[tabasco]

76. Actually, H. Clinton is trending down,

as Trump is trending upward in the battleground states.

[onenote]

7. Hilarious post.

Just don't quit your day job.

Florida isn't going to be a toss up. It will go for Clinton readily.

[Exilednight]

55. just like it went for Gore?

[Florencenj2point0]

59. yes, exactly

only bush won't be governor and Harris won't be secretary of state and Nader won't be running, no theft of Fl. Won't you be happy about that? I know I will. Meet up at Hillary's inauguration?

[onenote]

66. Because Trump is the same as Bush?

Even the Bushes are refusing to support Trump. There are still Jeb supporters in FL who are pretty bitter about the way Trump belittled their candidate.

[Exilednight]

67. and their were McCain supporters who were bitter about the way

Bush belittled John in South Carolina.

[onenote]

68. And in May 2000, McCain endorsed Bush

Meanwhile, it's June and there is no sign of an endorsement of Trump by Jeb Bush, either George Bush or any other member of the Bush family.

Rather significant distinction.

Maybe you just didn't know about McCain endorsing Bush less than three months after the SC primary.

[Exilednight]

72. After George H W Bush, Reagan never endorsed anyone. it's not

Uncommon for former Presidents to not endorse a candidate.

[onenote]

84. Reagan didn't endorse after 1992 because he had Alzheimer's

His condition was revealed by Nancy in 1994, so he wasn't going to be endorsing anyone.

But George HW Bush endorsed Dole in 1996, his son in 2000 and 2004, McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
And GW Bush endorsed McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

So, yes, it is relatively uncommon for a former president not to endorse their party's candidate.

On the Democratic side, Jimmy Carter kept a low profile after getting crushed in 1980, but by 2000 he was back to making endorsements: Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and Obama in 2008 and 2012.

And Bill Clinton campaigned for Kerry in 2004. And while Bill Clinton obviously preferred Hillary in 2008, once Obama had the nomination, Clinton supported him and did so again in 2012.

[GulfCoast66]

73. Exactly

Especially with the 100,000s of new Puerto Ricans poring into the state fleeing the conditions on their Island. They are pissed that congress has done nothing to help, and guess which party that is.

Hell, even the Cuban vote is no longer in lockstep with the repubs anymore.

[onenote]

79. Right. Cuban Americans are not the largest segment of the FL Latino population

Cuban Americans make up around 29 percent of the FL population.
Those of Mexican and Puerto Rican origin make up 35 percent.
And South American and others make up the remaining 36 or so percent.

[workinclasszero]

12. You need glasses

Clinton 262
Trump 191

[Florencenj2point0]

31. Just wait until Obama and Liz Warren start Campaigning for her

and she has another grandchild....
This is going to be FUN!

[Lord Magus]

21. Looks like you can't read a map.

You see an electoral map where Georgia is less than solid Republican and conclude that the Republican candidate is going to win the presidency?

Then again, your assessment that Trump has a "huge upside" shows you can't read reality either.

[Jack Bone]

23. Well he can't really go further down..

and look @ all the states he has @ this time...when all the media are almost calling a flat-out racist....look @ his #'s!!

When they do go back up....whhich they will...those yellow states won't be yellow anymore and some of the light blues...will be yellow (MI , WI) if not red.

This is about as good as it gets for Hillary..

[leftynyc]

36. Not really sure who you think you're kidding

but it's certainly not anyone with a triple digit IQ. Try a right wing site.

[Lord Magus]

53. Trump has the reliably red states, the ones that don't care or flat-out approve that he's racist.

The media is calling him a flat-out racist because he obviously is. And you're nuts if you think MI and WI are in play.

[heaven05]

54. what gets me is

his rallies have been racist with POC, men and women, pushed around and beaten by racist trumpchumps and not a peep by our so called MSM. Yet all the sudden pants are on fire because he openly threatens an Hispanic judge. America is more than racist it is disgusting in its disregard for people who were the only ones to be enslaved for generations by Trump precursors and are still being shot down in the streets and WALMART, choked and broken while in custody in a police van and hanged, while unarmed and no threat.

All the sudden he's a full blown racists???!!!!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Now,that is not what the map indicates.

It looks like Trump , much to to your dismay, is having a rough go of it.

[sufrommich]

30. I get the feeling you're going to be very disappointed when

Hillary becomes President.

[Jack Bone]

34. oh I hope so...I'm gonna knock on many a door trying to make it happen nt

[NCTraveler]

40. You should win something for this post.

[LexVegas]

47. You mad bro?

[Jack Bone]

48. nope...I think many here underestimate Trump. nt

[LexVegas]

49. Is that what appeals to you about him? nt

[Jack Bone]

50. no, I like his tiny hands nt

[SidDithers]

51. Oh FFS...

Win-win for you either way, though, eh?

If Trump wins, you can post "I told you so" until the cows come home.

If Hillary wins, you can complain about her for 8 years.

Sid

[wyldwolf]

56. Bernie folks just see numbers differently than the rest of, that's all. Bless their hearts.

[Florencenj2point0]

60. It's Bernie math

[MariaThinks]

61. it's scary that someone can look at that map and draw that conclusion

I seriously worry about some people's cognitive skills.

[sharp_stick]

65. Thanks for your concern n/t

[TwilightZone]

69. That might be the funniest post I've ever seen on DU.

Nicely done.

Oh, wait...you're serious?

[Dem2]

78. nah, we're being trolled

It's all in good fun I think.

[yardwork]

75. Where do you get that? According to the map, all we need is one toss up state.

[brooklynite]

3. I'm confused: I've been told that national polls say Trump will win...

Those voices couldn't be wrong, could they?

[BootinUp]

5. I thought instead of 10 threads for each state or each poll

this would be more helpful.

[morningfog]

9. It's not a great map for Dems. A lot of work to do with a

well known candidate who has a history of losing ground as time goes on. OH, MO and NH need to be shored up ASAP.

[Stallion]

15. What Are You Talking About-It Basically Couldn't be Much Better

8 votes away from 270? Its a winning map because Democrats have historical edge in ALL toss-up states except North CarolinaSome us want to complain

[yardwork]

77. I like your attitude! Let's get to work!

If Trump keeps talking, we might even turn Texas blue.

[MoonRiver]

63. I think those polls are about as accurate as the ones that showed a close race in CA,

between Bernie and Hillary. Gotta keep that horse race going, donchaknow.

[msongs]

6. just the obama states will do the job nt

[Cali_Democrat]

8. Hillary will win Virginia handily...

Game over.

[morningfog]

10. Is that based on polling or just what you had for lunch?

[lancer78]

18. No,

It is based on the fact that the democratic candidate for senate won in 2014 (A Republican wave year) while being asleep at the wheel. The DC suburbs and Hampton Roads areas have grown so much that they easily outweigh the rural parts of the state. It will be close, but HRC will win it.

[FSogol]

41. Agreed. Too many military familes in Northern VA and around Newport News. They won't be voting

for Trumpy. McAuliffe is also popular and the State' African Americans will tip the scales for HRC.

[TlalocW]

11. And the thing is this map won't matter

For the sizable slice of Americans who get their news from Fox, who instead concentrate heavily on national polls, more often than not, designed to make it so the republican seems more popular.

In 2012, O'Reilly and Dennis Miller were talking a few days before the election about how Romney was ahead in their (national) polls, spelling doom for Obama. Like a lot of you, I was getting my info from sites that showed how electoral votes stacked up based on who was leading in each state so my only worry was republican shenanigans, but I wondered why they were talking about national polls. They're not completely stupid - they must know how elections work. I figured it could have been a combination of the following

1. To depress democratic voters from coming out
2. To make it easier for shenanigans to occur and not seem so suspicious. I think Rove's going off the deep end when Ohio was called for Obama meant that he thought the fix was in, and either whatever was supposed to happen couldn't, or the people who were supposed to make it happen chickened out.
3. To make it easier to try and make Obama "illegitimate."

I worry that number 3 will happen again but on a larger scale with Trump's supporters going off the rails when Hillary wins.

TlalocW

[dawg]

57. "They're not completely stupid ..."

Yes, they were.

At the end, the Romney campaign was diverting funds from Ohio in order to spend them in Pennsylvania. I thought at the time that it surely must have been a desperation "Hail Mary" play. But, no. They thought Ohio was already in the bag and were hoping to "extend" their mandate.

It just goes to show, that if you spend enough time spreading bullshit - you'll eventually start believing it yourself.

[Hortensis]

74. VERY true. I remember a political scientist

explaining how he examined people in DC and found that they were as able as one would expect to detect lies and deceptions on issues they were professionally involved with but that they tended to "drink the Kool-Aid" being served on other issues, i.e., shared the most common misconceptions being spread around the nation.

[LiberalFighter]

13. Cook Report

Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings

[Recursion]

14. Now: note who carried the yellow states in the Democratic primaries

1 for Sanders, with 4 EVs, and 5 for Clinton with 81 EVs.

[thesquanderer]

19. Clinton clobbered Obama in New York in 2008, Obama still easily beat McCain there in the general.

Winning the primary doesn't say anything about your strength in that state in the general... different competition, different voting pool.

Most primary voters will rally behind their party's nominee.

Winning those states isn't about appealing to those who voted in your party's primary......more important is appealing to the much bigger group who didn't.

[Recursion]

20. It says you have a functional operation on the ground already (nt)

[seabeyond]

16. Republican shrinkage. Nt

[Nonhlanhla]

32. There's a Seinfeld joke in there, somewhere..

[seabeyond]

33. One of my favs. Jerry, tell her about the shrinkage. Nt

[Nonhlanhla]

37. What is odd is that it's happening DESPITE global warming...

Maybe that's why they don't believe in global warming - because the evidence of their..errr...shrinkage..suggests cold temperatures.

[seabeyond]

38. Ha ha ha ha. You are funny. Nt

[BootinUp]

24. Your theory about Primary turnout is related to GE turnout is flawed.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

[baldguy]

25. People who hate Clinton and the Democrats will see this as "the glass is half-empty" for Democrats.

[obamanut2012]

26. FL and VA will be blue for sure

NC may be.

[yardwork]

80. We need NC! Senate race there could give the Senate to Dems.

Hillary is expected to have long coat tails in NC.

And I want to vote out our idiot governor.

[bigwillq]

27. My state is solid Dem (nt)

[lapfog_1]

43. The scary thing to me

is that with an blowhard inept racist like Trump as the Candidate for the repukes...

WHY ISN'T THIS MAP SOLID BLUE?

Seriously... Not sure I want to live in a country that would award that asshole even 1 state.

[DCBob]

45. RW media has nearly half the country brainwashed.

[DCBob]

44. Looks good to me... one correction.

Virginia should be light blue. That puts Hillary over the top.

[LenaBaby61]

52. Look at that beautiful .......

Electoral College Map

[dawg]

58. Pink is a pretty color.

It sure beats deep red - at least as far as electoral maps go.

[carburyme]

62. It's lookin pretty good

Madam president

[stevenleser]

64. This is before the biggest impact of Trump attacking the Judge for being Mexican

That is going to be a big deal

[yardwork]

82. It could make Texas closer than ever.

Probably not enough to flip, but close.

[R B Garr]

81. K&R!

[quickesst]

85. Hillary has got this...

... but as evidenced by some replies down thread I will be glad when the pro-trump posts stop.