Up next IL (Romney up only up 4 points) then Missouri and Lousiana, not good for Romney

[grantcart]

With the two wins in AL and MI Santorum should have enough momentum to give Romney a run in IL.

If Romney cannot win in IL he will have a crippled campaign and may arrive at the convention with a plurality but not a majority of the delegates.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/12/il-2012-primary-35-romney_n_1339328.html

2012 President: Republican Primary
35% Romney
31% Santorum
12% Gingrich
7% Paul

[Tx4obama]

1. Next up is Hawaii, polls closing 12am ET. and also American Samoa is tonight too n/t

[grantcart]

2. yeah but both are foregone Romney areas

American Somoa is the most heavily Mormon area outside of Utah with 30% of the Island Mormon, Romney has been working Hawaii as well.

The next serious contested race is IL, which as a northern state should have been a relatively easy win for Romney but looks like it could be close.

[Arkana]

3. Romney wins Chicago and much of the north, Santorum takes the rural South.

Gingrich plays spoiler because his massive fucking ego won't let him do any different.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

4. Romney is growing a beard and will wear a stovepipe hat in Illinois

He'll wear a straw hat and go barefoot in Missouri for his Huck Finn look. In Louisiana he plans to eat a possum in a pirogue on the bayou.

[grantcart]

5. Or, in order to bridge the gender gap Romney is going to start wearing women's clothes.

Well he's been trying some time with Mom's Jeans.

His favorite that he shares with Ann? He loves dressing up in pink slip.

[Aerows]

10. If I put my ass on the ballot

My ass will win more votes than Romney because he's a phony and a Mormon. My ass is more authentic than him.

[Mr.Turnip]

6. Romney is dumping 3 million into IL

so I think he's clearly worried.

However Romney's money didn't really do all that much for him in MS and AL did it? I think he out spent Santorum 5 to 1 in those.

Really I think it depends on just how big a bump Santorum gets from AL and MS.

[Aerows]

11. Romney can't win in Texas

And that is terrifying to his campaign.

He will try to win everywhere else, but Texas is a state that he will have to come to grips with the fact that most Republicans don't like him. It has already been shown in other Deep South, Republican states that he is tepidly accepted when he isn't outright rejected. He HAS to win Texas (which he won't) or he's doomed.

[LisaL]

20. I don't believe TX is winner takes all state.

So it's not that a big of a deal. Even if Santorum wins, he won't get all the votes.

[Aerows]

7. Romney can kiss LA goodbye

He's going to experience a close out like he did in MS and AL.

Baptists and evangelical Christians, which are a key point of the base in that state, think he's a cult member (or worse, cult leader).

Texas is going to be nearly as hard for him. I expect him to lose both states, and Texas is going to be massive blow due to the number of delegates they have.

'Mormons are as flaky as Scientologists in that they believe in some being from another planet and base their religion upon it."

It's the truth, and you can't say it on television, etc., (not going there with any other religion), but Southerners know this.

That's going to hurt him badly. He likely wouldn't have won Florida if people had realized that his "religion" preached the same things as Scientology.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. John Breaux was on Chris Matthews' show last night and flat out stated that Southern

folks have a hard with Mormons. I couldn't believe that he came out and said this openly, but I liked him because he was very honest, unlike Trent Lott.

[Aerows]

9. I know it seems like a worse injustice that they have an

easier time with a racist, but understand that cultists are racists, too. Romney gets pointed out that he's about as authentic as Scientology.

[DCBob]

12. I think GOPers are coming to realization that they are headed for a brokered convention.

I also think the GOP establishment is now satisfied with Romney.. ie no more "white night" talk. I think they will find some way to push him through at the convention by hook or by crook because they absolutely do not want Santorum or Gingrich to be the nominee.

[mgcgulfcoast]

13. santorum seems to over preform on election day

i noticed when i clicked the link some arg polls for MS and AL. they both showed santorum in third place. if santorum wins in illinois romney will be in a world of hurt.

[LisaL]

14. And that is a good thing exactly how?

[mgcgulfcoast]

16. easy

the more santorum wins the more political blood is spilt in the repuke party.

[briv1016]

15. Winner take all states start April 3rd.

As long as Sheldon Adelson stays in Romney wins the nomination.

[grantcart]

17. two things

If Santorum wins in IL then Gingrich supporters who want to stop Romney are going to stop voting for Gingrich and vote Santorum while Gingrich supporters who might support Romney over Santorum will continue to vote for Gingrich.

Adelson is reported to have told close friends he is not writing any more checks to Gingrich's PAC.

[briv1016]

18. You may be right about the first point.

But Adelson has publicly said he is for Newt and Romney but against Santorum. You can expect Adelson to stay in until Santorum (Foster Friess) drops out.

[grantcart]

19. Harwood was reporting that a close assoicate was saying that he had written his 'last check' for NG.

Gingrich's zombie campaign has been surviving mostly on the seven-figure donations of casino-magnate Sheldon Adelson to a Gingrich-aligned SuperPAC.

That could be all ending now.

The New York Times' John Harwood floated it out there that Adelson had written his 'last check" for Gingrich's effort.

Greg Sargent has the report for the Washington Post:

The key question is whether the pro-Newt super PAC will be able to continue operating. The super PAC’s operations have been largely funded by billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, whose money has effectively kept Gingrich’s candidacy afloat.

John Harwood of the New York Times last night quoted a friend of Adelson saying that he had written his “last check.”

I just checked in with Rick Tyler, the head of the pro-Newt super PAC . Asked if he could continue operating without Adelson’s money, Tyler conceded: “Fundraising will be challenging.”

But Tyler vowed that the PAC would continue operating as best it could as long as Gingrich stayed in the race. Asked why Gingrich should continue after two losses that seem to render the cause hopeless, Tyler said the pro-Gingrich forces were betting on a contested convention, and would take it all the way to August.

That confirms we've heard. No matter what, the Gingrich campaign soldiers on.


Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-14/politics/31163268_1_pro-gingrich-rick-tyler-support-gingrich#ixzz1pCvpe3tp


Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-14/politics/31163268_1_pro-gingrich-rick-tyler-support-gingrich#ixzz1pCvN0APU

note the ironic statement in black lol

[Major Hogwash]

21. Puerto Rico is this weekend.

That's why Santorum spent the lat 2 days there, telling them that if they want to become a state in the future, they need to speak English!!

I don't think Santorum will win in Illinois, as Romney is already hammering him with attack ads there.