LIVE BLOG — Hawaii Republican Caucuses 2012

[ellisonz]

Last edited Wed Mar 14, 2012, 02:25 AM - Edit history (2)

20 Delegates - 17 bound + 3 superdelegates out of 2,286 primary delegates are at stake.

By The Civil Beat Staff 03/13/2012

Welcome to Civil Beat's live blog about Hawaii's Republican caucuses.
Civil Beat is planning to have reporters at a number of caucus sites on Oahu as well as on Kauai, Maui and the Big Island.

Here's the latest:

Ewa Beach: A Santorum Stronghold

The votes are piling up for Rick Santorum, at least in this one reporter’s personal exit poll.

Seven of the 10 voters I have talked to chose Santorum, and most cited his family values.

“His character, his morals, what he stands for,” said Summer Ball, a 33-year-old unemployed campaign volunteer who lives here in Ewa Beach.

A self-described “Air Force brat” who has been in Hawaii off and on since 1997, is here observing the vote, making sure nobody stuffs the ballot box.

— Michael Levine

More: http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/03/13/15185-live-blog-hawaii-republican-caucuses-2012/

[RandySF]

1. Big turnout in Waikiki

Read it on Twitter. That should be Romney turf.

[ellisonz]

2. Most likely...

...Did you see that Romney has won the wealthy by a significant margin in every race. I think we're looking at Santorum/Newt in the military areas, Romney in the money areas, and a sprinkling of Paul. I kinda doubt that Hawaii give it's typical lack of enthusiasm is going to turn out big for Ron Paul (I always want to type Ron Pau - "done/over" ).

[ellisonz]

3. Ron Paul Takes Waimea

WAIMEA, HAWAII ISLAND — Ron Paul is energizing people going to the caucus here. About 100 people have come through the door since it opened at 6 p.m. and most have declared their support for the Texas congressman.

We talked to one Mitt Romney supporter, but there definitely seems to be an organized movement for Paul.

In fact, a stack of bumper stickers and support cards on the table for former Gov. Linda Lingle, the GOP’s star player, are drawing some ire. One woman was very upset that Lingle was being allowed to “campaign” at the caucus.

Caucus workers are instructing people to fill out the cards which are addressed to the campaign.

— Tiffany Edwards Hunt

That's rural north Big Island - Waimea is a Parker Ranch town.

[RandySF]

4. How is the GOP rank and file out there?

The last prominent Republicans I remember to Linda Lingle and Pat Saiki, and bot seemed pretty moderate.

[ellisonz]

7. Gone further right...

...Lingle really is just a flip-flopping Bush "moderate" - her and Palin are pals. She puts on a good show but she's in league with the righties. The Hawaii GOP is pretty disorganized - they switched chairmen last November because Joseph Kaauwai was lousy and now they have David Chang (who I know nothing about).

Some Republicans Want To Oust Hawaii GOP Chair
Jonah Kaauwai Is Being Targeted For Replacement
Keoki Kerr KITV4 News
POSTED: 10:36 pm HST September 20, 2011
UPDATED: 11:04 pm HST September 20, 2011
Read more: http://www.kitv.com/news/29251661/detail.html#ixzz1p4GOd5GN

I think they are weaker, but still have some potential with Linda Lingle running for Senate and Charles Djou running for CD1 again.

[dkf]

5. Sounds like it could be anyone but newt.

[ellisonz]

6. Update from GOP Headquarters

Three locations ran out of ballots, and earlier in the evening party officials were taking more ballots to Jefferson Elementary.

People from various camps are starting to trickle into the HQ, which has been somewhat quiet for most of the evening.

Stacks of red-and-white Hawaii GOP shirts are still waiting to be passed out.

— Nathan Eagle

Jefferson Elementary is Waikiki.

[Tx4obama]

8. Does Hawaii have an open primary there?

Seems like the majority of Hawaiians will be voting for President Obama in November.

Hard to even imagine there being very many republicans in Hawaii.
===========

Edited to add

From the 2008 Presidential election:

Obama 325,871 (71.85 %)
McCain 120,566 (26.58 %)

[ellisonz]

9. Modified closed caucus.

You can switch at the Caucus site, but you've got to be a registered Republican, no independents.

Hawaii is 40% registered Democrats, 23% registered Republicans and the remaining 37% are independents.

First results will be about half an hour.



Whew - the DU is glitching again.

[dkf]

14. You have to be a member of the Republican party to participate.

But you can sign up right there at the caucus. That is generally how they gain their members, at least that's how the Hawaii Democrats work.

When we pull ballots for the primary elections you get to choose which party you are voting for so it doesn't matter if you are a registered R or D.

[musicblind]

9. Any station doing live coverage of the Hawaii results? I stayed up for this. n/t

[ellisonz]

12. Nope.

I don't even think the local stations bother covering it live really...

Glad you stayed up - but I think it could be an hour or two before there is a clear picture. Hawaii ain't exactly the most organized political state.

[musicblind]

22. Aw that sucks. That the stations aren't covering. It's 2:30 am EST Standard here. A state is a state

they are all equal and this is a big day for Hawaii.

[musicblind]

9. Accidental Duplicate

[ellisonz]

13. Ron Paul ‘Woke Me Up’

Ron Paul ‘Woke Me Up’

KAHULUI, MAUI — Things have slowed down here. Every few minutes someone shows up, but the rush seen at the beginning is over.

Poll watchers are on hand for Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, but no one is here watching out for New Gingrich’s interests.

Sean Housman is a 35-year-old pastor who is serving as a poll watcher for Ron Paul.

“I’ve never been passionate about politics, but Ron Paul woke me up,” he says.

— Todd A. Vines

[ellisonz]

15. Some tweets

Hawaii GOP Party Chair David Chang apologizes for long lines at polling places but is excited about the interest in the GOP.
by Clayton Wakida/Staff 11:13 PM

RT @CivilBeat: [VIDEO] Hawaii’s Lone GOP State Senator Comes Out For Romney [LIVE BLOG — Hawaii Republican Caucuses 2012] t.co ...
by DannysKorner via twitter 10:55 PM

Mitt Romney: "Hawaii is a special place, if I didn't already own a private island It'd be my adopted summer home state" #realMittRomney #GOP
by pdopetakeover via twitter 10:56 PM

18 minutes to close #808caucus ... Note these are all paper ballots so don't expect instant results
by DannysKorner via twitter 10:39 PM

Read more: http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Hawaii_Republican_Presidential_Caucus#ixzz1p4LzuRUI

[RandySF]

16. They'll screw this up just like Iowa.

[ellisonz]

18. Ballots will end up in volcanos and whatnot.

[ellisonz]

17. While we wait - anyone wanna bet 10 DU beers against Mitt Romney winning Laie?

[RandySF]

20. Why am I waiting up for a Republican caucus

in a state that Obama will carry without a sweat?

[ellisonz]

23. Addiction.

[musicblind]

24. Same here. And I'm in North Carolina and it's 2:30 am

The reason... we're political junkies. That's why

[Tx4obama]

21. Regarding Hawaii

20 total delegates: 17 bound delegates / 3 super-delegates

Proportional, NOT winner take all.

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/

[RandySF]

25. Willard up by 3% according to HuffPost count.

[ellisonz]

26. @6.7% - Rmoney - 43% - Pau 27% - Frothy 15% - Noot - 15%

About 100 votes - rural areas in Maui County.

http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-gop-results-map-hawaii/?track=231883

[ellisonz]

27. @16% - Rmoney - 32% - Frothy 28% - Pau - 23% - Noot 17%

(7/45 precincts - 2 Oahu - 4 Maui - 1 Big Island)

[RandySF]

28. Was it supposed to be this close?

I thought it was a lock for Willard.

[ellisonz]

29. Too early to tell.

We'll know when Oahu comes in - important to remember that's 75% of the state. It's close on Oahu - He's down to Frothy by about 3 points.

[RandySF]

31. THIS is a big turnout?

There may be a few thousand votes by the time this is over.

[ellisonz]

33. Hey - we're not talking about the brightest group of people here...

...they are Republicans after all.

[Tx4obama]

34. Yeah, I'm surprised that there aren't very many votes so far with almost a quarter precincts in. n/t

[LisaL]

36. Isn't that normal for a caucus?

[LisaL]

35. This is not a primary so that is to be expected.

[Lolpac.org]

30. Follow Hawaii Live

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/13/mississippi-primary-2012-results_n_1343094.html

(just have to scroll down a bit for Hawaii)

[Tx4obama]

37. I'm watching the numbers on the link in comment #32 n/t

[ellisonz]

32. @22% - Rmoney 34% - Frothy - 28% - Pau - 21% - Noot 16%

Rmoney ahead in Oahu, Maui and Big Island counties, no Kauai results.

http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-gop-results-map-hawaii/?track=231883

[ellisonz]

38. @27% - Rmoney - 32% - Frothy - 26% - Pau 25% - Noot - 15%

Only 2 precincts from Oahu, (12/45) reporting.

[Tx4obama]

40. One thing is for sure, the majority of folks in all of the races tonight do not like Rmoney :) n/t

[ellisonz]

43. You might say Rmoney has an authenticity problem leading people to believe he is uncreditworthy ;-)

[RandySF]

39. Drudge must be getting the flashing lights ready.

Because he can finally celebrate a Rmoney victory tonight.

[ellisonz]

41. @33% - Rmoney - 33% - Frothy - 28% - Pau - 23% - Noot - 16%

Mitt Romney - 435 votes - 33%
Rick Santorum - 378 votes - 28%
Ron Paul - 313 votes - 23%
Newt Gingrich - 210 votes - 16%

[RandySF]

42. Santorum taking back the lead in Honolulu County

And Paul catching up to Rmoney in Hawaii County. COULD get interesting.

[ellisonz]

44. You're right. This just officially got interesting.

No sleep for nobody now - hope you got mai tais.

[RandySF]

45. Why are they holding back results in Kuai County?

Is it insurance for Willard?

[ellisonz]

46. Wouldn't read too much into it.

But yeah, Kauai probably goes Willard - lotta rich people in new developments. Oahu is his problem - fair deal of fundies.

According to the civilbeat blog, Laie had about 1000 people - so that's where Romney is really hedging. Brigham Young has a campus there.

[RandySF]

47. Rmoney now only up by 1% in Maui.

[Tx4obama]

48. Nate Silver says ...

Nate Silver ‏ @fivethirtyeight

Romney still up 4 in Hawaii. But Santorum has a slight lead so far in Honolulu County, where most of the remaining vote is.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/179829730097377280

[RandySF]

50. OMG that would be even better than MS.

[ellisonz]

49. @36% - Rmoney 32% - Frothy - 28% - Pau - 26% - Noot - 15%

35.6% precincts reporting (16/45) |
12:30 a.m. PDT

Romney
531 votes
31.6%

Santorum
466 votes

Paul
435 votes
25.9%

Gingrich
250 votes
14.9%

[Tx4obama]

51. An interesting tweet from Nate Silver

Nate Silver ‏ @fivethirtyeight

Hawaii did not start voting until Midnight eastern (6pm local), AFTER results of MS/AL were known. May explain why Mitt underperforming

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[ellisonz]

53. I don't think it will matter that much...

...my sense is that those who chalked off Hawaii did so prematurely. The fundamentalist community in Hawaii is strong and they underestimated that in their predictions. We're still waiting for most of the big districts on Oahu.

Maui and the Big Island are both extremely narrow.

[RandySF]

52. 38% in.

Rmoney - 31%
Man on Dog - 28%
Crazy Old Bat - 26%

[RandySF]

54. Update

With seven of eight precincts reporting on Maui, Mitt Romney has 243 votes and Ron Paul has 239. Paul may not have won a state nationally, but he’s close to winning a Hawaii county.

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are slugging it out in Hawaii, with Romney holding a slight edge with 33 percent of precincts reporting. Romney has 435 votes, Santorum 378, Ron Paul 313 and New Gingrich 210. The turnout in heavily Mormon Laie is still not in. About 1,000 people are believed to have voted there.

[ellisonz]

55. @42% - Mittens - 34.5% - Ol'Frothy - 30% - Crazy Old Man - 21.5% - Pigboy - 13.5%

42.2% precincts reporting (19/45) |

More from Oahu. Romney pulls ahead there by 3%.

[ellisonz]

56. Hawaii GOP Slow in Counting Caucus Votes

One hour and 55 minutes after the caucuses closed, the Hawaii Republican Party still hadn’t counted ballots from more than 50 percent of its 45 precincts.

This was the party’s first caucus, and it showed. The party ran out of ballots at a handful of precincts. And at 9:55, it had results from just 17 of 45 precincts, or 38 percent.

Civil Beat Blog

On the KITV Live Feed: http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Hawaii_Republican_Presidential_Caucus - They seem to be manually delivering caucus results to the headquarters where they are counted and then results are posted as such. This is not unprecedented for Hawaii elections but it does seems to be slightly slower than past elections (the state isn't that fast either). Hope no one has to get up early tomorrow, this could be a late night!

[ellisonz]

57. @58% - Mittens - 34 - Ol'Frothy - 30% - Crazy Old Man - 22.% - Pigboy - 14%

Mitt Romney - 1,213 votes - 34%
Rick Santorum - 1,051 votes - 30%
Ron Paul - 778 votes - 22%
Newt Gingrich - 481 votes - 14%

Romney up by 4% on Oahu, wins Maui by 9 votes, Ron Paul leading on the Big Island.

[ellisonz]

58. @62% - Mittens 33.4% - Ol'Frothy - 28.7% - Crazy Old Man - 23.8% - Pigboy - 14.2%

Ron Paul looks to have won the Big Island.

62.2% precincts reporting (28/45) |
1:21 a.m. PDT

Oahu (11/23)

[ellisonz]

59. @69% - Mittens - 35.5% - Ol'Frothy - 29.1% - Crazy Old Man - 21.6% - Pigboy - 13.7%

68.9% precincts reporting (31/45) |
1:24 a.m. PDT

(14/23) on Oahu and Romney has a 7% lead.

Mitt Romney - 1,732 votes - 36%
Rick Santorum - 1,418 votes - 29%
Ron Paul - 1,055 votes - 22%
Newt Gingrich - 669 votes - 14%

[Tx4obama]

61. Romney won. n/t

[ellisonz]

64. Mormons did it.

CD2 which is everything outside of Honolulu town, Pearl Harbor and Mililani outvoted CD-1 pretty massively. It's looking like he got 1000 net votes out of Laie (folks don't vacation at the Polynesian Cultural Center). Guess they had no qualms voting for a moderate!

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/HI_Page_0313_VD.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[ellisonz]

60. @78% - Mittens - 45.7% - Ol'Frothy 25.1% - Crazy Old Man - 18% - Pigboy - 11.2%

77.8% precincts reporting (35/45) |
1:30 a.m. PDT

I think Laie just came in and that might be all she wrote. Romney now has a 1300 vote lead. Damn those Mormons got out and went to vote. Could be Waikiki too.

[ellisonz]

62. They called it for Romney. Laie may have single-handedly saved him from disaster.

I expect it to probably narrow a little bit - but he got what he needed from the flock.

[Tx4obama]

63. I'm heading to bed. See ya for the next one next time :)

[ellisonz]

65. Aloha mai :-)

Low turnout in Santorum areas did him in

[ellisonz]

66. RON PAUL WHAT HAPPENED!!!

84.4% precincts reporting (38/45)
1:48 a.m. PDT

Romney
3,235 votes
45.0%

Santorum
1,822 votes
25.3%

Paul
1,335 votes
18.6%

Gingrich
798 votes
11.1%

[ellisonz]

67. @100% - Romney 45% - Santorum - 25% - Paul - 18% - Newt - 11%

Romney
4,250 votes
45.4
9 - Delegates

Santorum
2,369 votes
25.3%
4 - Delegates

Paul
1,712 votes
18.3%
1 - Delegate

Gingrich
1,034 votes
11.0%
0

[mahina]

68. Super thread, mahalo Ellisonz.

Just got to this...nice going!

The Civil Beat article is a crackup too...

[KamaAina]

69. Photos here

(HI's legislature is 43-8 D in the House and an unbelievable 24-1 D in the Senate! I wonder how Sen. Slom fared in the leadership election. And how he manages to cover all the committees. )