Benchmark Politics Electoral Map update

[BootinUp]

Benchmark Politics
‏@benchmarkpol

270towin gave us admin access to a map. Tweeting without the tag this time. You can follow a 60day polling avg here:

Benchmark Politics Electoral Map at 270towin.com

[url=https://flic.kr/p/HsqtWx][img][/img]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/745315000634355716


Clinton
349
Trump
189

[BlueCaliDem]

1. If she chooses Julian Castro as her running mate, we might be able to put Texas in our

column, too. He's a bona fide Mexican-American, just like the majority. And if you worry that his Spanish isn't up to par and might be a reason to disqualify him over, say, Tim Kaine, note that he's been taking Spanish lessons since 2010. If Mormon missionaries can learn a foreign language in three months, then Julian learning his family's native tongue shouldn't be a problem.

From Pew Research Center from their 2012 study mentioned in their 2014 report:

Texas may be next. According to Pew Research Center tabulations from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, in 2012 there were 10 million Latinos and 11.6 million non-Hispanic whites living in Texas, making up 38.2% and 44.4%, respectively, of the state’s 26.1 million residents. By contrast, in 2000, Latinos made up 31.9% and white non-Hispanics made up 52.4% of the state’s 20.8 million residents. These numbers indicate the Hispanic population is growing more quickly than the non-Hispanic white population—since 2000 Hispanics have made up 63.5% of the Lone Star state’s population growth.

I'm certain that number has grown since.

[KingFlorez]

2. That's possible

Hispanic turnout will increase without a doubt. Plus, when you factor in that there are lots of college educated whites in suburban Dallas/Ft. Worth and Houston who might be very disgusted with Trump, you could also get a swing among those voters. If Trump carries Texas, it will be by a narrower margin than McCain or Romney won it by.

[BlueCaliDem]

3. Julian is also extremely difficult for the GOP to attack. They *need* at least 42% of the Hispanic

vote and they have to tread carefully when trying to vilify Julian.

We've already seen that Trump's given the GOP a migraine of epic proportions by exposing nationally the GOP secret anti-Hispanic policies, rhetoric, and mindset. They panicked and continue to panic. The Hispanic vote is vitally important to them in order to win national elections and plenty of important State elections like Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas as well. The anger we saw against Trump in SoCal when he was here shows just how much damage he's causing the Republican Party among Hispanics.

[TwilightZone]

5. Yeah, the problem is turnout.

It's significantly lower among Latinos here than the national average. If we could increase it anywhere near the average, the chances would be much better.

It has increased some and Trump will help it further increase. My personal belief is that it won't shift enough to move to the blue side of purple in 2016 but that we're setting the stage for some gains in 2018 and a possible shift in 2020. 2020 would be key, considering it's the next redistricting year.

Article re: TX Latino turnout: https://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/26/hispanic-voters/

[DCBob]

4. Kansas??

I find that hard to believe.

[TwilightZone]

6. Brownback has pretty much burned it to the ground

Kansas would still be a bit of a shock, but it's not as unlikely as it might have seemed even a couple of years ago.