Brexit: myth versus fact

[Exilednight]

1. Myth: GB is no longer a member of the EU.

Fact: GB and the EU now have 2 years to negotiate an exit. What GB will want is pretty clear, free trade without EU border movement. Many insiders believe that the EU will not grant one without the other.

2. Myth: it's only one country that has chosen to leave.

Fact: France, Germany and about three other countries will more than likely put this to referendum.

3. Myth: It will only hurt GB economically.

Fact: It will certainly hurt GB, but less than a few hours of the vote being finalized European markets have opened down The US markets are expected to open drastically down. The British Pound went down, and many moved currency reserves to the US driving up the dollar and this will make US exports more expensive.The US is already on shaky economic ground with a weak jobs report last month, and a downward correct correction of the previous month's job report.

4. Myth: GB can negotiate a free trade agreement and rescue their economy before exiting.

Fact: It takes several years to negotiate a trade deal, and with the US on an anti-freetrade diet, this is far easier said than done. The EU is going to make leaving as painful as possible for GB as a way to deter other countries from leaving - one way of doing so is by preventing other EU countries from negotiating free trade deals with EU members.

None of this looks good for the world economy, and with an election looming it could have a direct impact on US elections. In the rosiest scenarios makes for a long and drawn out process that will take years to resolve.

[DetlefK]

1. re

2. Not a fucking chance in hell that Germany will leave: The right-wingers who would like to leave poll at ~15%.
Not a fucking chance in hell that France will leave and clear the way for Germany to rule the rest of Europe under the aegis of the EU.

3. This is just stocks. Stocks are not driven by facts. Stocks are driven by greed and fear.
The rest of the world will rebound once investors realize that the UK still needs to buy things from other countries.



This is just the first day after the elections. The EU told the UK to hand in the initial documents for negotiating the exit by Tuesday.
The british voters will realize what's at stake within the next weeks, when it becomes clear how much has to be renegotiated with the EU and how strongly it will effect the british economy.

The UK will still be part of the EU economically and will have to abide by EU-rules for trade if it wants to trade with the EU. But it will no longer have a vote on what rules and regulations the EU passes.

John Oliver said it best: The EU was a convenient scapegoat for the UK's ailings. Now that the EU is gone, who is left to blame?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. A + for your analysis. The dissolution of the EU is a right wing wet dream.

We are all connected to one another, whether we like it or not.

[Exilednight]

5. A few flaws in you analysis.

In order for GB to stay in the EU another vote would have to be held. That's not going to happen.

The EU is not going to give GB favorable terms to Brexit supporters, especially on free movement within the EU.

France is the next likely country to hold a referendum with gaining support for a ballot initiative. Most political analyst believe it will be before the end of the year.

Germany is at -15% now, but where will it be one month from now, or three or six or even a year. It really depends on how hard the EU puts the squeeze on GB. In May of this year it was only 38% of GB that wanted to leave.

Markets are markets, the future forecastings AND reactionary. The markets tanking aren't a big surprise to anyone, but they are a warning of possible future events.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. The one thing that really differentiates the UK

(and just a few others like Switzerland) is that they never adopted the Euro. I remember the debate and result from the early '90s.

[HereSince1628]

4. The immediate or even short term moves on the Pound should be seen as such.

I have very little doubt that the big fiancial players have already hedged on both sides.

If you must buy things with pounds today's not a great day to take on a lot of such debt,

but IF you already have a pile of debt in Pounds, today is a good day to be cost averaging the value of the pounds in which you'll pay that back.

[Lord Magus]

6. "France, Germany and about three other countries will more than likely put this to referendum."?

Why do you think that's the case? Just because Marine Le Pen demanded a referendum doesn't mean she'll get it. France doesn't just give the fascist whatever she asks for.

[Exilednight]

7. There is serious discussion within France about adding it as a ballot initiative during the next

Election. The far right of France is slowly and steadily gaining power in the wake of their own terrorist attacks.

I highly doubt it would pass, but this could turn into a cycle of elections.