The GOP "southern problem"

[zipplewrath]

By the late 1950s, the democrats were having a serious problem with the "solid south". Jim Crow and the resistence to civil rights was becoming a larger and larger conflict within the party. Efforts were being made to forcibly integrate the party in the south. The end result was that by 1960, the democrats were seriously split and Strom Thurmond ran a third party candidate as a "dixiecrat" which lead to a very narrow victory for JFK. Kennedy was in Dallas that day predominately because he was worried that, once again, he'd have trouble in the south and he was going to need to shore up Texas in order to win the next election.

LBJ ultimately passes the civil rights act, and the GOP begins courting the southern vote. Strom Thrumond and Jesse Helms both ended up in the GOP because of this shift that began in the mid 1960s. There is a steady drip of southern democrats out of the party and into the GOP over the next 20 years. By the 80s, the ticket splitting in the south is getting loud. Reagan does very well and the southern congressional democrats are sticking with the party predominately because the democrats are still the ruling party in congress and they want the committee assignments and chairmenships that come with that. The democrats only win the presidential races when they run ostensibly "southern" govenors.

By 1994, the entire enterprise collapses. When a southern republican congressmen ascends to the speakership and the GOP takes control of congress, massive party shifting occurs by the southern congressmen. It is the end of the "solid south" for the democratic party. Southern states see their legislatures and govenors taken over by the GOP. Florida, one of the 4 largest states, goes completely republican. Texas, also in the top 4, also becomes a virtual republican lock.

But now the reality is starting to set in. For very similar reasons that the democrats had to expell much of the "solid south", the GOP now sees its fortunes rising AND FALLING by the southern vote. The most extreme elements of their party are taking control OF the party and enforcing a world view on their candidates, setting up again a situation in which the national party is forced to take on points of view that don't run well in national elections, but do run well in the south.

Much like the democrats, it could be a long term problem for the GOP. The southern/conservative view isn't actually limited to "the South" anymore. The evangelical/social conservative/"fact absent" coalition that is runnning the party is strongly rural and under educated. This is not the basis upon which to build a party.

[randr]

1. Excellent analysis

That the Democrats realized the "southern ideology" was a bad fit for the evolution of our democracy first is what will ensure them the commanding position as we move into the 21st Century with an eye to the future.

[Proud Public Servant]

2. Increasingly, what we're really looking at

is a country divided between the Urban Party and the Rural Party. The good news is that long-term demographic trends favor urbanization; the bad news is that the fricking electoral college allows for overrepresentation of rural states.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

4. Part of their problem is the extra GOP delegates many southern states have been awarded.

In essence what they have done is give their extreme fringe too much power to choose their candidate. The concept of rewarding party loyalty with extra delegates may go way back, but it's currently widening the gap between the division in the party.

A large block of the Republican party are not pleased with how the extreme "hate" branch of the party has garnered the power they hold in the selection of their future candidate. However, with the rise of the Tea Party and Palin's extreme, and public, "God, guns and racism" stance, there are candidates out there willing to bet on the extremist at the expense of the party. The reality is they could possibly end up with a candidate selected by a minority of their followers. Not that I expect that to happen, but it does have a lot of people in the GOP paying more attention to the system.

[zipplewrath]

5. Demonstration of the false equivalency

I think what is going on is a classic example of the false equivalency we see all the time. Each party has its nuts. The also have their extremists. But in the current distribution of voters, the GOP is hostage to theirs. Why? Why is the GOP hostage and the Dems are not?

The dems purged their "nuts". They purged the racists (to a great degree) and were willing to oppose them, openly, and restructure the party. They confronted their own president (LBJ) when he wandered so far off into disaster. Now, in the GOP, there isn't a candidate out there who is both a "leader" and willing to confront the nuts. Quite the opposite, the leaders have sold themselve to the baggers/birthers/birchers.

The democrats on the other hand will confront their nut balls, and it can work, because at the end of the day, in the democratic party, if your facts are wrong, you lose influence. Not necessarily "immediately". You can have people "getting away with" loose facts for a while. But ultimately, they'll be confronted and the voters will "respond".

In the GOP, they've made a party structure out of the "fact free zone" and at this point are being held hostage to it. The smarter you are, the more educated you are, the more suspect and unacceptable you are in the republican party. They're hostage to Rush, they're hostage to Fox, and they are hostage to the "belief" crowd that will believe anything, facts be damned.

[Solomon]

6. Good thread

[Cosmocat]

7. These things cycle

This just is LOOKING like a bad cycle for them. A likeable incumbent president with a marginally improving economy.

Save a terrorist attack, it should play out with BO getting reelected and picking up some seats in the house.

But, there WILL be a reset on everything once it is over.

The GOP will run the same playbook the ran with Clinton.

They will get out MUCH sharper knives and go after Obama, and you will hear A LOT louder calls for impeachment. The media is out of the box RIGHT NOW, but will come in line with whatever BS they trump up to go after Obama on. They will cycle through social issues or the economy or the deficit, and with a media willing to trumpet their BS and a sadly pliable public, they will bounce back.

The media has been let out of its GOP box FOR NOW, because the establishment can't support Romney overtly before the far right gets to have its candidates beaten. Once Romney clears Santorum/Nwet, the media will be cow towed to its box (marginalize Ds in every way and mitigate whatever negatives Rs have). They just are free to call the Rs for the loons they are right now, and that won't continue.

It is very instructive to look back two years. There was NO reason for the country to give these arsehats any power, but for no reason other than the attack on democracy that was legislation geared toward making healthy care more available, the biggest group of clowns to his DC since 94 got elected because the republican party threw a snit.

They are mean, and they utilize fear and anger to win elections. People are people, and especially in mass, they will ALWAYS be vulnerable to the feelings that the Rs channel to get elected.

All that can be done now is to max out gains that might be made this year. Cause they Rs are going nowhere.

[Aerows]

8. Well, being from the South

I think I can comment on the "Southern problem" in 2012. I have family members that are staunch Republicans. They sat at home and didn't even vote in the Primary. They aren't donating. Why?

Republicans back the candidate that can win. Even if that candidate sucks, they back that person - unless they find something about that candidate that it is repellent.

Enter Mitt Romney. He might win in places other than the South, but he's a cult member to Southern voters. Texas and Louisiana are lost to him, and he hasn't even started in on them. If Newt Gingrich wasn't in the picture, Santorum would be running neck and neck with Romney just because he isn't Romney and isn't a cult member, and Romney is a phony to boot.

The Republican party has a Southern problem, and it is only because Gingrich is staying in the race, or because Santorum is staying in the race. If either dropped, Romney wouldn't have a prayer, and frankly, he doesn't, even if he ends up the nominee.

Religion and authenticity matter in the South, and Romney has neither. People respect their enemies more than they do people that try to slime their way into being friends, and that is all Romney will ever be to the South - slimy wannabe friend. Louisiana and Texas together have 200 delegate votes that are Romney's to lose, which he will.

I'm loving it, personally. As a southerner, I see the dejection, depression and outright lack of enthusiasm for Republicans. They made their bed, and now they are lying in it with the chosen candidate, Romney, that nobody wants to go on a date with.

[strandedsoutherner12]

9. The southern GOP is a problem for this country and the Democratic party shares some of the blame...

1. Democrats don't even campaign in the South anymore. Bobby Jindal was just reelected I believe and I don't remember there even being an election.
2. Sure, FoxNews is out to make $$$ and they are doing it very well from Southern audiences, but why hasn't the Democratic party tried to organize some efforts on making Fox News less effective? Should you be able to name your network a "news" network if the vast majority of your programming is 'opinion'? Shouldn't this be illegal as it is a form of deception and it's being portrayed by a news network? Aren't there numerous studies that show Fox News is not 'fair and balanced' yet they 'advertise' themselves as the fair and balanced network? The same thing can be said of MSNBC - but these two networks should both be forced to change their names to something non-representative of a "news" station as anything that can be considered as non objective reporting is entertainment, and not news.
3. Related to news corps - ever since I moved out of the city and into a rural area i can only get Fox News and that Money network that is always criticizing obama are the only two networks that are available in HD. If FoxNews is the only HD News station, then which news station do you think will be on every public (store, business, lobby, etc) TV? FoxNews!
4. State schools, such as LSU, are very favorable towards conservative organizations and consistently rule liberal speech as inappropriate. One prime example is the Occupy and Tea Party Movements. They hosted a booth in "free speech alley" for the Tea Party but instructed their staff to monitor the premises and immediately remove any "Occupy" signs "illegally" posted on walls at the Student Union.

As long as Dems keep 'giving up' on the South, there will be these no compromise lame duck GOP dominated congress / senates (depending on the cycle) that are preventing our society from progressing.

Also, I recommend people take a close look at what Southern states do during election days. There should be a federal mandate making election days national hollidays so that the working class doesn't have to deal with employers discouraging them from voting.

To summarize my point - the GOP isn't just a "Southern" problem - it's the countries problem because it effects us all and the democratic organizations should take responsibility for not spending enough time or money on changing the situation or you could even say "educating" the South. By the way, there are plenty of very intelligent very wealthy people in the South that would probably be democrats right now if they weren't socialized to be conservative with absolutely NO influence from Democrats.

The first thing Democrats should push for is mandatory 'liberal arts' education in all 4 year college programs. Modern day kids aren't forced to critically think about what they've been raised to believe at all when they go to universities for engineering, business, or any 'professional' trade.

[Ian David]

10. You're forgetting Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy. n/t