Interesting graph re: GOP delegates won

[krispos42]

More:
http://wiki.abulsme.com/2012_Republican_Delegate_Count_Graphs
http://www.abulsme.com/

[LisaL]

1. Romney needs to win ~47 % of remaining delegates.

And he hasn't been doing that so far (he is not getting 47 % of delegates). All of this points to brokered convention.

[DCBob]

10. I think the GOPer establishment has resigned itself to a brokered convention.

but I also think they are now satisfied with Romney and will push him through at the convention somehow. These latest polls showing Romney up or within striking distance of Obama are good enough for them considering the situation. They clearly do not want Santorum or Gingrich to be the nominee.

[WI_DEM]

13. Pew Poll (one of the best I think there are) was out yesterday showing Obama up 12 on Romney

[Kablooie]

23. Might be a broken convention instead, though.

[abulsme]

25. Well, yes, he had been actually...

Just found this thread now. I'm the guy who made the graph you linked to.

As of March 14th when you made this post according to my calculations Romney needed 49.2% of the remaining delegates to win (which is close to the 47% if you are just eyeballing the chart), but he actually HAD been getting more than that. On that day Romney had 51.2% of the delegates so far. So he was ahead of the pace he needed, not behind.

That is of course even more true now. He needs 47.3% of the remaining delegates, and has 53.2% of the delegates so far.

So if he just continued to get delegates at the same pace, he would get to the needed 1144.

Of course, his delegate collection pace will probably actually accelerate. The odds of the brokered convention scenario were always low, but I'm guessing that after this coming Tuesday (Maryland, DC and Wisconsin) they will essentially slip to zero.

[TlalocW]

2. Another interesting one

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

Shows how many they've all got, and the number they have to reach and what's left. They have to reach 1144 delegates to secure the nomination. There are 1384 left. Romney is under 500; Santorum just under 250. If Santorum keeps up what he's been doing, it will be brokered.

TlalocW

[LisaL]

3. Yes, neither one of them appears to be likely to get enough votes at this point.

What then? Jeb Bush?

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I don't think so...

Romney will be the nominee I think. He'll go to the convention with the most delegates, but it's not going to be easy. There will be a few rounds of votes and some deal making to get him the delegates needed to secure the nomination. That means he'll have to make a deal. I guess he could make a deal with Ron Paul to select his son, Rand, for the ticket - or go with Santorum or Gingrich. Either way, he'll have to cut a deal and pick someone as his VP who can give him the delegates needed to put him over the top.

[krispos42]

12. I wonder if RON PAUL might be able to get himself a VP or Secretary of _____ spot...

...with his delegates by combining them with Romney to put Mittens over the edge.

[ellisonz]

20. I don't see any deal with Paul being possible...

...he's spoiled goods with his nuttery and baggage.

I predict a Santorum/Newt deal.

[onenote]

14. Based on the NY Times chart, Romney has a decent shot at hitting 1144 before the convention

According to that chart, he has 495 delegates out of approximately 926 that have been awarded, or 53.5 percent. He needs another 649 out of the remaining 1358 delegates, or around 48 percent.

If he just keeps doing as poorly as he's been doing up until now, he'll still get to that number before the convention.

[morningfog]

15. Yeah, and if you play with the numbers, he has several paths to 1144.

Santorum has none. There are a few big winner take all contests coming up that Romney should win. Not sure how long it will go, but Mitt should be able to hit the number before the convention.

Great site to play with the numbers here: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/calculator/

[LisaL]

16. Santorum really freaks me out.

I wish he just went back into whatever cave he crawled out from.

[Kablooie]

24. If he did it would freak you out more.

It is quite disturbing to picture Santorum crawling back into his mother's womb.

[LisaL]

17. But he has not been getting 48 % of the delegates in several recent primaries.

With the three of them splitting the delegates, he has been getting ~30 % or less.

[onenote]

18. Since March 1 he's gotten close to 53%.

That number is somewhat inflated by Virginia, where neither Gingrich nor Santorum were on the ballot; but even if you ignore Virginia, he has gotten close to 49 percent of the delegates awarded in the past two weeks.

Sure, if you look only the most recent primaries/caucuses, the numbers look bad for romney. But that's because of Alabama and Mississippi -- there aren't a lot more states like that left to be contested. If you look at the results since March 10 and you include Alabama and Mississippi, Romney still manages to have picked up 45 percent.

[Raine1967]

4. Interesting chart color choices...

especially for Santorum.....

[krispos42]

11. Yeah, I noticed that too

[2ndAmForComputers]

21. No way in hell that wasn't deliberate.

[abulsme]

26. Not Deliberate, But I didn't change the colors either

(I'm the guy who made the chart)

Candidates who were active as of January 1st, in alphabetical order, default colors from Excel (Excel:Mac 2008 to be specific).

Well... with one change. Huntsman was a yellow line that was very hard to see on the white background, so I changed his color.

But the rest, including Santorum Brown, were the defaults right out of the box as it were.

Now, I did chuckle that Santorum came out brown, and knew the association, and chose NOT to change it.

But I didn't actually pick it explicitly.

[brooklynite]

5. Skewed data

by starting at 50%, the chart makes Santorum's 67% target look fare bigger than Mitten's 48%.

[LisaL]

6. There is nothing skewed about the data.

As long as people are capable of interpreting it.

[2ndAmForComputers]

22. No, wait, let me guess. You read "How to Lie with Statistics", didn't you?

[abulsme]

27. Full Scale

I've on occation posted a version of the chart showing the full 0% to 100% range for that (and a horizontal scale based on % of the delegates allocated rather than date. The most recent one of those I posted was on March 20th (so before the last couple of contests):

http://www.abulsme.com/2012/03/20/yet-more-2008-vs-2012-comparisons/

That also shows comparison of the same chart with both Republicans and Democrats in 2012, which is also interesting. (At least I think so.)

For the main graph I post updates to regularly I zoom in simply so the detail can be seen better.

[Reed]

8. Interesting....

Didn't know it was that far apart between Romney and Santorum.

[ellisonz]

19. Welcome to DU!

[Pryderi]

9. Zeno's Paradox. n/t