Warning: The Handwringers Will Be Out In Force Soon
It happens like clockwork in every election cycle. Early July, there is a lull in the political campaigns. The excitement of the primaries is long gone, the VP selections and conventions are weeks off, people are going on their summer vacations and planning their 4th of July BBQs, and the political rallies/major speeches are nonexistent. The political season goes dormant for a week or two, and invariably the polls tighten a bit as most people stop paying attention for a short period of time.
It happened in 2008. Obama was up by 6.9 points in the averages around June 25th, 2008. By July 12th, he was down by a 3.5 point lead.
It also happened in 2012. At the end of June, Obama had roughly a 3 point lead over Romney. By July 15th, he was down to a roughly 1 point lead in the averages.
And, it will probably happen again this year. In fact, Clinton's average has gone down roughly 1 point, maybe slightly more in the last week or so. And just like 2008 and 2012, expect the worry warts and the handwringers to come out in force to tell us why we are all doomed, that we picked the wrong candidate, that the end is nigh but I implore you, don't let their needless anxiety negitively affect you and don't let it ruin your time with your friends and loved ones.
Everything little thing is going to be alright. 
= new reply since forum marked as read
that's what they say about EVERYTHING.
The one group of thinkers that has been completely wrong this election cycle are the "sure bet" folks. Literally nothing has happened the way they thought. Even Nate Silver got blown out repeatedly in the primaries.
The thing about elections is that anyone can win one. Nothing is ever in the bag.
And the fact that candidates once separated by miles draw closer together before a big vote is not an illusion. Sometimes the underdog catches up. Sometimes the pundits are wrong.
It's not "handwringing." It is a reflection of the reality that elections are uncertain, shifting things. Ask Britain.
The anxiety I see right in front of me is that Trump has defied all that is known about politics and that it is impossible to predict the outcome. Even if he is 10 points behind on Nov 7th, he could very well win in a landslide and in fact, a Trump win may be inevitable because reality is no longer what we thought it was.
But the new reality doesn't fit into actual reality. A few pundits said that Trump could never win the nomination, sure, but that isn't what the math said.
Some self proclaimed experts merely said that the polls had to be wrong during the entire lead up to the republican primaries because someone like Trump couldn't possibly beat the establishment republicans. But the polls always showed Trump with a large lead over his nearest rivals. In fact, Trump actually underperformed his polls a bit during the primaries, which means that the experts predicting that the polls were wrong weren't 100% off base. They did overestimate how wrong the polls were but at no point was Trump ever the underdog and yet he came back to prove us all wrong. He was always ahead in the GOP polls and he ended up winning, all be it barely. In fact, despite having a commanding lead throughout the primaries in the polls and in media coverage, he still won the nomination by the smallest margin of any Republican presidential candidate since they started holding primaries.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/
So in reality, Trump is either exactly where his polling says he is or he is a bit weaker than what his poll numbers say. And a couple of pundits saying that their "gut feeling" is that Trump wouldn't be the nominee doesn't prove anything. Nate Silver's gut feeling 6 months ago was the Trump would ultimately lose the in the primaries but his objective, mathematically based model was dead on. The numbers have never shown that Trump is defying expectation. He did defy expectations of some of the media's political "experts" and the hope of the Republican establishment but if you take away the emotions and what people "feel" will happen, there is nothing shocking about Trump eeking out a victory in the primaries. And there is no evidence that Trump is somehow a juggernaut or that his campaign exists in a separate universe where actions have no consequences and math doesn't matter.
Just like the pundits that said Trump couldn't win the nomination, you need to remove emotion and your gut feeling from the equation and you will see he is, in reality, in a terrible place. And if you obsess over the punditry being incorrect and assume that all rules can now be thrown out the window then you may not have been paying attention for very long.
Here is an article from 2001 discussing how wrong the gut feelings of political pundits are. Just as they were this year, and in 2012, and 2008, and as far back as someone with a fancy suit, perfect teeth, and a fancy title have been trying to look into their crystal ball to predict the outcome of elections.
https://www.thenation.com/article/pundits-who-predict-future-are-always-wrong/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/why-romney-will-win/article/660391
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/11/4/798696/-
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2012/11/04/romney-landslide-here-are-the-biggest-names-predicting-it-how-it-will-happen/
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/5/1127588/-Four-Years-Ago-An-Utterly-Wrong-Right-Wing-Prediction-of-McCain-s-Election-Night-Landslide
So, wring your hands, stress, worry, distrust the polls, go with your gut feeling on what will happen but history has shown, even this year, that will lead you down the wrong path every time.
It seems ol' Doc Jack was right. I warned about this nearly 2 weeks ago and still people don't listen. Truly sad 
Who I feel I may have to put on ignore literally, and that's not easy to do when you're really "friends." They were hard to live with after Hillary lost to then Sen. Obama. They voted for him of course in the GE, and were happy he won and have been mostly fine with what he's done in office the past 8 years. However, this is their original candidate who has all of her cards on the table in pursuit of the presidency, and they're shaky and in some cases shakier than Don Knotts from the Movie "Shakiest Gun in the West" Most of them understand polling etc., but are still nervous and scared over BS polls like Rasmussen, Gravis and the Q-poll.
Lordt, what am I gonna DO with some of my friends for the next few months 
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Back at ya!