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Wow- Clinton 46% Trump 33% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 OP
This calls for a... Cali_Democrat Jul 2016 #1
You can see where the con man is losing support and the "other" is gaining support. kimbutgar Jul 2016 #2
Yeap, just changed my response... I was wonder where the floor was going... this crazy uponit7771 Jul 2016 #9
Not as wide of a margin as I would like. AtheistCrusader Jul 2016 #3
This is much more to my liking than the OPs parsing Comey's comments. Good news. floriduck Jul 2016 #4
Seems a lil optimistic but good news is always welcome DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 #5
Those numbers look much better than 4-6 last week. floriduck Jul 2016 #6
Loving the news. oasis Jul 2016 #7
What is Reuters rating as a pollster? tia... tRump is below the 40% floor... jus... wow uponit7771 Jul 2016 #8
fivethirtyeight gives them an A- progressoid Jul 2016 #10
Shit, that is quite the rebound Doctor Jack Jul 2016 #11
Where do you see 46-33%? BlueNoMatterWho Jul 2016 #12
At the link posted in the OP. grossproffit Jul 2016 #14
It says 44-35. Then clicking overall gives you 39-30-30. BlueNoMatterWho Jul 2016 #16
polling numbers are weird. But these changes are within the margin of error Bucky Jul 2016 #20
Thank you for taking the time to explain! Question, is this an online poll? BlueNoMatterWho Jul 2016 #21
Why don't you give us a link then? Kingofalldems Jul 2016 #22
absolutely not an online poll Bucky Jul 2016 #24
Thank you Bucky! BlueNoMatterWho Jul 2016 #26
Trump will lose. Get used to it. Kingofalldems Jul 2016 #15
Yay! mcar Jul 2016 #13
May I suggest that there be no more polling for the next two weeks. We don't want to scare politicaljunkie41910 Jul 2016 #17
I totally agree. Make them stick with Trump. He's a gift to all Democrats. He may even get Squinch Jul 2016 #27
Terrible thought tho'... Why did Trump close the gap for the last two weeks? Bucky Jul 2016 #18
Double Digits! Yes! nolawarlock Jul 2016 #19
The TrumpenFührer workinclasszero Jul 2016 #23
k&r DesertRat Jul 2016 #25
DSB, you always bring the good news! You always put me in a happy place! Squinch Jul 2016 #28

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
11. Shit, that is quite the rebound
Tue Jul 5, 2016, 05:47 PM
Jul 2016

People were stressing last week because she was down to 9 in the Reuter's tracking poll. Well, we are back to near all time highs for her in that poll.

 

BlueNoMatterWho

(880 posts)
16. It says 44-35. Then clicking overall gives you 39-30-30.
Tue Jul 5, 2016, 07:18 PM
Jul 2016

Either way it's good news! Much bigger lead than the RCP average.

Bucky

(54,027 posts)
20. polling numbers are weird. But these changes are within the margin of error
Tue Jul 5, 2016, 07:32 PM
Jul 2016

The July 1st poll said "Among likely voters, 43.9 percent now support Clinton, compared with 34.5 percent for Trump. Another 21.7 percent of likely voters wouldn't support either candidate."

That 44-35-22 result was surveyed from June 27-July 1

The more recent numbers are 46-33-22 from July 1-5 polling. She edged up, he slipped back, and so the gap grew by 4 points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZH5TZ

 

BlueNoMatterWho

(880 posts)
21. Thank you for taking the time to explain! Question, is this an online poll?
Tue Jul 5, 2016, 07:50 PM
Jul 2016

I seem to recall that it was.

Bucky

(54,027 posts)
24. absolutely not an online poll
Wed Jul 6, 2016, 12:52 PM
Jul 2016

Online polls do not create a random selection among the populace and thus are of zero scientific value

I used to work as a survey supervisor and data analyst. All online polls can be ignored as mere noise. If a reputable outfit like Reuters puts their name to it, it should be taken seriously.

Now, when you look at recent polls at Real Clear ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ ) you'll see they jump around a lot. Like on June 30th one poll had Clinton up by 11 and another had Trump up by 4. Since the introduction of the cell phone, random statistical sampling has gotten real difficult. Reaching people by cell phone is unreliable, but calling people on ground lines means you over-sample older voters, which will skew results.

Most pollsters will thus put in more time trying to reach younger voters. But if you put in more effort reaching one demographic group inside your polling "universe", then you've destroyed the random-probability-selection that true statistical sampling depends upon to be accurate. It also costs more money and polling organizations are not terribly profitable.

So instead, most pollsters simply gather what samples they can and then statistically weight the results to reflect what they think the real picture is of the overall voting public. There's different demographic criteria to consider in deciding how you'll weight a batch of interviews within a given survey, so the result is a bunch of widely divergent results.

That is to say, in the past, like in the 80s and 90s when I was in the racket, polling results didn't differ so much. Most presidential polls stayed within the margin of error of each other, or never diverged more than a few points from that MoE. So clearly when there is a 15 point difference in spreads between two more or less parallel polls, you're in a new age of polling.

Random probability sampling has always been a messy science. Today it's more art than science.

politicaljunkie41910

(3,335 posts)
17. May I suggest that there be no more polling for the next two weeks. We don't want to scare
Tue Jul 5, 2016, 07:20 PM
Jul 2016

the GOP into being forced to nominate someone else before they can officially cement Trump, their presumptive nominee's nomination in stone.

We can go just two more weeks without any more updates in the GE polling. Pleeeeze.

Squinch

(50,955 posts)
27. I totally agree. Make them stick with Trump. He's a gift to all Democrats. He may even get
Wed Jul 6, 2016, 07:33 PM
Jul 2016

us the House back.

Just LOVE that guy!

Bucky

(54,027 posts)
18. Terrible thought tho'... Why did Trump close the gap for the last two weeks?
Tue Jul 5, 2016, 07:26 PM
Jul 2016

This is great news. Clinton a month ago was ahead by double digits. Then there was that terrible shooting in Orlando. Then Trump surged to within 4 points of Clinton. Then people calmed down. Now we're back to a 13 point lead.

Terrorist attacks help Trump gain points. Now Trump is sending six pointed dog whistles to the white supremecist fringe that worships him as the banger of Aryan women.

Do the math. He's incentivizing more terrorist attacks. I expect these nutjobs to gin up a false flag attack in the next few months.

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