2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)kimbutgar
(21,163 posts)uponit7771
(90,347 posts)AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)It's a good start though.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)oasis
(49,389 posts)uponit7771
(90,347 posts)progressoid
(49,991 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)People were stressing last week because she was down to 9 in the Reuter's tracking poll. Well, we are back to near all time highs for her in that poll.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Thanks!
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Either way it's good news! Much bigger lead than the RCP average.
Bucky
(54,027 posts)The July 1st poll said "Among likely voters, 43.9 percent now support Clinton, compared with 34.5 percent for Trump. Another 21.7 percent of likely voters wouldn't support either candidate."
That 44-35-22 result was surveyed from June 27-July 1
The more recent numbers are 46-33-22 from July 1-5 polling. She edged up, he slipped back, and so the gap grew by 4 points.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZH5TZ
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)I seem to recall that it was.
Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)Bucky
(54,027 posts)Online polls do not create a random selection among the populace and thus are of zero scientific value
I used to work as a survey supervisor and data analyst. All online polls can be ignored as mere noise. If a reputable outfit like Reuters puts their name to it, it should be taken seriously.
Now, when you look at recent polls at Real Clear ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ ) you'll see they jump around a lot. Like on June 30th one poll had Clinton up by 11 and another had Trump up by 4. Since the introduction of the cell phone, random statistical sampling has gotten real difficult. Reaching people by cell phone is unreliable, but calling people on ground lines means you over-sample older voters, which will skew results.
Most pollsters will thus put in more time trying to reach younger voters. But if you put in more effort reaching one demographic group inside your polling "universe", then you've destroyed the random-probability-selection that true statistical sampling depends upon to be accurate. It also costs more money and polling organizations are not terribly profitable.
So instead, most pollsters simply gather what samples they can and then statistically weight the results to reflect what they think the real picture is of the overall voting public. There's different demographic criteria to consider in deciding how you'll weight a batch of interviews within a given survey, so the result is a bunch of widely divergent results.
That is to say, in the past, like in the 80s and 90s when I was in the racket, polling results didn't differ so much. Most presidential polls stayed within the margin of error of each other, or never diverged more than a few points from that MoE. So clearly when there is a 15 point difference in spreads between two more or less parallel polls, you're in a new age of polling.
Random probability sampling has always been a messy science. Today it's more art than science.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,458 posts)mcar
(42,334 posts)Moving right along.
politicaljunkie41910
(3,335 posts)the GOP into being forced to nominate someone else before they can officially cement Trump, their presumptive nominee's nomination in stone.
We can go just two more weeks without any more updates in the GE polling. Pleeeeze.
Squinch
(50,955 posts)us the House back.
Just LOVE that guy!
Bucky
(54,027 posts)This is great news. Clinton a month ago was ahead by double digits. Then there was that terrible shooting in Orlando. Then Trump surged to within 4 points of Clinton. Then people calmed down. Now we're back to a 13 point lead.
Terrorist attacks help Trump gain points. Now Trump is sending six pointed dog whistles to the white supremecist fringe that worships him as the banger of Aryan women.
Do the math. He's incentivizing more terrorist attacks. I expect these nutjobs to gin up a false flag attack in the next few months.
nolawarlock
(1,729 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)is TOAST!!!