Every presidential election shifts nationally.
And, in whichever party’s direction, that will move states (even with ones which hold for the same party).
In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected by about +4 percentage points—with the U.S. Popular Vote—with 26 states, plus District of Columbia, and 332 electoral votes.
The Donald Trump +2 margin, by Rasmussen, says a national 2012-to-2016 shift of R+6. That would deliver a Republican pickup of the presidency to Donald Trump. His map would be 2012 Mitt Romney (24 states, 206 electoral votes) and a flipping of the following states: Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Colorado (09)—due to their margins and bellwether status—to bring Trump’s winning electoral-vote score to at least 275. Likely one or both of Iowa (06) and/or New Hampshire (04) would also flip to Trump.
Looking at most polls, indicating Hillary Clinton +9 to +14, this means further national Democratic support between an additional D+5 to D+10. If that manifests, we are in for a Democratic presidential landslide in which Hillary Clinton carries Obama’s 2012 map and wins pickups from the likes of North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), and Indiana (11)—with a cumulative electoral-vote score, at that point, of 395—as a more swift red-to-blue host of pickups. Depending on the specifics of the potential for even more pickups, the states count of Obama’s 26 could end up, for Hillary, being closer to 36. This creates the potential for Hillary Clinton to top Bill Clinton (370, in 1992; 379, in 1996) and Barack Obama (365, in 2008; 332, in 2012) with an electoral-vote score which actually reaches 400.
Come Election Night 2016, I think Democrats will end up having a good time.
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