‘The Biggest Danger for Donald Trump: Florida’

[CobaltBlue]

Last edited Fri Jul 8, 2016, 12:34 AM - Edit history (4)

The New York Times’s Nate Cohn has picked up on developing demographic and voting patterns which can be devastating to Donald Trump in the most-populous bellwether state: Florida. (The state has voted for every presidential winner, with exceptions in 1960 and 1992, since 1928.)


@ http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/upshot/the-biggest-danger-for-donald-trump-florida.html?_r=1&referer=


@ http://nytimes.com/2016/07/07/upshot/the-biggest-danger-for-donald-trump-florida.html?_r=1&referer=

The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn’t a “blue” Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left. It’s extremely hard for a Republican to win the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

Disagreeing with Nate: No Republican presidential winner is going to be able to make do without carriage of Florida. It's not just that every Republican winner since 1928 has carried Florida. It's that the GOP's map of base states, and that the Democrats' "Blue Firewall" (states which have not carried Republican since after the 1980s) add up to 242, means that the 29 electoral votes from Florida are now required for a Republican to win election to the presidency.

The polls suggest that Hillary Clinton might capitalize on huge demographic shifts to an extent that Barack Obama never did. She might even lead by the same margin in Florida that she does nationally — about five percentage points — even though the state has been more Republican than the country in every presidential election since 1976.

Correction: Jimmy Carter, when he unseated Gerald Ford in 1976, won a Democratic pickup of Florida with a margin above his national support. He won the U.S. Popular Vote by D+2.06. Florida carried for Carter by D+5.29. So, Florida has actually been a tilt for Republicans since 1980.

[House of Roberts]

1. Didn't Chuck Todd move Florida from 'tossup' to 'leans Dem'

after a poll gave Hillary a double digit lead, just a couple days ago?

[CobaltBlue]

2. House of Roberts—Yes. But there is a problem…

Chuck Todd lacks consistency.

He has Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in tossup mode.

Pennsylvania has had a Democratic tilt in every presidential election since 1952. All winning Republicans who carried the state—Dwight Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Richard Nixon (re-election, 1972), Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984), and George Bush (1988)—underperformed their statewide margin vs. their nationwide margin. And every Democratic presidential winner during this period—John Kennedy (1960), Lyndon Johnson (1964), Jimmy Carter (1976), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), and Barack Obama (2008, 2012)—carried Pennsylvania above their national margins. (And three losing Democrats—Hubert Humphrey, 1968; Al Gore, 2000; John Kerry, 2004—carried Pennsylvania.) Republicans want to win over the state. (They sense that Pennsylvania is not giving Democrats as much a tilt from the state as it had in previous decades. They're sensing a trend.) But, as Joe Scarborough put it on Election Night 2008, "As long as the epicenter of the Republican Party is in the Southeast" they're not going to win Pennsylvania. This is especially the case in presidential elections won by the Democrats.

New Hampshire is now with a Democratic tilt as well. It was only state which carried for George W. Bush in 2000 and flipped to John Kerry in 2004. (That marked the first time a Republican presidential winner did not carry New Hampshire.) This state is about +2 tilting Democratic over national results. So, a Republican would have to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +2 to +3 in order to win it over.

The media maps are designed to create some interest. But, if Hillary Clinton takes the +4 percentage points by which Barack Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote, with re-election in 2012, and is shifting in her party's direction at least +6 percentage points to get to +10 … the states which voted for John Kerry in 2004, which are reputable as "Blue Firewall" states, are going to deliver margins above that D+10.

So, Chuck Todd's (and company's) map is misleading.

North Carolina, won in a Republican pickup for a 2012 Mitt Romney (after a 2008 Democratic pickup for Barack Obama), is trending away from the Rs. Since 2000, its Republican tilt has gone from +13 (in 2000) to +10 (in 2004) to +7 (in 2008) to +6 (in 2012). So, if Hillary Clinton is in a position to flip it, as it is indicated as a tossup, then New Hampshire and Pennsylvania—both of which are several percentage points more Democratic than North Carolina—are not tossups.


@ http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-clinton-maintains-edge-new-nbc-battleground-map-n602306

[House of Roberts]

3. New Hampshire had a sizable Nader vote in 2000,

enough to have put Gore on top, and would have flipped enough EC votes to have made Florida redundant. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

So I'm not surprised we can expect to carry NH. I keep telling guys at work Trump can't get there, but they won't listen.

[CobaltBlue]

4. Election 2000 was a national Republican shift of +8

When Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996, he defeated Bob Dole nationally by D+8.52.

George W. Bush had a national Republican shift of 8 percentage points. He didn't shift the full 8.52; so, that's why he did not win a pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote. But, still, 49 states shifted in his (and his party's direction). Dole carried 19 states. Bush carried all of those 19 and won pickups of 11 states which carried for Clinton's re-election.

The 2000 presidential election is the last time New Hampshire carried for a Republican.

In 2004, John Kerry won a Democratic pickup of New Hampshire. Now he lost in the U.S. Popular Vote by 2.46 percentage points. But his margin in winning over that state was by about that much. And that began the Democratic tilt.

In 2008, Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote, over John McCain, by D+7.26. Obama carried New Hampshire by D+9.61.

Winning re-election in 2012, Obama's national margin was D+3.86. He carried New Hampshire by D+5.58.

Of the six New England states, New Hampshire is the one vulnerable to Democrats in a presidential election the party loses. But, for now, the state is tilting to the Democrats. This means that, if a Democrat wins a given presidential election, New Hampshire will definitely carry.