Hillary Clinton's Poll Numbers Look Nearly Unbeatable

[workinclasszero]

Hillary Clinton's Poll Numbers Look Nearly Unbeatable
KEVIN DRUM JUL. 7, 2016

Pew has another of its surveys out, this time a fairly generic presidential poll. They do this in June every four years, and they have a pretty good track record. Without further ado, here are the topline results:

Hillary Clinton is 9 points ahead of Donald Trump regardless of whether Gary Johnson is in the race. A subsequent question makes clear there's very little wiggle room here: among voters who support a candidate, nearly all of them say their choice is firm. Bottom line: there are very few undecided voters—who will probably break pretty evenly anyway—and everyone else says their minds are solidly made up.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/07/hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-look-nearly-unbeatable

[morningfog]

1. Indeed. And this time next month, after vp announcements and conventions,

there will be no anticipated events which can change the state of the race. The debates could have an impact, as could gaffes and blunders. But I expect all of those to break for Hillary.

That leaves just the unpredictable national and world events, again, which Hillary handles far better.

[CrowCityDem]

2. I honestly don't know what could turn people TO Trump at this point. He's a baked-in racist.

[AgadorSparticus]

4. There is a lady I work with that truly believes this is a white nation

And every non white person needs to get out. I shit you not. Guess who she is voting for?

[Doodley]

3. It looks very good, but nothing can be taken for granted.

In addition to the racist vote, there are people who will always vote Republican, no matter who is on the ticket.

There could be a "spiral of silence" at work in which people are too embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they would vote Trump. It is thought that this has affected polling in the past, such as in the UK 1992 election when John Major won a majority, significantly outperforming the polls. The more Trump becomes socially unacceptable, the stronger the effect could be.

That said, I expect Clinton to win. but am taking nothing for granted.

[Vattel]

5. Barring something crazy happening, I simply can't see how Trump could possibly win.