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HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
3. With her overwhelming support from blacks and hispanics it's amazing that it's close
Sun Jul 17, 2016, 05:59 PM
Jul 2016

at all.

Which demographic is so weak it offsets such strong support?

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
6. Yes, with Latinos, so why is she running only 4-ish points ahead on national avgs?
Sun Jul 17, 2016, 06:48 PM
Jul 2016

The leads she has amongn minorities would suggests at least one demographic is seriously under-performing in the polling.

I've noticed Trump does his best with likely voter polls while HRC does best with registered voters. That seems to suggest HRC does better with people ready and determined to vote. So care must be applied when looking at the running avgs but still. With very strong minority support, it's closer than might be expected against the worst republican candidate in the history of that party

rateyes

(17,438 posts)
7. I hate to say it, but if anyone but Trump were
Sun Jul 17, 2016, 07:35 PM
Jul 2016

the nominee for the GOP, Hillary would be in trouble, imo.

rateyes

(17,438 posts)
11. actually it would be 81 to 19. That's, of course, assuming 100% are voting one way or the other.
Sun Jul 17, 2016, 11:14 PM
Jul 2016

oh well. i was close enough for govt work. 😁

 

CobaltBlue

(1,122 posts)
12. rateyes—They don’t. Since 2000, two-party vote was between 96.25 and 99.00 percent.
Mon Jul 18, 2016, 07:15 AM
Jul 2016

I deliberately leave a one- to three-percent buffer.

Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
16. by all accounts, Romney was a disaster with Hispanic voters
Mon Jul 18, 2016, 08:50 AM
Jul 2016

and Obama won them by "only" 44%. Clinton is winning Hispanic voters by almost 50% more than Obama.

Now, if we can get Hispanic turnout to increase over 2012 and keep African-American turnout about the same, Trump is in a disastrous position to start.

Demsrule86

(68,578 posts)
17. Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote
Mon Jul 18, 2016, 10:18 AM
Jul 2016

He did horribly...only W was able to get any Hispanic vote. He won 40 % the first time and 44% the second time... Trump will do worse.

http://observer.com/2016/05/without-hispanic-voters-its-hasta-la-vista-trump/

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