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STATE OF THE ELECTION - August 2, 2016
97 Days to ElectionElectoral Models (270 to win)
PEC: Clinton 324.
NYT: Clinton 328.
538 PO: Clinton 310.
538 PP: Clinton 298.
Cook: Clinton 304 (44 tossups).*
R&G: Clinton 332 (15 tossups).*
Sabato: Clinton 347.*
Win probabilities
PEC: Clinton 82%.
NYT: Clinton 74%.
538 PO: Clinton 68%.
538 PP: Clinton 66%.
PredictWise: Clinton 74%.
Recent Polls
General 2-way (YouGov): Clinton 46, Trump 43.
General 2-way (NBC): Clinton 50, Trump 42.
General 4-way (YouGov): Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 8.
General 4-way (NBC): Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 9.
Nevada 3-way (Rasmussen): Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 10.
Comments:
Still under construction.
Methodology
Data for electoral models and probabilities is taken from Princeton Election Consortium, the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight (the polls-only model and the polls-plus model), Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, PredictWise. Entries with an asterisk (*) have not been recently updated. Polling data is aggregated from RealClearPolitics.
Quote of the Day:
"The tax which will be paid for the purpose of education is not more than the thousandth part of what will be paid to kings, priests, and nobles who will rise up among us if we leave the people in ignorance." --Thomas Jefferson
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