New poll shows Trump with commanding lead over Clinton in Tennessee

[TomCADem]

In some areas of the Country, Trump's support is actually growing as he has sharpened his attacks on Muslims, Hillary Clinton, establishment Republicans, and reality in general.

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2016/08/02/campaign-watch-new-poll-shows-trump-with.html

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Republican nominee Donald Trump would easily best his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Tennessee, according to a new poll of registered voters.

* * *

In a survey conducted from July 25-27 (during the Democratic National Convention), 49 percent of respondents favored Trump compared to 33 percent in favor of Clinton. Eighteen percent said they were undecided.

The poll showed strong party support for both candidates, but Trump also outpaced Clinton in this area: 88 percent of Tennessee Republicans supported their party's nominee, compared to 80 percent support among Tennessee Democrats for the former secretary of state.

Mark Keida, icitizen's vice president of polling and research, said the poll's biggest takeaway is that Trump has strengthened his support among Republican voters in Tennessee, with 32 percent of supporters saying they "strongly" favor Trump compared to 23 percent of Democratic voters favoring Clinton with the same intensity.

[Ilsa]

1. This worries me.

I think some people just get used to the insanity and go back to favoring the racist ass.

[glennward]

4. I believe we can win it without TN. nt

[Ilsa]

47. I'm worried about the overall possibility that

a lot of voters in the middle in many states will get accustomed to Trump's craziness and start blowing it off and vote for him. I'm afraid they'll buy into the excuses that he'll be "handled" by family as president. I worry that for voters, his authoritarianism and big male presence will win out over his irrational behavior.

[Demsrule86]

54. Worried? nt

[yeoman6987]

9. Has Tennessee ever gone democratic?

[eastsidemanglerNY]

12. RE: Has Tennessee ever gone democratic?

The 1996 Clinton/Gore reelection was the last time Tennessee voted Democratic. Gore/Lieberman didn't carry TN in 2000 (especially considering that it's Al's home state) and has consistently voted Republican ever since.

[oberliner]

13. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 and 1992

Pretty handily both times.

[pnwmom]

15. Both Al Gore and his father were popular Senators from Tennessee. So that was no surprise. n/t

[JI7]

36. his father lost for being too liberal and Gore was seen as more conservative, and since then

Tennessee has gone much more conservative which is why Gore lost .

[sufrommich]

41. Tennessee worries you? Did you think we'd win that state?

[Ilsa]

45. No, just the overall possibility that

a lot of voters in the middle in many states will get accustomed to Trump's craziness and start blowing it off and vote for him. I'm afraid they'll buy into the excuses that he'll be "handled" by family as president. I worry that for voters, his authoritarianism and big male presence will win out over his irrational behavior.

[Squinch]

57. I hear what you are saying, but I am confident in Donald's ability to keep disgusting people anew.

He is up to the task of keeping the disgust fresh.

But you are right in that the worst thing we can do is be complacent.

[Demsrule86]

51. Your concern is noted

However, when was the last time any Dem took Tennessee? That would be 1996. When the Dems swept the GOP out of office and Gingrich resigned as a result (impeachment outrage). The Dems have taken Tennessee 3 times in 36 years-1976(Watergate),1992 (Ross Perot),and 1996(Clinton impeachment). Why you would think a state with this voting history would go for Hillary is puzzling. All the good news and you are so concerned about this one poll in a red, red state?

[Ilsa]

60. No, not this one poll. I'm concerned about the next

96 days (or whatever is left). I do worry about low information voters changing their minds, new smears and "leaks", and possibly Trump pulling together his speeches and attacks. We have a long way to go, and voters can be fickle. I hope and pray and will work for maintaining this lead, but we also know the gop loves dirty tricks and ratfucking.

[Demsrule86]

61. It is early days

Polls will go up and polls will go down. We could lose the lead and get it back, we could ride the lead until November. The polls were mostly wrong in 12. But it is demoralizing to concentrate on bad news in my opinion...have you seen the good polls? A poll captures a moment in time...by the time we even see it...there has been a change. We can work very hard to elect Sec. Clinton. I find it hard to believe Trump could win, but I know hate sells...thus I am all in.

[Ilsa]

65. I'm optimistic, but also realistic.

Been through so many, since 1976 for my first presidential GE. I just wish the election was next week!

[MyNameGoesHere]

67. You're right and damn Indiana favors tRump too!

Fuck it's all over we lost.

[geek tragedy]

2. Tennessee Republicans embracing a bigoted asshole?

Never would have guessed.

[KMOD]

3. Tennessee is pretty red.

Romney got 60% to President Obama's 40%.

So 49%-33% isn't too bad this early in the game, considering.

[TeddyR]

5. Civitas/SUSA poll today has Trump +4 in North Carolina

So not just Tennessee.

[MFM008]

21. Just 2 matter

Florida
Virginia.

The rest can eat

[TeddyR]

22. Perhaps

But if Hillary can't carry Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado then way more than 2 matter.

[Cali_Democrat]

28. No way Hillary loses Nevada and Colorado. nt

[molova]

32. Teddy seems concerned

But is he?

[TeddyR]

34. If you aren't you should be

But are you

[molova]

44. I'm not. Not at all

I think you are concerned, just not because you think Hillary is in danger of losing.

[Demsrule86]

52. Why?

early days...such angst is demoralizing and not helpful.

[Squinch]

58. He often seems that way...

[yardwork]

42. Concern trolls are no longer welcome on DU.

If you see a concern troll, please alert on their posts. Thanks.

[TeddyR]

63. I'm not sure how to identify a "concern troll"

Please enlighten me so I'll know which posts to alert on and let me know what TOS is violated.

[molova]

49. Sorry Teddy, Hillary now up 15% in New Hampshire

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll

And your alleged concern in Colorado has no basis whatsoever due to Hillary's lead there in the latest CO polls.

[molova]

26. No cell phones

Criticized by experts.

[TeddyR]

35. I've noticed a curious phenomenon here

Every time a poll shows Hillary behind it is "criticized by experts," and if a poll shows her ahead nobody says a thing about its accuracy

[molova]

43. Are you denying this poll was criticized by experts?

I know you saw the links to experts criticizing the NC poll.
You are curiously annoyed by criticism of a poll finding Hillary behind. Why?

[Demsrule86]

53. Why would we tear apart a positive poll?

We want Hillary to win and would not engage in an activity certain to demoralize the base. Also, I don't post about it but I look at all polls internals. I am a math person so if the information pertaining the poll is there I can evaluate it somewhat. Right now she is ahead in states that matter. Tennessee is not one that matters.

[Squinch]

59. Why don't you take on that task? You go ahead and be the positive poll debunker.

[TeddyR]

62. I don't feel a need to debunk one poll

Or justify the results of another. I take them for what they are - a snapshot of electorate opinion on a certain day. The concern is when there is a trend, like the trend of Trump catching Hill leading up to and immediately after the Republican convention. The trend certainly seems much more favorable now.

[Squinch]

64. Still. You are concerned about the fact that no one is sufficiently negative

about positive polls. You are concerned that when a negative poll shows up, we look for reasons why it might not be valid.

You are concerned that no one set their hair on fire over the miniscule RNC bump "trend".

You totally ought to do something about that. Because of your concerns.

[AirmensMom]

6. I live in TN.

There are Trump signs everywhere. This place is unbelievably racist and ignorant. I don't mean to paint with a broad brush, but really ... Many of the people in this area are a perfect example of why we need to invest more in education and tax the churches for preaching politics from the pulpit. They "like that Trump speaks his mind" but couldn't say what it is that Trump actually plans to do if elected. And the women vote Republican because their moms tell them to. Then they say, "I really don't pay any attention, but I don't like Hillary."

[AgadorSparticus]

25. How absolutely frustrating and annoying.

[cheapdate]

29. Hello from Murfreesboro!

[DemonGoddess]

38. arrrgh

[Lars39]

40. Seeing the same.

Utterly depressing right now here in TN.

[okieinpain]

50. +1 n/t

[VMA131Marine]

7. The North Carolina Poll looks like an outlier

SUSA is the only repeated poll that consistently shows Trump leading. They must have a weird voter model:

[url=https://flic.kr/p/KnKJFf][img][/img][/url]

more at: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/#now

[CajunBlazer]

17. Actually, No, that is no longer correct

Nate Silver's predictions for North Carolina have flipped completely since July 31st. He now shows Clinton in the lead 56.2% to 43.8% for Trump in the polls he has adjusted for bias. .

Silver is now giving Hillary a 51.8% chance of winning NC in November with Trump having a 48.2% chance of winning.

[VMA131Marine]

23. I'm aware of that

that snapshot I posted is directly from the FiveThirtyEight Now-Cast for North Carolina. The new poll is included in the projection, but the project is still that Hillary would win if the election were held today.

[dubyadiprecession]

8. In Tennessee, they still think the sun goes to bed at night..

[Orcrist]

11. Screw Tennessee

Al Gore lost in Tennessee back in 2000 and it was his home state. I don't think that it's a place Democrats like us should spend much time worrying about. We aren't going to win it but thankfully we don't need it.

[Libby2]

14. I'm not surprised

says the woman that lives in the land of Scott DeJarlais and Sheila Butt.

It's so discouraging and frustrating.

[cheapdate]

30. And Diane Black and Marsha Blackburn.

[Libby2]

66. Yes, sadly, them too. n/t

[JaneyVee]

16. Wait until they debate.

[unitedwethrive]

33. Exactly!

[MelSC]

18. Makes sense I live in this shit state

Nt

[CajunBlazer]

20. Big Frinking deal

Did any one give Hillary any chance of winning Tennessee 11 electoral votes? Does anyone care? And guess what, Trump also has an excellent chance of winning Alabama's 9 electoral votes. Who cares? Those states haven't voted for a Democrat since Clinton/Gore and Gore was a Tennessee native.

Meanwhile Silver is giving Hillary a 98.% chance of picking u[p California's 55 electoral votes and 98.6% chance of winning New York's 29 electoral votes

[LenaBaby61]

24. It is the state of...

Marsha Blackburn.



Need I say more? That woman is a truly NASTY, VILE and DUMB piece of work.

IF we get out and work hard and don't become complainant, vote and GOTV and don't lean too heavily on polling favoring Hillary NOW or LATER on this fall, we should be "okay" without Tennessee's 11 electoral votes.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

31. God, I hate that woman....

Such a smug, smarmy worm who lies with zero hesitation.

[Garrett78]

27. The Dem candidate has lost TN by an average of ~17 percentage points...

...over the last 3 presidential elections. And Romney won TN by more than 20 points. White, male, veteran John Kerry lost TN by 14 points.

Even Gore lost TN.

[JI7]

37. this is comparable to a poll showing the Democratic Pres Candidate is leading in Massachusetts

[B Calm]

39. It's the bible belt. I guess Trump in their eyes will save the unborn.

[book_worm]

46. Trump is even running behind Romney in TN--in 2012 Romney won by 20 points

Hey, Democrats aren't going to win them all. There are some states, Tennessee among them, that will vote GOP no matter what.

[spanone]

48. well, the stupid here is pretty thick

[liberal N proud]

55. Trump is a Duck Dynasty candidate

That plays well in Tennessee

[whatthehey]

56. Well sure. He'll win KY and WV too

And of course plenty more besides that particular region - most of the usual big red L.

But you are just as much President with a fairly safe 290+ and likely 330-350 as you would be with 500+ EVs. Losing deep red states is neither a surprise nor a worry.

[Justice]

68. Poll taken before end of DNC Convention. Clinton would never win TN; Trump should be crushing

it but he is not. Wonder what poll would look like from TN today?