Wholely BATCRAP - Georgia is Blue

[LynneSin]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Georgia hasn't been blue since Jimmy Carter was first elected as President.

Mind you, it's not that Hillary is blowing them away down there, she's at 43%. But look at Gary Johnson - he is at 9% while Trump is at 38%. Mind you if there was a decent Republican running (ok one that isn't as vile like John Kasich) this state would be solid red, now THIS is a swing state.

I have to think many diehard Republicans who think Trump is vile but vowed to never vote for Hillary are thinking it's best to vote for Johnson and then get a better candidate to run against Hillary in 2020. (which she'll win again anyways )

Hover over some of those states like Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. The GOP would be winning those states if they had a normal candidate. And btw Trump is BARELY beating Hillary in Mississippi. (3pts). That is wretched for a republican where normally the GOP wins by 15-20 points.

Hillary needs to play it smart. She needs to keep a positive message and reach out to small groups like the stop she did at the Brewery in Florida. Let her counterparts attack Trump like Elizabeth Warren.

She's got this! I'm with HER!!

[Demsrule86]

1. This is so awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would be so excited to see the GOP lose Georgia...and other states too.

[geek tragedy]

2. it's not blue until it votes blue, let's make that happen nt

[MynameisBlarney]

8. Agreed!

It ain't over til it's over.

[Hortensis]

10. Yup, but supposedly if it stays blue through this month,

that'll be a very promising sign. I have trouble believing Hillary's enormous lead among women will shrink all that much now that large numbers see him as a danger, and of course with blacks and Hispancs the only big question is how many more than usual will come out to vote.

[ToxMarz]

14. People are stubborn and do not like to acknowledge they are ever wrong

My worry is people have 3 months to desperately search for any reason (no matter how twisted and convoluted) to vote for Trump so they can say they were right.

[Hortensis]

18. Absolutely true, and we're always seeing polls

swing up and down for various reasons. A terrorist attack in another country could cause a serious swing toward the last man in politics who could keep us safe.

But I still guess, based on nothing solid, that a majority of women who have decided against Trump will stick. After all, those include both liberals who are of-coursers and conservatives/Republicans who had to take an affirmative step to decide against him. They include a whole lot of mothers and grandmothers too.

[onehandle]

3. Actually, it was Blue in 1992. Bill Clinton won by 30,000+ votes.

I worked for the Democrats there that year. The next morning some executives were in the lobby of my building saying, 'At least he didn't win Georgia.'

I informed them that late in the night they finished the count and that by 3am Governor Clinton surged ahead to win Georgia.

(Didn't mention that I was at a Democratic election night party until 3:30am).

[Hortensis]

12. Lol. Must have been a really good party.

Good story!

[Brainstormy]

4. I Knew it was coming!

Awesome news!

[Blanks]

5. It's because Trump didn't pick Gingrich...

As his running mate.

They're punishing him.

[MineralMan]

6. We need massive GOTV efforts in those southern states.

Overcome the voter suppression and get the black vote out in every one of them. Imagine winning Mississippi.

We can do this, but it will take an effort on the part of the people living in those states and support from the DCCC and DNC to help make it happen.

[LAGC]

7. Just wait until Texas turns blue. (Give it a few more cycles.)

Republicans will truly be up shit creek without a paddle from that point on... at least insofar as the Presidency goes.

[LynneSin]

9. Once Gerrymandering is destroyed we will have a chance!

I have to think it's frustrating to vote when you know your shitty representative pretty much has a lifetime job.

I mean it's that way here in Delaware only because we have one representative but we like our guy. But if it was some whack job who does nothing I'd like to think we could vote them out!

[TexasBushwhacker]

17. Thankfully gerrymandering only affects district based elections n/t

[LynneSin]

24. You'd think but during mid-terms it has to be frustrating

We get serious voter turnout drop during mid-terms which hurts democrats. One reason that gets voters out to vote is a hot race, hence awesome voter turnout during presidential years. But for the casual voters, what incentive is there to vote knowing that your congressional race will not make a difference because the district is gerrymandered to death. I mean a state representative has a smaller district and thus SHOULD have a connection to their voter base. But Gerrymandering can create a sense of 'This person doesn't represent me and my frustration doesn't matter cause they'll get re-elected anyways'. We should NOT have a 90%+ re-election race for those House seats especially when the US House of Representative has an approval rating of like 10%.

And btw, states are trying to gerrymander those state-wide races. Pennsylvania attempted to change their electoral votes so that they would be rewarded based on the outcome of the house races. And since Pennsylvania is horribly gerrymandered it would be horrible for the democrats. Obama won Pennsylvania but if the GOP in PA got their way 15 of the 20 EV would have gone to Romney since 13 of the 18 House seats were won by Republicans (The 2 extra go to whomever had the most). And btw, I did the math, just as many people who voted for Obama in Pennsylvania also voted to have a democrat representative them in the House. That's how fucked up gerrymandering is.

The GOP wants to keep democrats frustrated because in the end we are the lazier of voters. If we feel there isn't any chance at the booth then we don't vote. It's a shitty thing but true. Abolishing Gerrymandering would have a positive effect on voters.

[cannabis_flower]

11. I'm wondering when

they are going to release a poll on Texas. They don't have a poll on Fivethirtyeight.com on Texas since a June 10-20th poll. That's before both conventions and before Donald and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week.

[progree]

13. Mississippi - Barely GOP -- LOL. I never thought I'd see that

3 point margin for Trump - probably within the margin of error.

Now if the Plains states would get their act together. Fortunately most of those are low in population density and electoral votes

[LynneSin]

16. We need those big population states and have many of them solidily blue

Pennsylvania, California, New York, Michigan, Illinois - right there is 120 off the bat that are strong blue. Two of those have US Senate seats where the incumbent is GOP so that probably means a pickup of 2 right there!

Add in a solid New England & Mid-Atlantic and you have another 71 Electoral. Now we are up to 191. Toss in the safe Northern States from Great Lakes and Pacific and that's another 39. That puts us at 230. Now we need just another 41. Pick from these combos below:

What's left to pick from, another 70EV is Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and at this point we don't even need Georgia. But if helps put a nail in the coffin of this fricking Tea Party then amen and Alleluia!

[BumRushDaShow]

19. MS is 37% black

So unless there is still some post-traumatic stress disorder going on there post-Medgar Evers assassination and Fannie Lou Hamer drama from the '60s, MS really should have a chance to go pale blue if some GOTV happened there. I remember interviews with folks in MS in 2008 when the media was trying to get a feel for the electorate there that could vote for Obama (I think this had been done during the week a debate was held there) and sadly too many were not even interested in voting.

[progree]

22. Yup, most of the deep south states have large minority populations. The reason they are deep red:

(in recent past elections) is that their white vote is so strongly red. In other regions of the country, the white vote is purple.

This article always left an impression on me (it deals with the white working class vote. It's from 9/30/2012)

...poll conducted a few weeks ago by the Public Religion Research Institute in Washington, D.C., ... that poll found that in the South, among white working class voters, Republican Mitt Romney leads Obama by the astounding vote of 62-22 percent — a 40 percentage point difference.

The poll defined working class as having less than a bachelor’s degree and being paid by the hour or by the job.

No other region in the country had anywhere near that differential. In the West, Romney led by just 5 percentage points among white working class voters. In the Northeast, he leads by 4 percentage points. And in the Midwest, Obama leads Romney by 8 percentage points among white working class voters.

So the margins for Romney over Obama are (among white working class voters):
South: +40%, West: +5%, Northeast: +4%, Midwest: -8%

The link [font color = red]WAS[/font] at: http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120930/COLUMNISTS21/309300041/1001/Joseph-Gerth-Polls-suggest-Kentucky-voters-gone-South?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CHome%7Cp

I don't remember what the title of the article was either. Oh well. I did some Googling but had no luck. I suppose I could try the Way Back machine...

[BumRushDaShow]

23. The interesting thing that has happened over the past 20 years

is that some of those states - notably NC and GA to a degree, have attracted northern transplants through either the banking industry (NC) or affordable housing (GA - where a good number of northern blacks migrated to the Atlanta metro area including a number of my friends and family). That has changed the voting dynamic where we saw NC go to Obama in 2008 (but not 2012). I even remember when Harvey Gannt was running for Senate in NC and really had a shot. But I also think the Confederate flag brouhaha seemed to be a wake-up call to some of the transplants there regarding the traditional sentiments and how GOTV really means get everyone out to vote!

[OnDoutside]

15. Chris Hayes did a great interview with Ben Jealous about Georgia, see here

http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/the-deep-red-state-that-could-turn-blue-740415043806

[DemonGoddess]

20. K&R!

[axiom3]

21. Excellent news

Trump is pretty much finished now. He's losing not only all of the battleground states, but several traditional GOP strongholds, such as Missouri or South Carolina. His path to victory is now all but nonexistent.

But let's not rest on our laurels yet. People in this country need to go out and vote for Hillary, as low turnouts can work in the GOP's favor.