2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRepublicans Set To Lose Senate Control
Republicans Set To Lose Senate ControlDemocrats have a 78 percent chance of getting 50-plus seats in November, the HuffPost Senate model shows.
08/21/2016 08:07 am ET Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post
The biggest electoral question of the year is undoubtedly who becomes the next president. But just after that follows the issue of whether the Senate majority will flip again. Republicans took the chamber with a 54-46 seat majority in the 2014 midterm elections. Keeping that lead in 2016, however, will prove a more difficult task.
According to The Huffington Posts Senate model, which relies on the polls aggregated in HuffPost Pollster charts, theres a 55 percent chance that the Senate will swing completely over ― and a 23 percent chance that its tied at 50 seats for each party. That means theres a 78 percent chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-78-percent-chance-50-senate-seats_us_57b8a525e4b0b51733a3cda0
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)in 2018 and DNC taking it again in 2020. Big time changes during these times. Mostly has to do with amount of seats each party has to defend during the year of the switch. In 2018, GOP has 8 to defend to DNC 23 seats. However Texas has Cruz who is disliked so that senate contest will be national news. We need a good democratic nominee to possibly take that seat.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Republicans are doing auditions to see who gets to star in The Impeachment Show.
lastlib
(23,323 posts)Teddy Cruzger needs a good Wendy ass-whuppin'!
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)He only won his first primary in an even lower turnout runoff after the frontrunner Dewhurst failed to get over 50% (He was at 44 to Cruz's 34). He will face a opponent after his DNC antics if/when Trump loses and if it's someone strong, he's toast.
Ligyron
(7,639 posts)If the Dems do a good job in 2016 while taking care of their own districts then 2018 may not be such a problem. Esp being incumbents at that point.
csziggy
(34,139 posts)The Republicans did it in 2010. The strategy was to control the state legislatures when the census came out so they were in charge of redistricting. THAT is why it takes more votes for Democrats to win than it does for Republicans.
Rachel Maddow has done segments about this tactic and so has NPR. It was called Operation RedMap.
How Republicans set up a decade-long advantage over Democrats
Chris Jankowski former president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, talks with Rachel Maddow about the Republican implementation of "Project RedMap" to win state legislatures for greater control of redistricting in 2010.
Video at link: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/how-the-gop-gave-itself-a-ten-year-advantage-407234115988
June 15, 20161:36 PM ET
Heard on Fresh Air
This is FRESH AIR. I'm Dave Davies in for Terry Gross, who's off this week. Our guest today, Salon's editor-in-chief David Daley, has a new book that he says began with a simple question. When President Obama won re-election in 2012 and a Democratic tide gave the party a big majority in the Senate, why did the House of Representatives remain firmly in Republican hands? The result was even more striking since voters cast 1.3 million more ballots for Democratic House candidates than Republican ones.
The answer, Daley decided, was effective gerrymandering of House districts following the 2010 census. And it's state legislatures that draw most of the congressional boundaries across the country. The result of Daley's research is his new book, which details an effort by Republican strategists to put money and campaign resources into targeted state legislative races in key states in 2010, so Republicans could control the statehouses and control congressional redistricting. Daley's book has a title I can't say on the radio. It refers to a crude term for a political dirty deed done cheaply. I'll approximate the title as "Rat-bleeped: The True Story Behind The Secret Plan To Steal America's Democracy" [Actual book title is "Rat-F*****: The True Story Behind The Secret Plan To Steal America's Democracy."]
<SNIP>
DAVIES: And the critical link here, of course, is that in most states, it's the state legislature that draws the congressional boundaries. They do the redistricting after each census. So he's getting at Congress by going to statehouse and state Senate seats often little-known to voters. This was called Operation RedMap. Explain the idea.
DALEY: The idea was that you could take a state like Ohio, for example. In 2008, the Democrats held a majority in the statehouse of 53-46. What RedMap does is they identify and target six specific statehouse seats. They spend $1 million on these races, which is an unheard of amount of money coming into a statehouse race. Republicans win five of these. They take control of the Statehouse in Ohio - also, the state Senate that year. And it gives them, essentially, a veto-proof run of the entire re-districting in the state.
More with transcript and audio of full program: http://www.npr.org/2016/06/15/482150951/understanding-congressional-gerrymandering-its-moneyball-applied-to-politics
This is why we need to get out the vote for ALL Democratic candidates at ALL levels!
Ligyron
(7,639 posts)To some extent it's a matter of money but in North Florida last election there were seats where no Dem was even running for instance. I have to imagine there are other states like that too.
Need to bring back the 50 state strategy.
csziggy
(34,139 posts)I called the Florida Democratic Party Headquarters a couple of months ago and they didn't know.
I'm no longer in her district - I'm in that little squiggle of Leon County that connects District 5 to Jacksonville and we have plenty of Democratic Candidates.
Oh wait! I have my sample ballot - now in District 2 there are Steve Crapps and Walter Darland for Congress. State District 8 has four candidates, while mine, District 9, has three. I don't know about the districts farther west. or the ones between here and Jacksonville.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Must be horrible to be a Republican today, nervously awaiting what your candidate says next and praying he says nothing
pandr32
(11,631 posts)Now don't get too comfy People--vote!
napi21
(45,806 posts)THAT would certainly shame the pubs into ineffectiveness! That and a slight majority in the house and a Dem President would finally enable us to clean up the tax code, reset the SCOTUS, overturn all the dumb rulings of Scalia & Co., start to repair our infrastructure, and on and on.
YES, I'm an eternal optimist!
bucolic_frolic
(43,364 posts)question is, can we make anything of it in October ... can we throttle up
and gain traction, will we use issues as wisely as possible?
Accelerate your efforts, whatever they may be
Join with fellow democrats on and offline
Think on how you can make a difference and then do it!
63splitwindow
(2,657 posts)Missn-Hitch
(1,383 posts)How do you see this playing out? What is McTurtle thinking? Do you think he may go ahead with hearings after Labor Day? I think it would be awesome if the President withdrew his nom if they do it. Cheers.
63splitwindow
(2,657 posts)name because he knows this is a man's career we are talking about and I don't believe he would play it that way UNLESS it was equally OK with Judge Garland.
Missn-Hitch
(1,383 posts)It would be sweet if Garland agreed. Too House of Cards I guess. Still fun thinking about it.
Ellen Forradalom
(16,160 posts)phylny
(8,390 posts)who is poised to be Senate Majority Leader?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Sen. Leahy is the number one democrat followed by Sen. Mikulski
SticksnStones
(2,108 posts)Missn-Hitch
(1,383 posts)LynneSin
(95,337 posts)If people think she's going to win then some of the marginal voters (those that only vote in 'hot' elections) might stay home and that could hurt some of these senatorial swing states.
Essentially we need to boot every 2010 GOP Freshman republicans (PA, IL, WI, NH), hold on to Nevada and possible steal back a seat in Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri or Arizona.
I think we have 4 wins pretty solid (the GOP Freshman 4 although if I am correct NC is also one but doesn't look good for us there). But if we lose Nevada that is going to make it tough - we would then need to pick up 2 seats from the Indiana, NC, Missouri and Arizona list. Evan Bayh is polling strong in Indiana but the other 3 are crap shoots at best.