Thoughts on Trump regaining the national lead?-45-43

[NewsCenter28]

Up 2 points in today's LAT/USC tracking poll, 45-43.

I think that my prediction that it will take the debates and Hillary's likely commanding performance in them for her to win is coming true.

I knew the landslide projections were too good to be true.

We're going to have to buckle down and engage in trench warfare, fighting for every vote. Howard Fineman reports that Hillary is waiting for summer to end and then has a massive frontal assault planned on Drumpf in September.

[Johnny2X2X]

1. He's down big in every other poll

This poll is a daily tracking poll and is not useful.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. Good lord

[NewsCenter28]

6. I was celebrating the Ohio poll from CBS

But then saw this on RCP and my day is literally ruined now. Feel like throwing up. Hopefully, the NBC News/SM poll on Tuesday contradicts this.

[Maeve]

14. You really need to unplug if this ruined your day

First, national polls are meaningless as predictors of the election--state-by-state matters much more. Second, this poll has even more limited predictive ability than many.(Dig into the details and chill) Don't let a single number make you sick in August; check out the aggregates.
Here's a good page for predictive numbers:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Sure thing

[Kingofalldems]

42. Too much man.

Not fooled.

[tgards79]

47. LA Times polls are all outliers

Every single one of them is a good 7+ points off the rest. The other four recent polls have Clinton up +5, +6, +9 and +6.

[Monk06]

53. Trackin polls monitor the same respondents over time based on their current opinions They are focus

groups not legitimate opinion poles that sample from random sources

[NCTraveler]

63. You are in for a long ride.

Did you really look?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

[nightscanner59]

3. WHAT?!?!

That's it. Too much of this country's population has gone stark raving insane. Think I'd best be brushing up on my Portuguese lessons and preparing to expatriate.
I'll take my chances with the Zika infested mosquitos than surviving another republican reign of economic terrorism.

[tammywammy]

4. National polls mean nothing

The electoral college is based off states.

[NewsCenter28]

7. It is an outlier true

But at the very least it suggests this race is close and not over, which ticks me off immensely.

Btw, I posted this since I'm ticked off and need to vent.

[apcalc]

5. That poll always seems to be an outlier.

[LenaBaby61]

13. I live here in California...

And I believe I mentioned this before that NO ONE I know has ever heard of this poll before this year.

Besides, I read that there are a group of only a few contributing to this poll, and who knows how many right-winged folks they're using for this poll? tRump has NO chance to win California. NONE. So this poll is quite an odd outlier poll if I do say so myself.

[NWCorona]

8. IMHO after labor day is when the polls will have more meaning

[MattP]

9. Same people polled every time

It's a miracle it ever moves at all, what a stupid idea

[Springslips]

55. Yeah. It has to be explained every time this poll reports.

It is a poll of the same people everytime.This is absolutely an invalid method of polling. All it shows is the changes in that group of people. A true valid poll is truly random and sampled from various populations each time.

Don't listen to this one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. SMH

USC/LA Times: interesting and exciting, but not too believable

DAVID M ROTHSCHILD ON POSTED ON AUGUST 20, 2016
Huffington Post’s Pollster does not include the USC/LA Times poll in their general election polling trend, but RealClearPolitics does. And, today, August 20, 2016 the USC/LA Times poll has Republican Donald Trump up 44.2 to 43.6. I do not believe the level of the poll (i.e., the head-to-head value), but I believe there is a lot of information in the movement of the poll. The sharp movement towards Trump does mean a movement towards Trump among the respondents in their panel, but their actual value of Trump up by 0.8 percentage points could be way off.

The poll uses a panel of 3,200 people who answer their demographics at the start of July and then answer their voting intention once per week through Election Day. They provide each respondent in a trailing seven day period with a weight that assures the sample resembles the voting population from 2012. Then, they further weigh each respondent by their stated likelihood to vote. Then, they report the fraction voting for each candidate.

I love this type of experimental polling, but there are few serious concerns on their methods:

http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/08/uscla-times-interesting-and-exciting-but-not-too-believable/

Alan Abramowitz ‏@AlanIAbramowitz 5h5 hours ago
LA Times/USC/Dorslife joke poll claims Trump getting 36% of Latino vote and 43% of "other nonwhite" vote--utterly absurd


Alan Abramowitz ‏@AlanIAbramowitz 5h5 hours ago
LA Times/USC/Dorslife poll remains a joke--showing Trump up 2, leading by 1 among millennials and trailing by only 16 among Latinos!

https://twitter.com/AlanIAbramowitz?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

There’s an interesting new entry in political polling: the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll. It’s different from other surveys because it’s a panel, which means it recontacts the same voters over and over. In 2012, a similar panel study done by RAND was considered a big success.

But so far, the U.S.C./LAT panel has consistently been far out of step with other surveys. Donald Trump has led in nearly every survey it has conducted in the last few months, by as much as seven percentage points. Even today, Hillary Clinton has only a one-point lead — even as she claims a comfortable lead nationwide. It was enough for the Drudge Report to feature the poll result prominently.


http://tinyurl.com/jb4ktg8

...

[Kber]

17. Thank you!

Can't be shared enough. This is not a traditional poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. It more closely resembles a panel study than a poll.

If the initial sample had a pro-Trump bias every subsequent sample is going to have a pro-Trump bias.

There is a lot of good information in the links i provided.

The predictive models give Hillary a 75% to 90% chance of winning:


http://tinyurl.com/gvlcd9d Scroll down to the middle of the page.






There is a theoretical chance she can lose. That is usually the case in any competition:

[MFM008]

31. The LA Times

has had Rump up all but ONE day.
Theyre poll would be sh#t.

[4139]

11. I question the accuracy of that poll, but not the trend of that poll

It is a tracking poll, an average of 7 days of polls...
Tramp didnt say a lot of stupid, ugly stuff last week, and his numbers tracked upward.

Let's see where the numbers track from now to Thursday... My bet is they'll be flat.

[Hav]

12. This is the poll that has been favorable to Trump consistently

It is also polling a part of the same people (a few thousand) again and again so if the sample they got was pro Trump from the beginning, it won't really change in later results. The only moderately interesting aspect of such a poll is the trend.
Just recently there was an article about this poll because it has Trump basically tied with Clinton with millennials which is in stark contrast to any other poll.
So don't get too upset whenever this poll has good results for Trump. It is just their sample of the population that they continuously poll.

[geek tragedy]

15. outlier poll with dubious sampling methodology nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Please see post #10.

I have some other things to say about posting it without question but I will keep my counsel to myself.

[daligirrl]

19. Right there with ya!

[Uponthegears]

24. Yep

[Cicada]

21. Absurd to rely on one poll. Average of polls far more accurate.

[ecodeathmarch]

22. Wtf, again

DU only place I see lib's talking about HRC losing. Silly

[Zynx]

23. The USC poll isn't a credible poll. He's losing everwhere else.

[RonniePudding]

25. So you ignore literally every other poll that has her ahead?

Your slip is showing.

[stopbush]

26. !

Oh, THAT poll.

[MFM008]

27. These outliers are for ONE

Reason. To drag down her national average.
They are figured into the average to make it look like a race.
That's it.
I bet Ass hole is paying for them.

[oasis]

28. "Says who?"

[still_one]

30. Here is their methodology

"It’s different from other surveys because it’s a panel, which means it recontacts the same voters over and over. In 2012, a similar panel study done by RAND was considered a big success.

But so far, the U.S.C./LAT panel has consistently been far out of step with other surveys. Donald Trump has led in nearly every survey it has conducted in the last few months, by as much as seven percentage points. Even today, Hillary Clinton has only a one-point lead — even as she claims a comfortable lead nationwide. It was enough for the Drudge Report to feature the poll result prominently."

One factor that could be contributing to the panel’s tilt toward Mr. Trump is its decision to weight its sample according to how people say they voted in 2012."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html?_r=0

[vadermike]

32. Lol

Shitty poll is well known it sucks Hillary actually increased her lead in new OH poll put this morning so there's that So no Trump is not leading

[MohRokTah]

33. Thoughts on the LAT/USC tracking poll being the only poll Trump staffers will share with him?

[stevenleser]

34. That poll is an outlier. LA Times has consistently shown Clinton 7-9 points lower than everyone else

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Just like the McClatchy poll a few weeks ago with Hillary up 15 points was an outlier, this one is too.

[NewsCenter28]

44. Just curious

Why do you automatically assume that I am a Trump supporter? I can show you my Twitter feed via PM to show I'm not. Also, why does this board consider anyone who doesn't like seeing bad news about HRC and maybe wants to discuss it to get an informative post like that from DSB to feel calmer a Trump Nazi troll?

I honestly don't.get.it.at.all.

Got it though. If I don't want to be considered a troll, I can only post positive rah-rah posts.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

54. The question is why are you picking one poll as affirmation....

.....Trump is "ahead"?

Have you heard of 538? Princeton Election Consortium? Serious questions...

[RonniePudding]

61. Do you care about any of the other polls?

Or are you exclusively locked into the Times poll this election season?

[MoonRiver]

36. Your concern is duly noted.

[RBInMaine]

37. BULLSHIT OUTLIER poll in complete conflict with all other polls.

[Blue Idaho]

38. Fucking Stop It!

This shit is getting rediculous...

If you want to look at polls - look at reputable sites that show poll aggregates and trends from reliable pollsters... 538 comes to mind just to mention one.

[ailsagirl]

40. Bye bye, now TROLL

[NewsCenter28]

43. Lol.

I support Obama/Clinton more than anyone else on this board can ever dream of. They've literally been my entire life since the 2006 midterms. I am very invested in seeing HRC win to say the very least to out an exclamation mark on the Obama legacy.

Unless I get banned, you'll just have to deal with my freak outs until she gets elected on November 8th. Then and only then will I get off the cliff.

Democratsincebirth, thanks for your calm informative post. It helps A LOT.

By the way, any idiot knows state polls lag national polls. If HRC ever truly slips nationally, it will show in the state polls. As long as she has a good national lead, we're fine though.

I don't go on Drudge. I saw this poll on RCP only because I was looking for the Iowa CBS poll. They just had Ohio posted for a while.

[farmboy]

59. Thoughts on DU Mem Using Results of a Much Discussed Dubious Poll as Pass/Agg Anti-Clinton Headline?

And then declaring to keep doing it unless banned?

If it walks...and talks... it is. Beware of the bait, my friends.

Legitimate tightening may and probably will happen, but this ain't it. No matter how much NewsCenter28 tries to "warn" us that it is.

[farmboy]

60. See my post #59 and my paste here of another post from a thread on this ridiculous poll.

Post below is from member Molova on another thread on the crap poll being discussed here.



"Those who had doubts that Vladimir Putin is rooting for Donald Trump should read this new article from an online outlet controlled by the Russia Government (Sputnik News):
"Media Blackout: Trump Surges Past Clinton in Major Poll, Press Cites Older Polls".

The headline does not explain how a poll that never existed until 2 months ago is a "major" poll. Nor does it address the fact that the poll is an outlier.

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160821/1044496158/trump-poll-surge-crooked-hillary.html

More importantly, why in the world is Russia so butthurt due to the coverage (or alleged lack thereof) of this poll?"

[Kingofalldems]

41. Breitbart was pumping up this poll.

[Dem2]

45. OFFS

OK, I am leaving DU again, every time I come here there's a dark tunnel "single poll" post waiting for me.

[0rganism]

46. actually, i think this is a Good Thing

look, do you want the RNC to replace tRump in September? no? well what's it gonna take to keep tRump in the race?

he appears to love being up in national polls, outliers or not. this will help keep him in for the long haul.

patience. the poll is almost certainly an outlier, but such outliers are going to be essential for keeping up the tRump campaign's morale through September.

[Warren DeMontague]

48. Thoughts?

I think smoking crack is bad for people.

[backscatter712]

49. That poll's an outlier.

Fivethirtyeight.com still shows Hillary with a commanding lead, when all the math is done across all the recent polls.

[DemonGoddess]

50. I'm thinking that one is an outlier

good resource for everyone

http://election.princeton.edu/category/2016-election/

[NurseJackie]

51. I only trust online polls from AOL.

[Miles Archer]

52. RCP 8/1-8/20: Clinton +5.3, +5, +6, +9, +6, +8, Trump +2, AVERAGE Clinton +5.3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[brooklynite]

56. If Trump is doing so well, why are the Republicans panicking?

Republicans prep ‘break glass’ emergency plan as Trump tumbles

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/republicans-prep-break-glass-emergency-plan-as-trump-tumbles-227217

[Rex]

57. It doesn't mean anything at all, but your concern is noted.

The poll means nothing, if you are this upset about it I suggest dropping politics for something easier on the palette.

[DFW]

58. My thoughts are as follows:

I have no thoughts on Trump's gaining the national lead because I see no solid evidence that he has done so.

Apparently, given the tumultuous turnover in his campaign staff, neither have they.

[BlueMTexpat]

62. I only pay attention to

those statisticians who know what they're talking about. National polls mean little at any time - and even less now - when a Presidential race is won or lost in the states.

The only polls I pay attention to are composites or those that predict the likelihood of a candidate's success, such as on FiveThirtyEight and the Princeton Election Consortium.

FiveThirtyEight http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo FiveThirtyEight also has a good article about why national polls look to be tightening while those in the states are not. It also mentions this LA Times poll and doesn't have much respect for it. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-national-polls-show-the-race-tightening-but-state-polls-dont/

Princeton Election Consortium Sam Wang has a rather wonky article that he posted yesterday. But he knows what he's doing. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/21/sharpening-the-forecast/

[mercuryblues]

64. the actual numbers are

trump 44.6 and Clinton 43.5. That is a 1.1% difference. The only sources for the 45-43 % is trump and breitbart. Both of those sources should give you pause for truthiness.