Clinton Gains 1.4 Points In the Averages

[Doctor Jack]

I see the debbie downers are flooding the forum today with sad polls, mostly from no name poll companies, but lets go with good news. Clintons average lead nationally is up to 7 points today after falling to 5.6 points rather suddenly over the weekend. The thing that seems to be really dragging her down are these sketchy tracking polls that are suddenly coming out of the woodworks.

And a little more perspective. Clinton is doing better at 538 than Obama was at this point in 2008 and 2012. In fact she is about 15 percentage points higher in her odds of winning than obama was in late august 2012. And her average national lead is quite a bit higher than obamas in late august 2012 and 2008. So lets not let the late august doldrums get us down. She has only lost 1 point in the averages in the last few weeks and it was bound to happen. Think happy thoughts as we hit the final stretch.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

[La Lioness Priyanka]

1. some people seem to have the attitude that if she doesn't win by 30 points

she may as well have lost. these people clearly do not understand modern elections and are just looking for some reason to gripe about Clinton.

[Doctor Jack]

3. That and there will be ebbs and flows in the numbers

You can go back to past elections and see periods where the polls tend to tighten and when the leading candidate tends to pull ahead. Late august tends to be quiet and when things are quiet, the polls get a little closer. You always see the same thing in early July.

The idea that trump suddenly as mass appeal, for no reason, and a 1 point drop in clintons average lead is the sign of the apocalypse is ridiculous. Clinton will almost certainly win and it will probably be by a significant margin. Freaking out over insignificant shifts in the polls and cherry picking the worst polls for her is a waste of time.

Ebbs and flows, noise, reversion, etc its all we are seeing. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Its a predictable rhythm in the numbers. However, people will just attribute whatever is happening today to any shift in the polls, even of it was going to happen irregardless.

[vadermike]

2. Agreed

And notice the Debbie downers didn't see brand new poll just now UPI which is heavy R leaning which had trump up by a few now has Clinton ahead and she's at 50

[mcar]

4. Thank you

This is landslide territory.

[daligirrl]

5. Somebody was posting some real hair on fire stuff today!

[treestar]

6. Yeah, already saw the first claim of "tightening"

which will be said any time one tenth of a point changes!

[Downtown Hound]

7. I've been hearing how Clinton's lead is slipping for more than a year now

If it really was slipping that much, she'd be well below zero by now.

[Doctor Jack]

8. Andrea Mitchell says she is at -47%

Dead people will actually come back to life to vote against her