Here's why I think the race is not close

[piechartking]

For some unknown reason (maybe inexperience, maybe the false confidence that comes from easy success without mastery), Trump refuses to get down in the mud and do the mundane, nuts-and-bolts things that it takes to win a Presidential election. The most important task is to build up your campaign infrastructure, especially in the swing states.

This will allow you to reach out to voters through mass media, direct mail, social media, volunteers. Someone has to plan that. Someone has to build it. Someone has to coordinate it (and when I say coordinate, I'm talking about building a technology platform that can house the millions and millions of data points about voters and feed that data in useful ways to all the components of the campaign). Then you can target voters for GOTV, persuasion.

Trump has done NOTHING. He thinks he can magically persuade voters via the airwaves with all his earned media. Sadly, he's got another thing coming, unless he is WAY ahead in polling on Nov. 8 (unlikely).

PBS had an article about this the other day: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/trump-campaign-has-ground-game-problem.

Here's another article about how the lag in ground game will KILL Trump: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/20/why-donald-trumps-1980s-style-campaign-is-struggling-in-2016/

Finally, here's some news today from the Tampa Bay Times (via Washinton Post), about Trump having ONE (yes, ONE) field office open in all of the state of FL, as of September 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/01/donald-trump-has-1-field-office-open-in-all-of-florida-thats-a-total-disaster/?postshare=9551472745786264&tid=ss_tw

[OldHippieChick]

1. Ground game is so important at this point.

It's GOTV and constant phone-banking. This should make the race far more advantageous to Hillary.

[MyOwnPeace]

2. I SO want to believe that..........

but, you know, it's just a nagging feeling that "it ain't over 'til it's over!"

We all wanted and believe President Obama was good for 2012, but yet, we had to stay up to watch the tallies, and, even more shocking, how SHOCKED Mitt Romney was when he lost! He hadn't even considered putting together a concession speech! (funny thought: can you imagine what Trump's will be like! ).

[politicaljunkie41910]

4. Oh, thanks for reminding me. That WAS funny.

I recall one of the female pundits stating that that was a "Victory Beaufont" that Ann Romney was wearing on her head. Also Karl Rove refusing to allow Fox to concede that Obama had won. Rove kept saying that his information was saying otherwise.

[MyOwnPeace]

7. Isn't that when......

Megyn Kelly said something about his "math" -

"Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better, or is this real?"

[csziggy]

6. I'll never get over 2000 or 2004

When we thought we had won - BOTH times - only to have the rug pulled out from under us.

I seriously researched moving to Belize after each of those elections. Now I am too committed to give up on my country and what it should be to leave it to the Trumpsters and their deviant idea of the USA.

I don't care what the polls say - we need to fight for every single vote and make absolutely sure we do everything to get Hillary Clinton into office.

I want to see Trump do this on November 8th:

[Grown2Hate]

3. That's what I keep telling myself, too. It's one thing to be a "likely voter" in these polling

models, but it's quite another to have a coordinated ground effort ACTUALLY working to make SURE all of your voters are getting out there. Trump has next to NONE of that going on. It's my sincerest hope that you're 100% on the money in November.

[ailsagirl]

5. Great piece-- thanks!

What I don't understand is why this race is presented as "close" anywhere, because Nate Silver's analyses always put HRC WAY ahead of drumpf. Should I not take his forecasts too seriously??