The YouGov Polls moved the meta margin to 5.1 and The Bayesian to 95% -HMMM

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://election.princeton.edu/

[writes3000]

1. I'm going to bookmark this Princeton election website. Thanks, DSB.

[Demsrule86]

2. They were more accurate than Nate in 12. nt

[RAFisher]

3. Based on what metric? 538 had a perfect map while Princeton had Obama losing Florida.

Obama won Florida. I'd say 538 did a better job then. Also on election day 538 was closer to the actual popular vote than Princeton.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

[Demsrule86]

4. No Wang beat Silver.

"Neuroscientist Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium made a bold call last night.

Wang indicated that his model found that Obama would close with 332 Electoral votes.

Wang also called the following popular vote spread:

Final predicted popular-vote margin: Obama +2.2 +/- 1.0%.
Two-candidate vote share: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.
This morning, what did we find? Well, if Florida goes to Obama, he'll close out with a strong showing of 332 electoral votes. And as for the popular vote, here's what Wang says in his "morning after" post:The popular vote is Obama 51.1% to Romney 48.9%. Again, this exactly matches my prediction, which was state polls with a little Bayesian help from national polls."

http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-sam-wang-the-neuroscientist-who-beat-even-nate-silver-in-his-election-prediction-2012-11


Nate's model was not as accurate: 313 Obama and 225 Romney. Wang was also right about the popular vote.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

[Coyotl]

5. Reducing state-level Presidential polls to a single high-precision snapshot.

Reducing state-level Presidential polls to a single high-precision snapshot.



-white

[oberliner]

6. HRC should win

The electoral map is definitely a favorable one.

We just need to hold the Obama states.