Okay I am calling it now. Hillary will win with 400+ EVs.

[yellowcanine]

Last edited Thu Sep 8, 2016, 01:15 PM - Edit history (1)

She is going to win Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and Arizona + the 2008 Obama states. And maybe Mississippi. The Dallas Morning News endorsement, along with the Trump meltdown last night, the still breaking Bondi bribery scandal and the Gary Johnson meltdown this morning combined with her new strategy of engaging the press all have created the perfect storm which is going to carry the day for Hillary. You heard it here first.

[EricMaundry]

1. From your lips to God's ear

As they say.

[lewebley3]

14. She can win: if we work and vote for her and the Dem's

[BlueMTexpat]

15. + a million or so! eom

[bigdarryl]

2. It"s not April fools

[MineralMan]

3. I'll predict 350+, as I have been doing.

400 is probably too high, though.

The real General Election campaign has just begun, though, so almost anything could happen.

[MoonRiver]

4. Bookmarked!

[Democrats Ascendant]

5. I've dared to dream of 444....

[tammywammy]

6. I don't think she'll win Texas.

Though I am encouraging all republicans I know (which are many...it's Texas) to vote Johnson if they won't vote Clinton. The DMN endorsing Clinton is a big deal. It was on the local news last night and this morning.

If she loses by less than 10 it's a win here.

What I really hope for is that this momentum holds two years for the governor's race. I'd love it if out of state dem help would push through and get us a dem governor.

[DarthDem]

7. 400 EVs!

Awesome enthusiasm. Sounds a bit out of reach as far as 400 goes, but I'll be quite happy with 270, and "happy" shall mean elated, relieved, feeling that our country has been saved, etc. And I'll gladly take 330-350 EVs.

[Jim Lane]

8. The "Gary Johnson meltdown" doesn't help Clinton, it hurts her

I use the scare quotes because I think “meltdown” greatly overstates it.

Putting that aside, one important dynamic in the election is the lifelong, rock-ribbed Republicans who are aghast at Trump. Many will apply clothespins and vote for him anyway. Some, however, will look at a Libertarian Party ticket composed of two not-obviously-crazy former Republican governors, and will consider voting for Johnson to be a viable alternative. They don't have to agree with his leftist views on drugs and foreign interventions. They know it doesn't matter because they know he won't be elected anyway.

Anything that makes Johnson look bad – especially if it highlights his comparative reluctance to engage in imperialist wars – will send some of those voters back to Trump. Switches from Johnson to Clinton will also occur but will be less numerous.

[Wounded Bear]

9. I keep hearing this...

I just can't make the logical connection myself. I take this instance to say that I disagree with those experts. IAE, it won't matter. The election won't be close enough to allow a 3rd party swing it to Trump.

One thing to note, the national popular vote doesn't matter. No 3rd party will win any states. The electoral vote won't be affected by Johnson or Stein. Book that.

[Jim Lane]

16. About third-party impact

I agree that no third party will win any electoral votes. That doesn't mean that they won't affect the electoral vote, though. It's quite possible that (1) in a particular state (or CD in Maine or Nebraska), Johnson, Stein, McMullin and the rest of the minor candidates could, collectively, pull more votes from one major-party candidate than from the other, and (2) the vote there will be close enough that the difference made by the minor candidates swings the state from Clinton to Trump or vice versa.

For example, in North Carolina, my vague recollection is that Johnson made the ballot but Stein didn't (unless a court orders her included). At electionprojection.com (site by Trump supporter but he tries to play it straight with the polls), the current polling average is: Clinton 43.6%, Trump 43.0%, Johnson 7.6%, Stein 2.7%. I find it quite plausible that Johnson's presence on the ballot is pulling more votes from Trump, and by enough to more than account for Clinton's 0.6% lead. If Johnson is on but Stein is off, of course, the net gain for Clinton is even stronger.

[Abouttime]

10. Trump could easily lose all 50 states

There are legal nightmares looming for Trump, from underage rape to bribery, fraud to IRS audits. I look for Obama and the DOJ to drop the hammer on trump sometime in October. It would be the greatest "October surprise" in history and it would eliminate any hope of the repukes controlling the presidency or either house of congress. It would be a brilliant political move on Obama's part and it would be a mortal wound to the already weakened Republican Party.
An indictment of Trump would fracture the party and likely lead to a split that would form a new third party that would never represent a real majority in the American political landscape.
What was left of the republicans would be nothing more than far right religious white klan types who are literally a dying breed in the population of the USA.
The USA is becoming more liberal, more brown and black and more gay. Obama realizes this and he knows one fatal blow to Trump and the entire right wing hate inspired political machine would crumble. Above all Obama loves America, an indictment of Trump would be the greatest gift of the many he has bestowed upon us.

[NewJeffCT]

19. Then, Trump becomes a legendary figure in American political history

by dropping out two weeks before the election. His name will be forever memorialized in American political history as the candidate who dropped out and subsequently destroyed the Republican Party.

[whatthehey]

11. Too optimistic, but who cares? 300 (technically less of course) makes you POTUS just the same.

If I had to pick a number, a single number, I'd go 333 but could be anywhere from 304 to 358 depending on what happens in the next couple of months. More than 358 (all the usual swings plus IA and AZ) would be tricky. I suppose I could stretch to 359 if she swings the sane sliver on the far east of NE for 1. TX, GA etc are extremely wild geese this cycle.

[CajunBlazer]

12. I don't think so

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512401539

[ananda]

13. It's the Senate I'm concerned about.

The big money from the Kochs and their ilk are going
into these races.

What are the Dems doing?

We've already lost Ohio, which should have been an easy win!

[MoonRiver]

18. Why are you saying we've already lost Ohio?

[LostinRed]

17. Lol yeah i think you're right

If the media starts to report the truth and stops as Obama said grading on a curve

[bucolic_frolic]

20. South Carolina?

Now you're reaching for it