New Quinnipiac polls show very tight race, Trump +1 in Ohio, tied in Florida

[anneboleyn]

Hi everyone, CNN just announced the new Quinnipiac battleground state numbers. They reported the numbers with and without Johnson and Stein. If Johnson and Stein are included it seems that it puts Hillary at a bigger disadvantage in Ohio. The numbers here are from head-to-head match ups (so not including Johnson and Stein):

FLORIDA: Clinton 47 - Trump 47
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 43
OHIO: Trump 46 - Clinton 45
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43

The media has their horse race now I suppose. I personally think Hillary will win ALL of these states. The media wanted a horse race after Labor Day so suddenly we have a horse race, and the media gets to say that Hillary's numbers are "plummeting" (of course they never comment that Trump hasn't actually gained much support). I haven't looked into Quinnipiac's methodology yet. Here is a link to their site:

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376

[democrattotheend]

1. This is the first time this year they have used the likely voter screen, right?

If so, we should not necessarily view this as the polls tightening from last month. I think turnout is going to favor Republicans this year more than it did in 2012.

[geek tragedy]

3. why would turnout favor Republicans moreso this year than in 2012?

There's a MUCH bigger gap in the GOTV apparatus between Clinton and Drumpf than there was between Obama and Romney, who mounted a decent GOTV effort.

[gabeana]

5. I know Romney

was betting on the likely model,
People panic on the polls the key is the GOTV, she's got this

[democrattotheend]

6. True. But Democratic voters were a lot more excited about Obama

Even in 2012 than they are about Hillary now. And while many mainstream Republicans are queasy about Trump, his core supporters are very excited and motivated.

Plus, the likely voter screen almost always favors Republicans compared to polls of registered voters, because Republican voters tend to be more reliable voters in general. Democrats are younger, move around more, are more likely to work long hours, are less likely to have ID, and are more likely to be stopped from voting due to Republican suppression tactics.

[geek tragedy]

7. Not all Republicans are core Trump supporters, Democrats in general are more enthusiastic

about Clinton than Republicans (especially college educated ones) are about Trump.

One thing to keep in mind--college educated voters turn out with greater regularity than do non-educated voters. Trump's base is uneducated white voters.

[apcalc]

26. I am way more excited about Hillary than I ever was Obama.

[democrattotheend]

30. Plenty of people are

After all, a little less than half the party supported Hillary over Obama in 2008. I am guessing you were one of those people. But overall Obama was a better campaigner, and I think Hillary would be the first person to agree with that. In particular, Obama generated more enthusiasm among less frequent voters, like college students. And there's also the 8-year fatigue phenomenon - the party out of the White House for 8 years typically is more motivated to win it back. That dynamic worked for us in 2008 but works against us now.

[still_one]

17. In addition there are a good number of influential republicans who have already come out and said

they would not vote for trump

Quinnipiac also has other issues"

"To understand why Quinnipiac’s polls are always more favorable to Trump, it is important to look at the assumptions that Quinnipiac makes about the composition of the 2016 electorate. Each Quinnipiac University poll assumes that white voter turnout will go up, African-American turnout will stay the same, and Hispanic turnout will drop.

The chart below shows white voter turnout in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in 2012 versus Quinnipiac’s 2016 projections:

quinnipiac-white-voters

If Quinnipiac’s white voter turnout was adjusted to actual voter turnout levels, Clinton would lead by 3 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Ohio, and be tied in Florida.

However, the oversampling of white voters is only half of the problem. Quinnipiac’s polling also underrepresents minorities."

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/07/13/quinnipiac-universitys-poll.html

I will see what the other pollsters come up with as a control

There is no doubt that a good number in this country are either racists or have racists tendencies, but I still find it hard to believe it is the majority.

In addition, I believe the gender factor will be a big deal

The media and many of the pollsters were notorious for misrepresenting the primary results. Not only with the republicans, but also the Democrats. While Bernie did quite well, Hillary still became the nominee with over 4 million more votes, but that took away from the horse race theme, which is why Nate Silver's assessment contradicted a lot of the pollsters that made the headlines, and the same thing is happening now

Of course we need to GOTV, but as long as that occurs, we win

[llort.a.i]

2. exciting times

This is good news. It looks like we're going to have an interesting lead up to the elections. Looking forward to it.

[MADem]

22. Welcome to DU....

You have a rather curious user name--it spells i.a.troll backwards--is that your sense of humor at play?

[Democat]

24. A user with the username "troll" says he likes pro-Trump polls

Welcome to DU.

[democrattotheend]

4. I can live with that

I am concerned that it's a little tighter than the last Quinnipiac polls, although that might be because they switched to the likely voter screen, which usually helps Republicans.

But if she can win Pennsylvania and North Carolina, she doesn't need Ohio or Florida. And she probably doesn't need North Carolina either, as long as she can hold Colorado and Virginia.

[anneboleyn]

12. That is my comfort at this point. She has many ways to win this thing.

[democrattotheend]

13. That said, I don't completely discount national polls

They are the most useful for showing trends. Generally, when a candidate's support goes up or down nationally the same happens in the state polls, but the state polls are often slower to reflect changes because they don't get polled as often by the same pollster (which is the best way to measure a trend). So if on November 7 the last tracking polls have things shifting toward Trump I won't take much comfort in week-old state polls showing Hillary winning.

[anneboleyn]

8. The new Suffolk poll has Trump ahead in North Carolina 44 to 41

Again I think Hillary will win all of these states but it is annoying to me that Hillary is not ahead in these polls. The media's nonstop negative treatment of Hillary, which is finally being noticed by some after last night's insanely biased debacle, is taking its toll on her numbers.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php

[stopbush]

9. Oh, THAT poll!

[MoonRiver]

23. Exactly

[Doctor Jack]

10. Nate Silver says add 4 points to Clintons numbera for quinn

So Clinton +4 in Florida, +5 in NC, +3 in Ohio, and +9 in Penn.

Looks good to me

[anneboleyn]

15. Thank you for this -- he always has the best read on these polls. I don't believe the numbers from

Quinnipiac since their methodology favors republicans. What does bother me is that the numbers give the idiot Trumpers a new talking point and "evidence" of Trump's "pivot" (all total bullshit of course)

[former9thward]

29. That is not what he said today.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-swing-states-are-tightening-too/

[VMA131Marine]

11. Quinnipiac has taken on a Trump lean in previous Florida polls

Florida: July 30-Aug7 - C 43%; T43%; J 7%: During the same time frame all the other polls were showing a Clinton lead of 5-10%
North Carolina: This is the first Quinnipiac Poll of NC and shows a lead at the upper end of the current polling range
Ohio: July 30-Aug7 - C 44%; T42%; J 8%: So this is variation within the MOE. The current polling range is from Trump +3% to Clinton +7%
Pennsylvania: Recent polls show a Clinton lead of 3-8% and this Quinnipiac result is right in the middle of that range

Only Ohio looks like a near toss-up to me. I think Hillary will win the other three states comfortably. Trump is doomed if she wins any two.

[democrattotheend]

16. She probably only needs one of the four

Assuming she holds Virginia and Colorado, which both sides seem to think is likely, and either Iowa or Nevada, she only needs 1 of these 4 unless Trump flips another blue state like Michigan or Wisconsin (unlikely but possible).

[anneboleyn]

18. This is great and very helpful. I think you are right -- I think she will win Ohio but close

[LynnTTT]

14. Reliable polling

To be accurate, pollers must call a ton of people. But then filter down the answers to reach the same demographic as reflected by the actual voters:
If a state is 48% GOP and 52% Dem., it must be reflected in the poll
Registered voters only
Then break down by race, male and female, age and even education.
And call home phones and cell phones. How that gets split I dont know.

In fact, I don't think polls are accurate at all! We never answer our mobile phones unless we recognize the caller and have no home phone. And we are in out late 60's!

Most pollers, even reputable ones, don't go this far in every poll

And the question must be who will vote between the four.
And then who you'll vote for between the two

[yellowcanine]

19. Not too bad considering that last night and Bondi scandal not factored into those polls.

I do believe polls taken this week will show a shift in Hillary's direction.

[molova]

20. Your title excludes states where Clinton leads

What's your goal?

[jamese777]

21. Read the post not just the title...

"The media has their horse race now I suppose. I personally think Hillary will win ALL of these states."

[DarthDem]

25. Those Numbers Don't Actually Show

. . . a tight race. Even setting the Qrap-poll's obvious bias aside, a five-point Clinton lead in PA is the end for the Con. Florida's always a virtual tie in various polls and so is Ohio, and we don't need either. The real headline news is that Clinton is leading in NC by four points!! If that keeps up, this thing is over, and Dick Burr will be looking for work as well.

[Loki Liesmith]

27. Nate Silver's numbers went up when QPAC came in.

lol

[aintitfunny]

28. Here is info on Quinnipiac's lack of polling accuracy

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/9/17/1330418/-Why-you-shouldn-t-freak-out-about-Quinnipiac-s-new-polls

PS - they are not accurate, seem to always lean to the right and I doubt their polling abilities have changed.

Here is a similar poll from 2012: https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2012-presidential-swing-states/release-detail?ReleaseID=1804