I forget now-- how reliable is Quinnipiac??

[ailsagirl]

According to it, drumpf is edging closer to Hillary-- and they're even in Florida. I'm hoping they're not very reliable.

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Reliable with a quantifiable R lean

See 538s pollster page for more details.

Note that after these polls came in...Hillary's numbers on 538 went up. They are GOOD numbers.

Reliability and accuracy are not the same thing.

[ailsagirl]

4. This is true

And we still have two months-- two months from today.

[pkdu]

2. 538 gives them an A-

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[ailsagirl]

3. wow-- that high??

[Loki Liesmith]

6. The grade is heavily weighted toward it's reliability

The poll gets fewer crappy samples then others. But their model is biased a bit. Nate doesn't penalize as much for bias.

[ailsagirl]

8. After the pitiful showing in last night's program, how he could be trending higher is a mystery

Maybe it takes a few days for the polling to catch up with last night's debacle

[Adrahil]

7. They have an R lean, but but it is consistent.

Not a bad methodology, but their population model favors R's. It's a bit odd they haven't corrected for it.

[jamese777]

9. Quinnipiac's Republican Bias

is calculated by 538 blog as 0.7%. So add a point to any Democrat's rating.

[PJMcK]

10. This is a bit off-topic but there's humor at the end

From 1986 until 1993, I lived on City Island in New York. One of my neighbors, who became a very good friend, worked for a major television network just at the advent of the internet. He was in charge of political polling for this network and he was remarkably intense about his fealty to the integrity of their polls. He was a disciple of Stan Opotowsky who developed many of the algorithms that are fundamental to modern polling techniques. Here's a link to Stan's history:

http://www.nytimes.com/1997/10/02/business/stanford-opotowsky-73-editor-at-new-york-post-and-abc-news.html

On the evening I met Stan, we drank a lot! He expressed a lot of fantastic observations and comments with insight, humor, intelligence and a decidedly Democratic political point of view.

That evening, we went sailing on my boat and I learned the Opotowsky Traffic Theorem: When driving a car in a major metropolitan area, and while listening to the local traffic reports, always do the opposite of the broadcasted directions. This is because everyone else is listening to the same broadcast. By the time you reach that interchange, everyone else will have diverted to the alternate location.

And there's a codicil: Never comment to the other people in the car about the traffic whether it's good or bad. Acknowledging the power of the universe over traffic only increases the frustration and potential for pollution of the sample.

He was a really fun gentleman who was clearly a liberal Democrat.

[ailsagirl]

14. Thanks for the post!

It gave me a smile

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Do you forget?

Really?

[ailsagirl]

12. Did I forget if Quinnipiac is reliable?

Well, yes-- that's why I created this thread

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. Oh, good

I thought is was sarcastic troll shit, or Reliving the Primaries assholistic crowing or something.

You were being authentic! My mistake.

[ailsagirl]

15. Oh, I see

You know, I hate reading threads like the one I started but was hoping Quinnipiac wasn't very reliable.

"sigh"

No problem! No troll I!! (or is it me?)

[Cicada]

16. Not as reliable as the average of all polls

Any one poll is unreliable. So don't pay attention to a single poll. There is really no point.