Bloomberg Ohio poll

[helpisontheway]

Trump 43%
Hillary 38%
Johnson 10%
Stein 3%

September 9-12
*so this includes some data after illness announced

[book_worm]

1. A lot of Republicans were polled....

Party breakdown for the poll was 33 percent Republican, 29 percent Democrats, and 34 percent independents. Exit polling shows that Ohio's electorate in the 2012 presidential election was 38 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent

[writes3000]

3. Thanks, book-worm.

[helpisontheway]

4. Okay..thanks gor info. Nt

[SCliberal91294]

2. Sample

32% reps, 28% dems, 34% ind

[leebaba1992]

5. dissapointing poll

hopefully doesnt get worse

[book_worm]

6. Don't you think it over polls Republicans?

[Loki Liesmith]

7. no

because the reported number is Party ID, not party registration.

Party ID changes depending on how respondents "feel" about a particular party.

[book_worm]

9. So you really think that there will be a 10-point swing in turnout

from 2012?

[Loki Liesmith]

12. Poll tells you nothing about R vs D turnout

Only whether or not the respondent is excited for the R vs D nominee. Some independents are reporting they they are R. A few dumb Ds too.

[Adrahil]

14. This poll uses a 2004 electorate model.

Do you think that's a reasonable estimate?

[Ace Rothstein]

15. Polls don't model by party.

[Adrahil]

18. It isn't just party I'm talking about....

Their demo model in general is a 2004 model. In other words, they think the minority vote is going to look like 2000... in complete contradiction to historical data.

[NWCorona]

8. It's the narrative that will be pushed behind this poll that is troubling to me.

Trump is bringing propped up while in the media's eye Hillary can do no right.

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Welcome to DU

[molova]

10. The media obsessed about Pneumonia

This poll reflects that. If the media decides to give the Trump Foundation proper coverage (Criminal inquiry in NY, missing donations, etc.) Hillary will lead again in the next poll.

If the media decides to hand Trump the Presidency, that's another story. The New York Times has been particularly awful in that respect.

[leebaba1992]

11. one good thing is:

only good that comes out of all this mess is that Hilary's expectations will lowered for the debate. The media will be obsessed with her "looking healthy". All she has to do is look healthy and speak intelligently like she normally does and the narrative will be positive towards her

[Johnny2X2X]

13. This is getting serious

Trump is still gaining in the polls and might be closed to tied. Just hold PA and we should win, but this is going to be a close election now.

[leebaba1992]

16. yeah. only thing keeping me sane is this

270towin map. its my worse case scenario but very possible
http://www.270towin.com/

[MohRokTah]

19. Give it a few days for more polls to come out.

Outlier or trend? Can't tell yet.

[Democat]

20. I think there will be a few days of bad polling for Clinton

We don't need more polls, because they will likely show the same bad numbers in the few days after 9/11. We need another week to pass to see where we are.

[MohRokTah]

21. I thjink that's bullshit

This poll used the demographics of 2004 for adjustment instead of 2012 demographics. I think it will be shown to be an outlier in the next few days,

[Democat]

22. Hopefully, in the next few days the numbers will reverse either way

So we can both be right.