There is an Ohio poll released by Bloomberg to day which shows trump ahead 5 points. It MUST be

[still_one]

pointed out that the Ohio poll being used is basing their sampling model on 2004, which assumes more republicans will turn out then Democrats, and it is reflected reflected that way in the poll

Sure we had a rough week with unbalanced media distortions, and the media setting an extremely low bar for trump, but we are going to be heading into the debates, and the major part of the campaign, and whether the media wants to discuss it or not, our candidate and the Democratic party will be talking about the issues that will affect Americans for years to come. The Supreme Court, the economy, the environment, civil rights, gender rights, and issues that will determine the direction of the country for decades to come

As long as we work to GOTV we will win. Nothing can or should be taken for granted

[CincyDem]

1. Let's not forget...

...Ohio is a fundamentally Republican state. 66% of the State Senate is R. 60% of the State Reps are R. Virtually EVERY state level elected official is R.

It wasn't always this way but these guys have figured out the local game plan and are doing a great job of squeezing out voters who might not be republicans. I swear these guys could pass a law that only registered republicans can vote...and they'd get it through the courts.

Ohio being blue is the anomaly. Ohio being red is the fundamental politics of the state.

[MohRokTah]

3. That's due mostly to gerrymandered districts, though.

Democratic districts typically have more than 60%, and in some cases more than 70%, going to the Democratic candidates in Ohio.

[CincyDem]

13. That might apply to the US Reps, State Reps, and State Senators...but...

...look at the state wide offices that aren't impacted by the gerrymandered lines (and I agree that the state has been carving itself up to benefit R's for at least 2 if not 3 census cycles).

I think the issue( and I say this as an Ohio Dem) is that Ohio Dems have gotten lazy...possibly due to that gerrymandering. We're going to win those 60-7% dem districts even if 60% of the Dems stay home. And we're not going to win the R districts even if we get 150% of the vote. So complacency sets in. Just a theory.

I don't know - maybe I'm just biased against the local Dem organization because they tend to toss up loyal, but weak, statewide candidates.

For my money, HRC wins Ohio and I'm knocking on doors to bring along some friends. Good news is that local neighborhood HRC office just opened (interestingly across the street from the former BHO offices...in a much much smaller space).

[BeyondGeography]

5. And Obama won it twice against much stronger candidates

So unless there has been a fundamental change in the electorate it should be very winnable.

[geek tragedy]

2. Probably not a good idea to get into unskewing polls.

Party ID is self-reported, and not tied to party registration.

It all depends on who turns out. Democrats' enthusiasm has been beaten down by the media piling on Clinton over every little trivial piece of bullshit while ignoring Trump's repeated lies and outrageous statements.

[molova]

10. No poll should be unskewed ever?

What happened in 2012 that Republicans wanted to skew EVERY poll, even Rasmussen.
You are pretending that absolutely no polls has a dubious party ID split.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. This election is just like having your team take a huge lead at the start and you

watch and hold your breath and hope the other side doesn't catch up.

IMHO (yes, only me)

Think our side needs some extremely clever strategy - Call in all the best minds and big guns ! Out of the box thinkers. Best Hollywood/NYC admen in biz. Call Jon Stewart and set up a meeting with Obama and his correspondent's dinner speech writer. come up with the best zingers ever to throw in at the debate.

No more self-inflicted wounds, handing Trump fuel on a silver platter.

Then focus only on the 273 she's got now. Focus on the handful of states with the smallest margin and send every Dem advocate there is.

[Democat]

7. They need every available Democrat working on Clinton's victory

So far, the campaign hasn't been very impressive, but hopefully now that Obama is getting more involved, things will change. His appearance at the Democratic Convention was a huge boost for Clinton.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. We've got to get the biggest guns out there. It will be a nightmare if the lunatic

sneaks in there and shocks us all just like he shocked the supporters of his 16 opponents in the primary.

What is totally and utterly amazing to me - that McCain, Romney, and even Jeb are seeming normal to me know. Can't say Cruz tho.

[LiberalFighter]

6. Thanks about the info regarding using 2004 model which has to be outdated.

I'm sure Hillary's team is not putting all of their eggs in one basket. And they understand the dynamics involved in each state.

[still_one]

8. Actually it was pointed out to me because I didn't read the details that carefully

and thought if I missed it, others could also

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141572256#post10

Things are so much different now than 2004, and I believe Democrats are much more motivated than the republicans in this election to GOTV.

I also agree with you that there are many paths to victory for us

[catbyte]

9. Even though it bit them in the ass in 2012, they still insist on using 2004 model?

Jesus H. Christ.

[MFM008]

11. Regardless

They use these outliars in the averages, drags her numbers down. Looks like a trend.