oh no! panic! hillary's odds of winning plummet! ... to the middle of the range since mid-march!

[unblock]

http://predictwise.com/

a measly 72% chance of winning!

she's had a commanding lead since december.

in early march it shifted to an even more commanding lead and has been bouncing between about 65% and 80% ever since.

recently it dropped from the top of that range to the middle of that range.


big whoop.

i'll take a 72% chance any day.

[writes3000]

1. Perspective! How refreshing!

[jberryhill]

2. "i'll take a 72% chance any day"

Okay.

If I hold a gun to your head and say "there's a 72% chance it is not loaded", you would say "okay, pull the trigger"?

[unblock]

3. ooh, it's the take it completely out of context game! can i play?

hmm, i'll go with ...

sure, go ahead! your gun is loaded with rhetorical blanks.

[jberryhill]

4. A 28% chance of a catastrophic result is a substantial risk

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Risk is not probability

Risk is probability*consequences

It is too late to modify the consequences. All we can worry about is probability.

[unblock]

6. Sure, but you can make the same point regardless

Whether hillary's chances go up or down, until the election, your point is the same.

It's not pertinent to changes in the odds or any picnicking about the odds.

[kcr]

7. What are the odds that we'll ever see an election with a 100% chance of winning?

Handwringing over these odds is silly.