Weird Florida: Trump 46, Clinton 42 - Trump: 44 % women, 42 % Hispanic 17 % dem,+ 20 white ind

[factfinder_77]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_FL_Sept_2016.pdf

Currently, Donald Trump has a 46-42% lead (which is almost identical to the July poll) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race, while 4% support third party candidates, and 8% are undecided. There are four facets to Donald Trump's lead: (1) Partisan - Republican voters favor Trump by a 76-14% margin, and this solid support is augmented with 53-34% support from white Independents; (2) Geographic - Florida's geographic regions are fairly predictable in their partisan voting patterns, and in this poll, overall geographic patterns of support are similar to those of 2012, with one exception: Mitt Romney only carried Central Florida 50-49%, while Trump has a 46-40% lead over Clinton in this crucial region (also known as “the I-4 corridor”) of the state; (3) Ethnic - While polls have shown that Trump is weak among Hispanic voters, the reality is more complicated in Florida, where the partisan breakdown of likely Hispanic voters is 39-31% Democratic/Republican (30% are not affiliated with the two major parties). Those of Hispanic origin in South Florida (particularly Miami-Dade) are historically Republican, while the growing Hispanic population in Central Florida is Democratic, but not unanimously nor consistently so. In this poll, Clinton has a narrow 44-42% lead over Trump among this demographic, largely due to Donald Trump’s having a 74-11% lead among Hispanic Republicans; and (4) Gender – there is currently a nine-point gender gap, as men favor Trump 48-39%, while women are tied 44-44%.
What will keep the race in Florida competitive is that Hillary Clinton’s Democratic voter base is solidly behind her as well, with an 81-6% lead among blacks, a 68-17% lead among Democrats (66-23% among white Democrats), and a 55-35% lead in South Florida, which voted 62-37% for Obama in 2012. However, she has to improve upon her showing among Central Florida voters, white Independents, women, and Hispanics if she wants to carry the state in November.

[molova]

1. Poll owned by Republican John Couvillon

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512411500

[factfinder_77]

2. but its alarming when the party registration of respondents was 43-39% Democratic/Republic, 18 % ind

The weak Clinton democratic support is freaking unbelievable.

[molova]

4. You once predicted Clinton and Trump will tie in Pennsylvania

Correct?

[factfinder_77]

6. Pennsylvania is a industrial northern states, and Trumps anti globalization message is working.

Pennsylvania's manufacturing industry employed over 550,000 people in 2010.
Bringing industry home resonate with the non-educated vote.

[molova]

7. Do you stand by your "tie" prediction?

?

[Sugarcoated]

9. Little paws isn't winning PA

He has to win by several hundred thousand in Philly and the burbs. Pennsyltucky isn't going to put much of a dent in that, so how about nope, lol

[DeminPennswoods]

12. PA is all about the big cities

Long time reader, first time member...

Here in Pennsylvania in presidential election years, it's all about the numbers in Philadelphia, it's 4 collar counties (Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester), Pittsburgh and Allegheny County, Erie and Scranton-Wilkes Barre areas. That's why Obama and other top Dems are visiting Philly and Biden has been to Scranton. Over the years, Philadelphia has gotten more Democratic as the more conservative types have moved out. State Dems will be looking for a 550,000+ margin coming out of Philly to offset the top R voting counties (Dauphin, Cumberland and Lancaster) in the southcentral part of the state. The other counties in the "T" are small with populations in only the several thousands.

In the western part of the state, the population is fairly homogenius, white, blue collar, high school education, some of the oldest populations in the state. I hesitate to call them racists, but bigoted and prejudiced for sure.

Probably the county to keep a real eye on is Centre County, home to Penn State and a few years ago was the second fastest growing county in the state.

Not too long ago, Rob Gleason, the state GOP chair, was quoted as saying Trump would win 60 of 67 counties. He might well, but Hillary will win the 7 counties where the vast majority of state residents live.

The other things the Dems have going for them is a new state chair in Marcel Groen. He helped turn Montgomery County blue and kept it there. He's far better than Jim Burn, a more conservative Dem.

[fleabiscuit]

14. Good information. Welcome to DU. eom

[vadermike]

3. NV OH

Also gone We be fucked God help our country

[Sugarcoated]

8. Oh, no

You better go change your shorts....

[RKP5637]

5. Polls are absurd. They can be twisted anyway one wants to obtain the desired responses. I had

to study that one year at the university. Believe me, they often are not indicative of what's going on because I think most are biased, the sources questionable, and often those polled from selected groupings.

[BlueInPhilly]

10. And.. the sky is falling again...

WTF is wrong with you people? Can't you see anything positive in our candidate? You are the very first ones to induce hysteria when a poll is not going our way.

Please stop. Just stop.

[pnwmom]

11. 538 gives JMC a C rating with a Republican bias. n/t

[book_worm]

13. I say don't even post obscure polls like this.