Nate Silver 538 and polls in general

[Farmgirl1961]

Are showing a bit of decline for Hillary Clinton. I'm not in panic mode, but do wonder whether there is a bit of a lag time from the weekend blitz on the "pneumonia-gate". Thoughts?

So, now with Barack Obama giving his fiery speech yesterday in Philadelphia and at least there being a crack in the wall with the breaking Newsweek story...anyone care to venture a guess about lag time on polls and whether there being a bit more coverage on the Trump Foundation and Bondi-gate will tend to push the need even further in Hillary's direction?

And then there's the issue of Daily Kos prediction now showing the Senate retake by Dems at 46%. Ugh....

[Democat]

1. I've never seen more DU posters with low post counts showing concern

Than today.

[Farmgirl1961]

3. I think we're all somewhat concerned

that the media just lambastes the hell out of Hillary and that in turn helps to prop up tRump.

[wncHillsupport]

4. Democat, what do you mean?

Are you saying us newer members are not qualified to post concerns? I am a realist. I lived through the media and the DNC and the Senate killing Hillary's campaign in 2008. I know it is possible for a majority to elect an idiot if it means not electing a strong woman. Especially this woman.

[radius777]

14. Lots of people sign up during general elections

with all types of concerns, especially since H/Dems are running a weak campaign against a historically weak opponent they should be destroying by now.

I've been reading and posting on DU since 2002 (forgot which accounts I've used, changed computers several times, made a new account again) on an off, especially during general elections.

2004 especially was intense around here, lots of people voiced concerns that Kerry should fight back harder against swiftboating, flip-flopping charges etc - and we were right.

[democrattotheend]

2. I think the polls will be bad for the next few days

Since the polls coming out today don't fully register the incident on Sunday yet.

Hopefully things will start to turn around after that. It really makes me angry that her being sick is being turned into some kind of a scandal. Why the hell was she obligated to disclose the pneumonia?

[Adrahil]

5. We have seen a tightening....

but most polls are still in Clinton's favor. Relax. I expect Clinton will bounce back in the next week as she gets back on the trail, and Obama hits the stump hard for her. We have those debates coming up, so a great opportunity to make progress there.

[Farmgirl1961]

6. It is hard to relax

When all the news...all the time is Trump this and Trump that, spun in a positive light. Apparently Nate Silver has called the presidential race "competitive".

I swear -- if Trump becomes President, it's the damn media's fault for kowtowing to him and his surrogates. They are aiding and abetting him and putting our country and the world at risk.

I realize I'm over reacting -- but I am concerned and wonder when the madness will stop.

[underpants]

7. As I said last night - we'll know next Tuesday

Last night not lady night. Stupid autocorrect.

[Farmgirl1961]

8. Every time I check Nate Silver 538

there's a down tick for Hillary and an uptick for Trump. What in the f*ck is going on? Is this just a particular bad day? She started the day at around 69.4% and is down around 65% and on the Nate Silver website "Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of winning". Yeah, she's still ahead by plenty, but what is this downward slide all about?

No - I'm no troll -- I'm just reporting what I'm observing -- and I don't like it one bit!

[radius777]

15. I agree with you and have the same concerns.

H/Dems are running a weak campaign against a historically weak and awful candidate, who should be getting destroyed in the polls by now. Team H squandered the lead they had during August, by not having a stronger/clearer message, by not being tougher and fighting back at negative (emails, healtherism, etc) media narratives and rw smears, by not having tougher surrogates on all of these shows.

They are letting us down. If Trump wins America as we know it will cease to exist.

[totodeinhere]

16. The thought that Trump might have a one in three chance of winning is just disgusting.

What's the matter with people?

[Farmgirl1961]

9. still downward drifting at Nate Silver 538

Just wondering why this downward drift is still occurring...thoughts??

[DesertRat]

10. Here are my thoughts

When I feel concerned, it helps me to DO something. It's easy for me to sit and the computer and start worrying. But that does nothing to help our candidates. I've been volunteering at my local Democratic office. I phone bank a couple of times a week. I enjoy meeting up with other Democratic volunteers and connecting with voters to talk about our Democratic candidates. It helps me to feel like I am actually doing something to affect change.

As we get closer to the election, I will continue to phone bank and I'll also start canvassing our neighborhoods. It's been proven that talking to voters on the phone and in person can and does make a difference.

[MADem]

11. I think DesertRat has some grand suggestions.

If you're good at talking to people, phonebanking is a good idea. There are lots of other volunteer opportunities, too. Don't fret, do! I think you'll feel better.

The polls are situational and ebb/flow with the news cycle and who happened to answer the phone (many just refuse nowadays) to respond to the pollsters.

There aren't that many undecideds. GOTV is going to win this contest, and you can help!

[DesertRat]

12. True, you don't have to just phone bank or canvass

At our Dem. office, some people stop by to donate snacks and drinks (bottled water and soft drinks) for the volunteers. Anything you can do to help the GOTV effort is helpful and much appreciated!

[Farmgirl1961]

13. I am very willing to GOTV

Oregon is a pretty blue state. It's those swing states I worry about. Ohio, Florida...seem to be swinging back toward Trump. Once again, I'm not a troll, but I'm not an ostrich with my head in the sand. Hillary and surrogates need to be out there day after day pounding the pavement and getting air time. The MSM leans Trump and Trump surrogates are sucking up the airwaves.