This is going to be a very close election. Much closer than 2012, let alone 2008.

[geek tragedy]

Trump is consolidating the Republicans and Republican-leaners because yes there are that many white voters in this country who are favorably disposed towards white nationalism, xenophobia, and authoritarianism.

Racism is very much alive in this country, and Trump's plan is to use racism to motivate his racist base to turn out.

There are enough racists in Ohio for him to win there (2 credible polls out today showing him up +5 there). There are enough racists in Florida for him to win there.

There are a lot of resentful white people out there. And a lot of dumbfucks.

If those who abhor racism don't turn out to vote, he could win the whole thing.

Clinton remains favored, but a lot of people got lulled into a false sense of security with the nonsense about landslides and him imploding and 400+ Electoral Votes.

Clinton is less favored now than Obama was on this exact date in 2012, according to 538.com

The real question is how does Clinton get her supporters to turn out.

We can still win this, but it's going to be a tough, brutal fight that will have everyone nervous up until the end.

[unblock]

1. i actually think it's not going to be close

i think hillary's going to bring out a lot of first-time voters the way obama did in 2008. a lot of women who never voted before will vote for her.

i don't think trump has the same effect. i don't think there are really so many intensely angry trumpies who weren't already voting republicans in the past. these are the same old anti-obama bigots. trump's merely let them feel they didn't need to hide it.

plus, i think trump's incompetence at basic political operations will bite him in the posterior in the battleground states. meaning even if he narrows the gap in terms of popular vote, he won't get it in the right places and hillary will still win comfortably in terms of electoral votes. 400+ has always been a pipe dream but 340 or so is certainly possible.

[geek tragedy]

2. data says it's the closest election since 2004 or even 2000.

There are a shit ton of stupid white racists in this country.

[unblock]

8. well the bigots were obviously voting when there was a black man on the ballot.

i agree that hillary's not getting the 365 votes we got in 2008, and could easily not quite get the 332 votes we got in 2012.

so in that sense, yeah, sure, "closer". but still not "close". there are many paths to 270 that it's hard to imagine a loss, and i don't think it will be a squeaker.

[geek tragedy]

10. Pretty easy to imagine a loss:

Trump wins:

Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
ME Congressional District

That gets him 270

Toss out the ME Congressional District, and it's a tie.

The good news is that the polling doesn't take into account GOTV efforts and field operations. Bad news is that it's unproven that modern GOTV efforts and field operations really do make a difference.

Obama had a better field operation in 2012 than he did in 2008, and still got a lot fewer voters (69M in 2008 vs 65M in 2012).

[unblock]

13. but realistically, he's more likely to lose than win the entire campaign, then pulls it out in nov?

i just don't see it playing out that way.

[geek tragedy]

15. *if* current trendlines hold it'll be a dead heat, jump ball before we get to October.

This is feeling less like 1988 and more like 2000.

[BobbyDrake]

3. Positive economic news this week will take time to disseminate.

It's not all doom and gloom, and there are still more non-racist whites than racists.

[geek tragedy]

4. Trump is handily winning white voters.

Trump isn't running on the campaign, he's running on white grievance, and that plays well with a lot of white people.

I would disagree that there are fewer racists than non-racists in the USA.

[BobbyDrake]

11. The white percentage of the electorate shrinks every year.

Trump is losing college-educates whites, something a Republican candidate hasn't done in almost 100 years. He's not making up for that with the bigot vote

[geek tragedy]

14. He's overwhelmingly winning less educated whites.

He is in fact making up for it with the bigot vote.

If I had to bet money on a number, I'd predict Clinton winning with 273 electoral votes. Instead I'm donating it to do my part to help her win.

[BobbyDrake]

17. You were so cool-headed during the primary, now you're apparently hysterical.

WTF happened to you?

[geek tragedy]

18. I'm not hysterical. I still think Clinton is favored to win.

But we've taken for granted that our coalition will show up for Clinton like they did for Obama.

Perhaps we should re-examine that assumption. Obama remains a much more inspirationally talented politician.

[yallerdawg]

5. It'll help if the Clinton campaign...

doesn't do anything stupid before the election!

[geek tragedy]

7. both campaigns will do stupid things, but only her campaign's errors matter.

Trump really is turning out to be Teflon. Nothing is sticking to him anymore.

[a kennedy]

6. closet tRump supporters will elect this arsehole........

[BobbyDrake]

12. What the fuck is with all this negative sky-is-falling bullshit this week?

Not helping.

[Va Lefty]

16. I worry too. 3-4% will vote for don the con but won't tell polls.

[stopbush]

9. Nope.

[oioioi]

23. She will win TX

[democrattotheend]

19. FWIW, 2008 and 2012 looked like they were going to be closer at this point

In fact, I think it was around now, right before the financial collapse, the 2008 election was tightening, McCain took a slight lead in some polls, and a lot of us were panicking, including me.

[geek tragedy]

20. According to 538's models, Obama had a 76% chance of winning 9/14/2012/

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

The heart attack moment in that campaign was after he tanked in the polls following his implosion at the first debate--his % chance went all the way down to 61%.

[MohRokTah]

21. PREDICTION: It will be closer than 2008, but not as close as 2012.

You heard it from MohRokTah first.

[LettuceSea]

22. If the strategy is blaming the white racists, we may get beat. Gotta stay positive