2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow is this race "tightening"??
Hillary kicks tRump's butt with POC and women yet the "experts" claim its tightening?
Something stinks. You cannot win this election without the POC and women vote. You can't.
Cattledog
(5,914 posts)Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)Outside his loathsome core of supporters, I fail to see how he inspires great enthusiasm.
SHRED
(28,136 posts)...uneducated white male voters for him to win is there?
NewHampshiriteGuy
(95 posts)A growing number of people who voted for Romney are now planning to vote for Trump...
However, a growing number of people who voted for Obama are now thinking of voting either 3rd party or not vote at all rather than vote for Hillary...
The damage of the primaries and the media onslaught against Hillary is taking its toll...
Sad, but seemingly true...
Too many dumbasses going 3rd party I guess and the rest of the dumbasses are voting for Trump...not enough of us who care for the future of this country left to keep this race from being a tight one.
vi5
(13,305 posts)Hillary's numbers look almost exactly the same as they did early in the primaries.
And that's not getting into the fact that if she's so easily damaged in a primary with tons of factors on her side and playing in her favor that it's highly unlikely she would have just coasted in a general election.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)White women are just about as racist as white men are.
The electorate is still going to be at least 70% white voters. If Trump wins 65% of white voters he only needs to win 15% of minorities.
And that assumes that minority voters will be as motivated to vote for Clinton as white racists will be to vote for Trump.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Enough already. Calm down and stop embarrassing yourself already.
ETA: And GOOD LUCK to Trump winning that 15% minority vote when he's polling in the low single digits among them!
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)The wider path may help explain why Mr. Trump is competitive in early general election surveys against Hillary Clinton. And it calls into question the prevailing demographic explanation of recent elections, which held that Barack Obama did very poorly among whites and won only because young and minority voters turned out in record numbers. This story line led Republicans to conclude that they had maximized their support from white voters and needed to reach out to Hispanics to win in 2016.
Those previous conclusions emerged from exit polls released on election night. The new data from the census, voter registration files, polls and the finalized results tells a subtly different story with potential consequences for the 2016 election.
The data implies that Mr. Obama was not as weak among white voters as typically believed. He fared better than his predecessors among white voters outside the South. Demographic shifts werent so important: He would have been re-elected even with an electorate as old and white as it was in 2004. Latino voters did not put Mr. Obama over the top, as many argued in the days after Mr. Obamas re-election. He would have won even if he had done as poorly among Latino voters as John Kerry.
This is all good news for Mr. Trump. Theres more room for him to make gains among white working-class voters than many assumed enough to win without making gains among nonwhite or college-educated white voters.
Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida. That puts us squarely in 2004 territory, not 2012.
Florida poll that shows Clinton losing also shows Obama with 51% approval.
Also, Romney won 17% of the non-white vote. It's not that crazy Trump could get 15%. Lots of downscale white voters that disdained Willard like Trump because of his vulgarity and celebrity.
Clinton is still favored to win. But Trump definitely has a path to victory.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)We know the NYT, as a media outlet, has a vested interest in an artificial horse race. We know that their coverage is unbalanced, designed to favor Trump and malign HRC. We know that they employ long-time columnists who fill the opinion page with anti-HRC nonsense. We know that even their supposed legitimate news articles have been exposed as over-hyped garbage and poorly researched manure.
And you're still going to cite one of their articles about a supposed "secret reserve" of older white voters? Even as a sentence in the middle of your own quote undermines your own argument?
The data implies that Mr. Obama was not as weak among white voters as typically believed. He fared better than his predecessors among white voters outside the South. Demographic shifts werent so important: He would have been re-elected even with an electorate as old and white as it was in 2004. Latino voters did not put Mr. Obama over the top, as many argued in the days after Mr. Obamas re-election. He would have won even if he had done as poorly among Latino voters as John Kerry.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)It's top notch.
I have absolutely zero doubt that President Obama would mop the floor with Trump.
But he's not on the ballot.
This could be statistical noise and a function of bummed-out Dems having low response rates in polls due to media coverage.
But the available data shows a razor-thin lead and a trendline going in a very bad direction.
ailsagirl
(22,897 posts)I think the pollsters are making it seem like a close race because they're sick and tired of always reporting that HRC will win. With slightly less than two months left (god, can you believe it?), I think they're making it look close to spark some interest, or spirit of competition, or something-- anything to liven things up. Then, as Nov. 8th nears, things will fall back into place.
Otherwise, the fact that dumdum's transgressions are looking worse every day is causing massive numbers of people to decide they want him to lead our country. Now, does that make even one iota of sense?
BUT I'm not saying we can rest on our laurels-- the battle is still on and complacency is ANATHEMA!!