Poll: Michigan Trump 47% Clinton 45%
Ok....not really, I just love a sense of symmetry. You see 4 years ago, I posted a thread with the same title here. It was after the first debate, Obama was being hammered by the media and the polls pulled into a romney lead. The people here were in full on panic mode because for a few days, Romney was barely ahead. We still had about 6 weeks until the election and everyone was already declaring Mittens the winner. Why post such a jarring tread title? Perhaps a bit of petty revenge for all of the worrywarts polluting the community with extreme negatively but more to do with the old trick of slapping someone that is hysterical to get them to focus.
So lets focus and get some perspective before you hit the alert button. We have a few bad polls for our side today. A tie in Nevada and Florida, and Trump up by 5 in Ohio. I might believe Nevada and Florida as a tie right now but I doubt the Ohio +5 just because it is such a sudden, and jarring result but irregardless we need to keep a few things in mind. First, off the Trump surge as of late puts cheeto face in his best position in a long time, which is still really bad. Around the low 200's for his EV count. After all of these ebbs and flows in the polls, where he has never even pulled into a tie, do we really expect that all of a sudden, because Hillary got pneumonia, that he will surge past her? It is difficult, when being bombarded by doom and gloom to think that the worst possible scenario has come to life. 4 years ago, after the first presidential debate, it was easy to think "the debates have changed everything, romney looks like he is going to win." Then what happened, a week or two later, Obama was in the lead again and never looked back. Sure, 1 day of polling can be distressing. I remember back in May, when a slew of polls came out showing Trump suddenly ahead of Clinton in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, feeling a bit of concern and frustration. So was the near tie they pulled into post-republican convention. You look at those results and say "how can anyone want this guy to be president?". But throughout the ebbs and flows of the campaign, even when it seemed at its darkest, the clown quickly faded back. The problem really is fundamentals. The demographics of this country just don't work for Trump's candidacy. Sure, today, we have articles talking about how all of a sudden, young adults, hispanics, blacks have tuned out of the election and Clinton's hope of holding the Obama coalition together is in ruins. All of a sudden, for no reason. Last week, it was fine. But this week, nope, gone.
This is the problem when something defies explanation. You can look at a poll from Ohio suddenly showing Trump up by 5 and be dumbfounded or think "there is no way that minority voters suddenly don't care about the election." And there is a good reason to be dumbfounded because none of that really makes sense. Sensational headlines are good at generating clicks but without an explanation or a blantely obvious cause, it makes no sense in the broader context. And maybe that is because its a fluke or a transient period before everything regresses to the mean. I'm sure, after being whipped into a panic today, the idea that Trump is suddenly ahead in Michigan seemed realistic, even though it too would make no sense.
The point is, its important to take a broad prospective, not look at one day of polling in isolation and point to one meaningless event, like Hillary getting a little weak kneed over the weekend, as the defining moments of the campaign. Remember, this is a long game. A poll from ohio in September, the media bashing Hillary for a few days, Trump giving Dr. Oz a piece of paper to prove he is the picture of health, these are brief moments. In a day or a week, they won't matter. Long term issues are what matter and long term polls readings are what is important. Elections don't change on a dime, that is just an illusion created by the media. Hillary has been consistently ahead since June 2015 in the polls and she is still ahead today. Its not a tie and Trump isn't ahead. That too, when looked at objectively, is an illusion.
Sure, we could be living in the world of the worst case scenario and Trump could win in November. Its not impossible but its also very unlikely. It could rain tomorrow and it could just keep raining until your neighborhood is under 40 feet of water. Or it could just rain for 1 day. Don't let the media suck you in. We had a bad day of poll numbers. Maybe Trump is going to keep gaining and win easily. Or maybe its just a bad day.
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final 50 days...
