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book_worm

(15,951 posts)
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 07:53 PM Sep 2016

Just remember folks...

1) most of these polls were taken in the time period where Hillary was getting a lot of negative press and then her "health scare." From what I can tell that is fading. I think Trump had a good week polling wise, but now he is getting more negative reporting. One more word about the polls. Many of these pollsters are under the assumption that turnout will benefit the GOP rather than the Dems so many of these polls have more republican respondents. They did the same thing in 2012. President Obama regularly did best when polling "registered voters" and less well when pollsters switched over to "likely voter" screens. I think Gallup had Romney regularly ahead. Obama did better than the polls indicated in the actual election.

2) She is now feeling better and going to be up on the campaign trail. She has great surrogates like President Obama, FL Michelle Obama, VP Biden, Sen. Warren and Sen. Sanders. We have a great team--who does he have? Rudy, Christie and Newt--pathetic.

3) We have three presidential and one vice presidential debate. I honestly don't think that Trump can bluster his way thru these debates and (hopefully) the media will do its job. Hopefully with the criticism they got for the "Commander in Chief" forum they will. I believe that Hillary will be on her game, knowledgeable and presidential. I also think that the VP debate will have a strong performance by Sen. Kaine who should really hit Pence for his very right wing views and his not disavowing David Duke.

4) We have a great GOTV organization in the key states and many more campaign offices set up working on GOTV and making sure people get out and vote early. One of the advantages that Hillary had in the primaries was getting her supporters to bank their votes early.

5) Polls indicate that third party candidates Johnson and Stein are hurting Clinton more than Trump. Since neither of them will be in the debates the focus will be more and more off of them. Third party candidates usually fade in the last weeks of the campaign. George Wallace in 1968 was at one point at 25% of the vote and wound up with 13% (mostly from the South) and John Anderson in 1980 did even worse--around 25% in some early polls and then wound up with 6.7% in the general election.

6) Finally, if you are discouraged make sure you redouble your efforts at helping the Democrats win. I volunteer every weekend phoning or knocking on doors. It makes me feel good because I see many people who are enthused about voting for the Democrats.


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Just remember folks... (Original Post) book_worm Sep 2016 OP
Half the Johnson/Stein vote. Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #1

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
1. Half the Johnson/Stein vote.
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 07:59 PM
Sep 2016

Also, I do not see how Adolf Trump can win Ohio/Florida when he has no ground operations.

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