My gut worry about the polling shift toward Donald Trump

[geek tragedy]

We're in a tied race, and it's largely because Trump is only 9.5/10 on the crackpot scale instead of 11/10 lately.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-polls-worry-2016-9

But here's the thought that's making me nervous: What if the shift in the polls is more about Donald Trump campaigning better?

Specifically, what if it's about the fact that he brought in a reasonably competent campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, on August 17, started listening to her advice, and became somewhat less self-destructive and more on message?

For example, Trump has resisted the temptation to talk extensively about Clinton's pneumonia, instead staying focused on the "basket of deplorables" comment that he and his team clearly believe works to his advantage. He has gotten more attention for his positive policy messages. He even pulled off a nonembarrassing meeting with the president of Mexico.

Most important, he has so far avoided a repeat of the sort of episodes that seemed to be most damaging to him in the campaign: his attacks on low-profile people on the basis of religion or ethnicity, such as those against Khizr Khan and Gonzalo Curiel.

These of course are all very low bars I am describing Trump as having cleared, and he has continued to make various outrageous statements and face various scandals.

But low bars might be the right measure for the "Can Trump win?" question.

For most of this campaign, Trump has been polling just a few points behind Clinton despite running a comically inept campaign. What if running a merely somewhat inept campaign is good enough for him to catch up?

Clinton can't count on Trump defeating himself. So, what's her message other than "Trump is a dangerous stupid racist?" They need an answer to that, pronto.

[geek tragedy]

2. neither candidate in our primary was a particularly strong general election candidate, for different

reasons

New Hampshire will probably decide the presidency.

It's really appalling how well white nationalism and authoritarianism work on the national level.

Our country is really sick on a deep level that we didn't realize before Trump began running.

[Missn-Hitch]

13. I saw this cauldron brewing and starting to steam with GWB.

We are at full boil now. Cheers.

[vi5]

3. Good luck to you.

[duncang]

4. A few points to bring up

One even though the polls are tightening in some swing state he has to carry all of them. Not just one or two. He loses one he still loses. Next Hillary we all know has been sick the last few weeks. So even though she has been out there she probably hasn't been running at full force. Being able to get that rest she needed to get over the pneumonia she will be back in full force. Personally I think her poll numbers will be coming back up if not next week the following week. Add to that expect more of her surrogates to be out on the trail. The other day dipshit got shut down completely to just being in the little box in the corner of the screen when President Obama spoke on cnn. Expect more of that. Also I am pretty sure she will be highlighted the same way and dipshit stuck in the little box since she has been away this week. Next media is finally starting to say something is rotten in the dipshit campaign. I don't know if they will have the guts to continue, but hope they do.

[geek tragedy]

6. Bush pulled it off in 2004. And Trump is in a way running his playbook.

But instead of pushing turnout via anti-gay rhetoric, he's pushing turnout via anti-immigrant rhetoric.

I'm not comforted by the idea that New Hampshire will decide the presidency.

[NCTraveler]

10. Bush tried to run an inclusive campaign. Completely different from what Trump is doing. nt.

[First Speaker]

5. Trump won't be able to hold it in until November...

...we'll see the real Trump explode sooner or later...his hissy fit about the preacher in Flint might be the beginning of this process. I have faith in him...

[Kilgore]

7. There is another reason

My perspective if from a rural working class Democratic area.

Hillary does not connect out here. Full comments at http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028165764 see post #8

[bettyellen]

8. She doesn't connect with men there. I know a lot of urban women who don't talk about Hilary till

They know it is saw to do so. People are still being jerks about the primaries and we don't even want to talk to the more rabid Trump folks.

[geek tragedy]

9. that's a problem, bigger problem is that she's not connecting with Latinos and younger voters.

She's relying on surrogates to connect for her (Obama, Sanders, Warren, Biden). Doesn't work that way.

[B2G]

11. His telepromter speeches are getting better. nt

[Cosmocat]

12. There is absolutely something to this

It took a half dozen shakeups, and I think she is pretty deplorable, but Conway is the first person who has been able to muzzle the dolt to an extent.

A bit part of this is the horse race shit from the media and they over compensated once again to allow this con man to really be in the game.

I mean, if they just simply reported on the two most signficant issues in this campaign BY FAR, his ties to Russia and the ACTUAL scandal with him and Bondi like they have piled on Hillary for three weeks now over the e-mail bullshit, and her healthy, it would probably stretch back out.

[pnwmom]

14. She has a message, they're just not reporting it. Today both campaigns released

policy statements, but only his is getting reported. That's typical.

[Democat]

15. It was never a good strategy by the Clinton campaign

They should have destroyed Trump in August when he was down, rather than taking a break.

[Azathoth]

16. This race has always been about Trump

Hillary is going nowhere. Not up, not down. It doesn't matter what her message is or what kind of ads she's running, from a campaign perspective she's locked in place. There isn't a single American who doesn't have a fixed opinion of her, and I can say from personal experience that many of them are looking desperately for a way to vote against her while still being able to sleep at night. All Trump has to do is act just sane enough to give them that opening.

[stevenleser]

17. The race is close enough now that the debates will likely decide it. nt

[geek tragedy]

18. that's rather worrying, considering that one of these candidates is literally a television performer

by trade and it's not the one who'd make a good president.

[stevenleser]

19. I hear you. The good news is, enough of the folks who swing elections won't be impressed by his

shtick.

Some will but most won't. Assuming nothing else dramatic happens before election day the debates will provide Hillary a 3-5 point margin of victory. The folks who provide the difference between whether a Democrat or Republican wins actually do care about competence.